74aa75945e83355b9be9ef7719e822e60cba314b
4 Commits
| Author | SHA1 | Message | Date | |
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 builtbykev
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f0543b57a4 |
Product identity + widen books for DISPLAY, model input byte-identical
IDENTITY (CLAUDE.md top + MASTER-PLAN header). VYNDR is a PREDICTIVE MODEL: it projects what a player will DO and picks accurately. Market edge is a BYPRODUCT of a good prediction, never the success criterion. Success = the forecast is honest about its own confidence AND still ranks -- calibration and resolution, both. No edge/CLV term belongs in a pass/fail gate; they are diagnostics we report, not thresholds a model must clear. A model tuned to beat a closing line has been fitted to the market instead of to the game. Per-sport doctrine (Phillips 2022, classify by what players DO not by position): each sport is its own model -- own variables, archetypes, conditions, calibration, honest ceiling. Shared across sports: ONLY the Bayesian inference math. Truth Law: no fabricated data; honest-absent over invented; label limitations in-band; provisional stays provisional until re-run; documented is not verified. PHASE 2 -- AGGREGATOR WIDENING (live). normalizeProps now emits every DISPLAY book instead of 5 of 18. Before this we discarded 13 books of our own accord and 64.8% of the MLB slate was invisible to users. Every prop carries book_role (both/takeable/reference/dfs/offshore) so the display layer can say WHAT a price is -- a fixed-payout DFS number and a two-way sportsbook price are not interchangeable objects. Unknown books are still dropped. PHASE 3 -- MODEL GATE (the model does not move). bookRoles splits MODEL_BOOKS (the legacy allow-list, character for character) from DISPLAY_BOOKS. Both model paths re-filter before they pick a line: gradeSlateService.dedupeProps (before first-row-wins AND before the limit) and intradayRefreshService.indexOddsProps (which RE-GRADES at the current line -- without the gate, widening would have silently moved locked lines onto books the model has never been calibrated against). A test asserts the graded set is byte-identical through the widening. CURRENT_RULER_VERSION stays v1_first_book. The gate lifts only when the MLB calibration is re-run on the consensus ruler and v2 is promoted. HONEST FRAMING, recorded in the plan: this is an AGGREGATOR win and it does NOT fix the model. WNBA still abstains -- a model problem, not a coverage problem; it is better covered than MLB. MLB isotonic still provisional. The consensus is MARKET, not SHARP: pinnacle, matchbook and polymarket are 0% on both sports, so no sharp anchor exists in our feed. Two superseded tests updated to stronger properties rather than deleted: roleOf now names the KIND of book, and the normalizer test asserts the display set widens WHILE the model set does not. Gates: 4,027 tests / 322 suites green; next build exit 0. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QJs13VsyiSKYQP6rj3NNmc |
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builtbykev
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77a58e4113 |
Arm harness on our scheduler + start closing-line capture (capture only)
PART A — HARNESS ARMED ON OUR OWN INFRA. snapshotScheduler now runs the
nightly backtest at HARNESS_HOUR_UTC (default 14), appends to
harness_results, and pages via opsWatch.harnessStaleAlarm — a validator
that stops running looks exactly like one that keeps passing. No external
dependency: the join is plain SQL through the service client and the
harness is a pure function. POST /api/internal/harness/run induces the
same code path on demand, because a scheduled mechanism is verified by
inducing it, never by waiting for a slot.
PART B PHASE 0 — GATE PASSED for what is capturable:
- C4 diagnosed: closing_line is ONE overwritable field with no timestamp
and no provenance. captureClosing writes the current line and, when a
prop fails to match, silently leaves the earlier value (= the lock) in
place — so "captured a real close" is indistinguishable from "never
updated". It is 92% equal, not 100%: 56 rows DID record movement, so
the defect is provenance, not the value.
- Feeds: normalized props already carry BOTH raw side prices per book,
with game_time, and the intraday refresh polls every ~20 min during
slate hours — so the last observable pre-lock line is available.
- SHARP close: pinnacle is in ALLOWED_BOOKS -> a no-vig reference is
capturable ("beat the market").
