Steps 1-6 — make "real opportunities at takeable prices" the engine, not a filter.
1. DE-VIG (src/utils/devig.js): two-way multiplicative de-vig strips the vig and
returns fair prob + fair price per side + the overround. One side missing →
fair UNAVAILABLE (null), never faked. Method noted in code + the `devig_method`
field.
2. EV (devig.evPct): ev_pct = model prob × decimal − 1 at the graded side's
ACTUAL price. This is the ranking signal now, replacing raw |model−consensus|.
3. TAKEABLE gate (src/config/valueEngine.js, TAKEABLE_ODDS_CEILING −160 .. +200,
env-tunable): promoted surfaces only (hero/featured/alerts). The full board
still shows everything; Parlay Lab exempt; JUICE_ODDS_FLOOR (−400) stays the
absolute backstop underneath. Strict null-guard (Number(null)===0 would have
made a missing price "takeable").
4. VALUE flag: passes BOTH gates (takeable AND ev_pct ≥ VALUE_EV_THRESHOLD).
Grade = read quality; value = the price pays you. Shipped in payloads.
5. HERO v2 (heroPropService): highest ev_pct among takeable A/B reads — a huge
gap on a −900 line is trivia, not an opportunity.
6. VALUE TRIPLET: book_odds · fair_odds · model_odds on every read (snapshot,
hero, scan — they all spread the grade). Handoff documents the fields; the
rendering is Session-2 Design's job.
All wired in analyzeViaEngine1's existing p_win/kelly block (real quantile
probability × real book odds, or nothing). 33 new tests; suite 276/3306 green.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Follow-up to the rare-event under fix — the whitelist (doubles/triples/HR/SB)
was fragile: the same juiced-under problem exists for steals, blocks, and any
other low-frequency market, and a new stat would slip through.
The real signal is the book's own price. The doubles unders were priced -625 to
-1100 — laying 6-11x to win 1x on an ~82% event, with no value the model could
recover. So the PRIMARY guard is now stat/sport-agnostic: analyzeViaEngine1
refuses any read whose graded-side odds are past the juice floor
(JUICE_ODDS_FLOOR, default -400, env-tunable). That catches every version of
this — steals, blocks, anything — and it also keeps the public record honest
(those -800 "wins" hit ~82% of the time and would inflate the hit rate, the same
class as the projection-0 degradation).
The structural rare-event rules stay as the BACKUP for props with no odds
(list also expanded cross-sport: + steals, blocks). Normal + longshot prices
(-110, -250, +600) are preserved. 16 tests cover both layers.
Reported: the doubles projection was REAL per-player (not a fallback); the fix
is the price guard, not a bigger list.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Betting-logic audit: the CONSENSUS-vs-MODEL board flooded with fake reads like
"DOUBLES u0.5 · MODEL 0.2 · +edge" — the juiced under side of rare counting-stat
markets (doubles/triples/HR/SB), which is never a takeable edge and violates the
no-unders-default doctrine.
Report finding (item 3/4): the doubles projection is REAL per-player, not a flat
fallback — 'doubles' maps to a real game-log field (MLB_LOG_FIELD doubles→
doubles) and the live values varied (0.03/0.16/0.2/0.22). So no projection-gate
refusal for fakeness; the problem is purely structural (a rare event's real
projection always sits below a 0.5 line, so the under always "wins").
Fix (config-driven — src/config/rareEventMarkets.js, tunable stat list + line
threshold):
- Grade layer (analyzeViaEngine1): a rare-event UNDER at ≤0.5 is always REFUSED
(grade null + suppressed flag/reason). A rare-event OVER at ≤0.5 is refused
UNLESS the model genuinely projects the event above the line — because a
0.2-over-0.5 carries the SAME |edge| as the suppressed under and would just
take its rank on the board. The over grades normally once projection > line.
- Board layer (marketBreadth.collectBreadth): drops null-model rows so a
suppressed/ungraded prop can't rank a "MODEL —" placeholder onto the board.
