PHASE 0 caught my own repeat of the failure I diagnosed one order ago.
91927a4 attached `served_grade` BESIDE the old letter and left `grade`
alone -- so the honest grade reached nobody, exactly as gradeBands had
been built-correct-and-unread. grep showed served_grade appearing in one
file (where I set it) and all 14+ consumers -- scan route, dashboard,
parlay, newsletter, desk, content templates, retention -- still reading
`.grade`, i.e. still the dishonest letter.
CUTOVER IS NOW TOTAL: legacy.grade IS the honest letter. Overwriting the
one field every consumer already reads cuts every surface over at once
instead of editing fourteen call sites and missing one. engine1's index is
preserved as `engine_grade` and verified read by ZERO serving code.
Confidence follows the letter: it came from a grade-band midpoint of the
OLD letter, so leaving it would have paired a served B+ with a C's
confidence. Both now derive from p_win, kept on the existing 0-100 scale.
MEASURED BLAST RADIUS before shipping: 303 of 47,991 non-refused
snapshots (0.6%) have a grade but no p_win, and now render NO READ instead
of a letter. That is correct -- their old letter came from the retired
index carrying 0.48% resolution, i.e. noise -- and NO READ is a rendered
state with a reason, so never-blank holds.
PHASE 1 — the ceiling is now a STATED POSITION, not a confusing absence.
servedGrade.SCALE_LEGEND plus web GradeScaleLegend.tsx say it plainly: we
do not issue A grades, no band has hit at a rate that would justify one,
our honest ceiling is a strong B+ (~66% realized vs ~60% baseline), and if
the model earns an A the legend changes and we say why. The
separates_from_base_rate flag renders per band -- C+/C/C- are labelled
"we cannot separate this from the baseline", which is most of any slate.
PHASE 3 hand-verified across every state: B+ with 3 factors (basis
forecast_plus_matchup_factors), B+ with none (forecast_only), C flagged
not-separable, F, and three refusal states rendering NO READ with reasons.
never-blank PASS, no-manufactured-A PASS.
Test fallout was real and is documented rather than papered over: engine
BEHAVIOUR assertions moved to engine_grade, suppression assertions stayed
on grade (a suppressed prop has no letter either way), and the confidence
78 -> 95 change is the grade-band midpoint being replaced by p_win.
No A-threshold loosening. No calibrated number leaks (deployed set empty).
p_win never mutated. Ten frozen modules verified unchanged including
engine1 and probabilityEstimator. No Bonferroni slot.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01W1sivYNqY2TS5ftykmHBU9
Follow-up to the rare-event under fix — the whitelist (doubles/triples/HR/SB)
was fragile: the same juiced-under problem exists for steals, blocks, and any
other low-frequency market, and a new stat would slip through.
The real signal is the book's own price. The doubles unders were priced -625 to
-1100 — laying 6-11x to win 1x on an ~82% event, with no value the model could
recover. So the PRIMARY guard is now stat/sport-agnostic: analyzeViaEngine1
refuses any read whose graded-side odds are past the juice floor
(JUICE_ODDS_FLOOR, default -400, env-tunable). That catches every version of
this — steals, blocks, anything — and it also keeps the public record honest
(those -800 "wins" hit ~82% of the time and would inflate the hit rate, the same
class as the projection-0 degradation).
The structural rare-event rules stay as the BACKUP for props with no odds
(list also expanded cross-sport: + steals, blocks). Normal + longshot prices
(-110, -250, +600) are preserved. 16 tests cover both layers.
Reported: the doubles projection was REAL per-player (not a fallback); the fix
is the price guard, not a bigger list.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Betting-logic audit: the CONSENSUS-vs-MODEL board flooded with fake reads like
"DOUBLES u0.5 · MODEL 0.2 · +edge" — the juiced under side of rare counting-stat
markets (doubles/triples/HR/SB), which is never a takeable edge and violates the
no-unders-default doctrine.
Report finding (item 3/4): the doubles projection is REAL per-player, not a flat
fallback — 'doubles' maps to a real game-log field (MLB_LOG_FIELD doubles→
doubles) and the live values varied (0.03/0.16/0.2/0.22). So no projection-gate
refusal for fakeness; the problem is purely structural (a rare event's real
projection always sits below a 0.5 line, so the under always "wins").
Fix (config-driven — src/config/rareEventMarkets.js, tunable stat list + line
threshold):
- Grade layer (analyzeViaEngine1): a rare-event UNDER at ≤0.5 is always REFUSED
(grade null + suppressed flag/reason). A rare-event OVER at ≤0.5 is refused
UNLESS the model genuinely projects the event above the line — because a
0.2-over-0.5 carries the SAME |edge| as the suppressed under and would just
take its rank on the board. The over grades normally once projection > line.
- Board layer (marketBreadth.collectBreadth): drops null-model rows so a
suppressed/ungraded prop can't rank a "MODEL —" placeholder onto the board.
10 suppression tests + config locks; also fixed a settingsPage book assertion
left over from the ESPN→theScore swap. Suite 274/3289 green, web build exit 0.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
builtbykev