- ODAWA: NOT capturable. 'odawa' exists only as a UI preference option in
onboarding/settings; it is in no adapter, no ALLOWED_BOOKS, no feed. An
un-capturable source is a finding, not a gap to paper over.
- JOIN: must drop `line` from the natural key, because a close that MOVED
off the graded line is the entire point of CLV. Verified safe — all 164
current identity groups have exactly ONE line per
(sport, player_key, stat, side, game_date). Zero ambiguity.
PART B PHASE 1 — CAPTURE ONLY, built test-first. The refusal was proven
before the capture logic existed: unbound game_time, doubleheader
ambiguity, a missed pre-lock window, or a one-sided price all record
missed_reason with NO price. A stale or mid-day line substituted for a
close would manufacture a CLV proof from a number that was never the
close.
migration 029 closing_captures: append-only, never overwritten (that is
the provenance C4 lacked), BOTH raw side prices so the existing de-vig
engine can compute a fair closing probability later, sharp vs book line
types kept distinct. Wired into the intraday refresh with a capture-rate
alarm — a missed close is unrecoverable.
NO CLV metric built, as ordered. This starts the clock.
Suite 284/3417 green, build exit 0.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01SmNjJAwEnqHPtXbvSZR8kA
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builtbykev
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d3637e7abd |
S6 (a1): display — the full picture under the grammar
- specs/ROW-GRAMMAR.md: the row grammar law (slot order, color law, mark
law, mobile stacking, no-truncation), locked by tests/unit/rowGrammar.
StatStrip violations fixed: MovementChip before the grade (market
context before model output); ViabilityChips after the archetype
(identity is one contiguous run).
- Line-movement sparklines: intradayRefreshService.trackHistory captures
real {t,line} points per grade (seeded with the lock, deduped when
flat, capped 24) inside the snapshot write-back; StatStrip.LineSparkline
renders at >=3 points (green toward / amber against / dim flat).
- Last-10 dot strips: services/last10Dots (streaksService accessors) ->
/api/snapshot/:sport attaches last10_dots from rosterlogs:{sport};
StatStrip.DotStrip renders vs the LOCKED line, newest first.
- CLV distribution: getModelAggregate emits clv_distribution (7 signed
buckets, outliers clamped) only past the centralized n>=20 gate;
ledger MODEL header renders the bar strip.
- Global search: SearchModal (cmd-K via GlobalHosts + window.__search),
players via /api/players/search per sport + static lib/teams.js
(soccer deliberately absent); Nav search icon + Search first in the
mobile More sheet. Explore tab untouched.
- Landing LCP: fade-up floored at opacity .6 (hero h1 contentful on
first frame, S33 visible-floor rule) + IBM Plex Mono preload:false
(4 decorative font files off the slow-4G critical path).
2654 -> 2698 tests (226 suites) green; web build exit 0.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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builtbykev
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9ae64516e6 |
Session D (night2): Phase 2.5 — intraday refresh + directional movement
Odds-only refresh every 20 min during slate hours (noon–midnight ET), in-process (INTRADAY_REFRESH=0 kill switch; skips full-snapshot slots): - signed delta RELATIVE TO THE GRADED SIDE; direction is the signal. - WITH the grade → STEAM badge, never a re-grade. - AGAINST >=1.0 → re-grade THAT PROP ONLY at the real current line: holds/refuses → VALUE (better entry, same read); drops → PUBLIC revision (grade updates, revised_from_grade preserves the ORIGINAL forever, UI strikethrough on slate strips + ledger cards). - Every run recaptures closing_line/odds → the close is now refresh- fidelity; SYNC goes live by dropping SNAPSHOT_EXPECTED_INTERVAL to 1200. - Ticker MOVE events feed from the refresh (>=1.0 moves). - QUOTA MATH: 36 runs/day/sport x 4 sports <= 144 PropLine calls/day vs 9,000/day free capacity (3 keys x 3,000). Re-grades are internal compute. - POST /api/internal/refresh/all for manual runs. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> |