10 suppression tests + config locks; also fixed a settingsPage book assertion
left over from the ESPN→theScore swap. Suite 274/3289 green, web build exit 0.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Diagnosis (why 500/500 went unpaged): the only regular odds-api burner was
futuresService, which called axios DIRECTLY — bypassing the gateway, so it
never hit recordCall (the ONE place the WARN/BLOCK pager fires) and never
respected the 95% block. It only syncFromHeaders, which updated the counter's
number SILENTLY. oddsService (which does go through the gateway) only touches
odds-api when PropLine fails, so recordCall for odds-api effectively never ran.
Result: the counter could reach 100% with neither pager firing.
Fixes (a silent drain is now impossible, not just guarded):
- futuresService routes through gateway.fetch('odds-api', …) → counted, blocked
at 95%, and reserve-gated. Closes the raw-axios bypass.
- Reserve floor in the gateway: a DISCRETIONARY call (futures/soccer) passes
reserve=ODDS_API_RESERVE (default 50) and is refused while remaining <= reserve.
The ESSENTIAL MLB prop-backup passes no reserve and may spend to the 95% block.
→ a futures/soccer drain can NEVER starve MLB's backup path.
- quotaTracker.syncFromHeaders (the AUTHORITATIVE number) now fires the same
once-per-period WARN/BLOCK alert on a crossing — extracted fireThresholdAlert
shared with recordCall. The header-only drain now pages.
- POST /api/internal/quota/test-alert (internal-key) test-fires the pager
end-to-end so ntfy delivery is verifiable on demand.
Also (reality-corrected cadence): WNBA restored to the full grid. 2026-07-15
had two AFTERNOON WNBA games finished before the 22 UTC slot — 14 UTC (10am ET)
is the only slot early enough for a 1pm ET game's props, and on PropLine the
extra slots cost a rounding error. Soccer stays the only trimmed sport (the
real odds-api discipline). Assumption corrected by observed data.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Every ACTIVE sport was graded at all five MLB slots (14/19/22/1/3 UTC). Sports
post lines on different clocks, so that inheritance was wasteful both ways:
WNBA props aren't posted at 14:00 UTC (10am ET) → that slot always graded 0
(the audit's "wnba:0"); soccer odds come from the 500/MONTH odds-api key, so
five slots/day is a third of the budget for 1-2 matches.
New src/config/sportCadence.js is the single source of truth (config-over-
constants). Mapped from reality + quota headroom (PropLine 9k/day abundant,
odds-api 500/mo scarce):
mlb 14/19/22/1/3 intraday (full grid — games+props all day)
nba 14/19/22/1/3 intraday (in-season fits; off-season self-skips empty)
wnba 19/22/1 intraday (afternoon→evening ET; drops the 14/3 waste)
soccer 14/19 NO intraday (WC live; 2 lean odds-api reads, key-protected)
The scheduler still fires at HOURS_UTC and the missed-cron watchdog still
references MLB (which runs every grid hour) — each slot now grades only
sportsForHour(h), and only intradaySports() get the 20-min refresh. Every
sport's hours are kept a subset of the firing grid (a boot-time guard + a test
warn if that's ever violated). Retune a sport by editing one table row.
Adaptive, not constant: near-zero when a sport is quiet, protecting the scarce
odds-api quota from being drained by noon.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
PROMISE-AUDIT.md: every /pricing claim → verified/built/reworded.
BUILT (was vapor): alt line ladder + edge ranking (same-features regrade
at shifted lines, Desk-gated at the API), quarter-Kelly (engine quantile
P(win) x real captured odds — either missing → no sizing), free-tier
kill-condition locked previews. FIXED (was false): analyst 15/day cap vs
the Founder 'Unlimited reads' promise → analyst unlimited; every '40+
factors' claim (real count: 22 named features) reworded truthfully in 7
files. VERIFIED: cascade alerts (real, wired), phi correlation,
leg history, cross-book comparison, WC soccer, real-time feed.
Locked by tests/unit/promiseAudit.test.js. Jest now ignores
.claude/worktrees (parallel agents' suites no longer leak into runs).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
builtbykev