REPORT-FIRST per the arc order. G-a is HELD — the data changes the
recommended dials. No engine code touched.
Replayed against live ledger_entries (576 rows, 6 game days, 470 settled)
because the "30 days of stored snapshots" does not exist: snapshot Redis
keys are latest/previous only at 24h TTL, and no backtest harness exists
anywhere in the repo.
Findings that change the plan:
- The -400 floor shipped this morning was the whole win: past -400 hit
80.3% against an 86.9% breakeven = -13.29u / -7.7% ROI on 173 settled.
- Arc 2's incremental cut over the live gate is ~11 props in 6 days. The
only material change is gating the flex band behind 2x EV.
- The flex band (-161..-250) is our BEST band (+2.2% ROI, n=70) and the
takeable band is flat (-0.3%, n=209) — the opposite of the assumption
behind EDGE_FLEX_WALL. Recommend shipping the knob with enforcement
OFF until EV is persisted and measured.
- ev_pct/p_win are on NO ledger row, so the EV half of the gate cannot be
replayed at all. C-led (persist EV) is now the highest-leverage item.
- Confidence is monotonic but understates hit rate by ~20-25 points, and
the entire public ledger contains only B and C grades — zero A/A+.
That breaks hero v2 (isAB) and undermines "A-RATED" copy. Escalated.
- L-a answered: alt_lines carry NO odds and the feed has no alternate
markets. L-b is blocked on a data source, not engine work.
- C-led needs no odds backfill (locked_odds 99.1% populated).
- U-deg: the projection==0 leak is already closed (0 since 07-18).
- C4 confirmed in data (359/376 MLB closes == the lock). Stays suppressed.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01SmNjJAwEnqHPtXbvSZR8kA
Arc 1 (7a925f4) shipped without a spec and without a STATE.md entry — the
plan lived only in a session context that was lost. Both written from the
code on disk, not from memory.
- STATE.md: header was stale at a8e383e; now 7a925f4 (pushed, NOT yet
deploy-fingerprinted). New top section records de-vig + EV + takeable/
value gates + hero v2 + the value triplet, the real config values, and
the 274/3289 -> 276/3306 test baseline.
- specs/model-train.md (NEW, per CLAUDE.md rule #1): every knob and its
ACTUAL default (TAKEABLE_ODDS_CEILING -160, TAKEABLE_ODDS_MAX +200,
VALUE_EV_THRESHOLD 2, JUICE_ODDS_FLOOR -400, RARE_EVENT_LINE_MAX 0.5);
the gate AS BUILT (flat price-only refusal at -400 pre-feature, NOT
edge-aware, no -250 wall; the -160..+200 band never refuses a grade and
is enforced on the hero alone); the triplet + hero v2; and a checklist
of what is NOT built.
Recorded honestly rather than assumed: EDGE_FLEX_WALL, HARD_JUICE_WALL,
LADDER_ODDS_MAX and MIN_RUNG_PROBABILITY do not exist in the codebase; no
frontend reads ev_pct/fair_odds/model_odds/book_odds/suppressed_reason yet;
the value fields are ungated to free tier; a second EV implementation
(processing/EVCalculator.js) still coexists with devig.evPct.
No engine code touched.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01SmNjJAwEnqHPtXbvSZR8kA
builtbykev