STEP 0 AUDIT -- the "already partly live" premise was half true: the CODE
is wired, the axes are NOT firing. Across 634 graded prod rows the
environment and matchup axes fired on ZERO rows, while 13 archetype axes
fired normally (power 80, swing_miss 69, contact 56, launch 51,
line_drive 43, ...) plus opportunity 142. Ledger confirms it from the
other side: env_multiplier, env_park_base, env_weather_mod, wx_forecast
and env_weather_state are ALL null on 634/634.
ROOT CAUSE, located rather than inferred. A drop-off audit against the
live snapshot: with_team_field 0/120, with_bats 0/120, with_playerId
120/120, oppPitcherByTeam 0, handById 0. `team` is a KEY on every stored
grade and NULL on 416/416 -- so an environment resolver keyed off the
player's roster team could never find a venue, while buildContext sat
there with all 30 teams mapped and 14 weather forecasts resolved and
unused. Coors composes to 1.241 the moment it gets a key.
FIX -- and it is the more correct join, not just a workaround. The park
and the weather belong to the GAME, not to the player's roster team, and
the game rides on the prop from the odds feed. gradeBestSide now carries
home_team/away_team onto the graded row (the legacy grade shape dropped
them), and contextFor joins on the game first, keeping the roster team as
a fallback. This no longer depends on a stats-resolve that can
legitimately fail.
MATCHUP/PLATOON IS NOT FIXED HERE and is not claimed as fixed: it needs
the opposing starter and both hands, and the audit shows
oppPitcherByTeam=0, handById=0 and bats=0 on the slate -- three separate
absences. Per "one axis at a time" that is its own order with its own
diagnosis, not a second fix smuggled into this one.
Champion p_win, ranking, calibration and opportunity_drift's accruing
verdict are all untouched.
Gates: 4,077 tests / 326 suites green; next build exit 0.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QJs13VsyiSKYQP6rj3NNmc
Champion p_win and the live grade path are BYTE-IDENTICAL: the axis writes
only to p_win_challenger / challenger_adjustments in the ledger.
STEP 1 -- MAP THE INPUT. MLB_LOG_FIELD now maps at_bats -> 'atBats'.
Deliberately NOT added to outcomeService's map or liveTracking's
LIVE_BOX_FIELD: those exist to SETTLE and TRACK graded props, and nothing
grades at-bats, so adding it there would imply a settlement path for a
market we do not carry. A test asserts the settle map still lacks it.
STEP 2 -- DRIFT, NOT LEVEL. opportunity_drift = mean(last-5 atBats) /
(season atBats / games). The LEVEL is collinear with l20_avg (same
games denominator; hits/game ~= (hits/AB) x (AB/game)), so the projection
already embeds it multiplicatively and adding it would double-count. A
deviation from the player's own baseline is the part the projection does
not contain.
HONEST ABSENCE throughout: fewer than 3 at-bat rows, no at-bats in the
logs, or no season baseline all leave drift UNDEFINED -- never 1.0 by
default and never 0. Number(null) === 0 here would read as "zero at-bats",
the strongest possible fade, invented from missing data. Four tests cover
the absent paths.
STEP 3 -- THE AXIS. opportunityNudge composes in the same log-odds space
as park and platoon (log of a ratio), with two guards the measured axes do
not need: a +/-10% DEADBAND (a rest day or a blowout can move a 5-game
window without any role change) and a tighter cap (0.15 vs the
environment's 0.30) so a noisy PROXY cannot outvote measured signals.
Every adjustment carries is_proxy: true and
proxy_for: 'confirmed_batting_order' so nothing downstream can mistake it
for a lineup feed.
The axis can stand ALONE -- without it the early return would gate
opportunity off on exactly the thin-classification rows it is most likely
to help.
Zero extra I/O: analyzeViaEngine1 attaches drift from the feature vector
it has already built, and attachChallenger reads it off the grade. Nothing
re-fetches in a loop that runs over hundreds of props.
COLLINEARITY GUARD added to the coverage probe: Pearson r of drift against
l20_avg / l5_avg / ab_per_game, returning null under n=8 rather than
reporting a correlation on a handful of rows. If drift just re-encodes the
projection, the axis is dead signal and gets shelved.
Gates: 4,073 tests / 326 suites green; next build exit 0.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QJs13VsyiSKYQP6rj3NNmc
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