Commit Graph

20 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
builtbykev f33091ddb8 Layer 3 Step 4b: public park base, source-pluggable, plus game-level capture
PHASE 0 — the settle path sees a player's game-log line, not the game. It knows
date and teams, never venue or final totals. But the grain is far cheaper than
per-prop or even per-game: ONE statsapi schedule call per game DATE returns
every game that day with venue, linescore and scoring plays. Fifteen games, one
call, verified live.

PUBLIC BASE — the ingestion was already done. The static FanGraphs table from
Session 15 is the public base; this converts its 100-indexed values into the
multipliers the composable architecture wants (Coors 128 becomes 1.28) rather
than ingesting a second copy of a number we already hold.

It is labelled COMMODITY in the code, not just in a comment. Every resolution
carries a provenance record, and the public one reads proprietary: false with
the note "Commodity: a public number. Not a VYNDR derivation." The proprietary
label exists but belongs only to the self-derived version, and only once it
beats this base on the instrument. A surface rendering a park effect can state
which it is rather than implying the flattering one.

Honest-absent where even the PUBLIC number is thin: a relocated club in a
temporary venue gets no factor, because a public number for a park with one
season behind it is no more trustworthy than ours would be.

SOURCE-PLUGGABLE is the architectural point. resolveParkBase() is the only
accessor, public and derived return identical shapes, and callers never branch
on source — so when self-derived factors clear their floor they swap into the
same slot with nothing downstream to rewrite. A derived source with no factor
available returns absent rather than silently falling back to public, because a
silent fallback would make a proprietary claim out of a commodity number.

GAME-LEVEL CAPTURE starts now because it cannot start retroactively. Game grain,
deduped on game_id, never copied onto prop rows — a game's totals belong to the
game, and duplicating them per prop is how one fact starts disagreeing with
itself. Every field is tied to a named future derivation: venue for park
factors, runs for the run environment, HR totals for HR factors. Nothing else is
stored. Only Final games are captured, since an in-progress total is not a
result, and a game with no scoring plays reports HR as absent rather than zero.
HR totals come from scoring plays, which is complete because every home run
scores at least the batter.

The accrual target is stated rather than promised: 150 home games per venue at
roughly 81 per season means about two seasons before a self-derived factor can
be nominated, and accrualStatus() reports live progress per venue so the wait is
measurable.

Induced: Coors home runs +0.061 for the hitter and identically +0.061 for the
pitcher's home-runs-allowed at the same park, mirrored on the under; San
Francisco negative; Tampa flagged weather-N/A with its factor still applying;
the Athletics' temporary venue absent; strikeouts untouched. A real 2025-07-19
capture produced 15 games across 15 venues, 12 with HR totals, zero duplicate
game ids.

Migration 035. Induce with POST /api/internal/gamectx/:date, progress at
/gamectx/accrual. Tests 3688 passed / 298 suites, web build exit 0.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VCNgGSt5qvcLxaeQqa7Zpj
2026-07-21 01:20:29 -04:00
builtbykev 528cb1a6d0 Layer 1: Statcast mechanism-data ingestion (backfill + nightly refresh)
The data foundation for the archetype and projection layers, built as the
pattern every sport inherits. Layers 2 and 3 are not touched.

PHASE 0 GATE — both match rates measured live, both 100%. Batters 40/40;
PITCHERS 66/66 across five real rosters (CLE, DET, MIN, NYY, LAD) joined by
MLBAM id against the 713-pitcher Savant feed. Zero honest-absent on identity,
because the join is an integer both systems use natively — and the snapshot
pipeline already stores it per graded row.

SOURCE — five Baseball Savant CSV leaderboards, free and public, pulled with
axios and the CSV parser savantAdapter already runs in prod. pybaseball is
deliberately NOT used: it is an MIT wrapper over these same URLs, and adding it
would reintroduce a Python runtime in a stack where the existing Python service
is already offline. min=1 on every feed, not Savant's default min=q, so the
long tail arrives and OUR minimum-sample gate decides what is thin — explicit
and testable rather than silently dropped upstream.

Measured: 1,354 rows per season (604 batters, 750 pitchers), all five feeds in
about five seconds. Pitcher mechanism includes arm angle, GB/FB/LD, chase and
whiff; batters get exit velo, launch angle, barrel and hard-hit, chase and
z-swing. Handedness rides in free on the movement feed (677 pitchers); batter
handedness stays absent pending a roster join rather than being guessed.

BACKFILL AND REFRESH ARE THE SAME CALL — a full re-pull upserted on
(sport, season, source_id). Idempotent and self-healing: a missed night
self-corrects on the next run, with no incremental who-played bookkeeping to
drift out of sync. At 1,354 rows the simple thing is also the robust one.

HONESTY RULES, each with a test: a metric the feed did not carry is null and
never 0; a thin sample is STORED and flagged rather than dropped or inflated,
because thin and missing are different claims; an unjoined player is stored
with a null player_key and joins later; and if every feed comes back empty the
job REFUSES to write, so a bad night can never blank a good table.

Freshness is treated as a truth property. updated_at on every row, and the
scheduler pages on a failed run AND on silent staleness — a job that stops
being scheduled never produces a failure, so staleness has to alarm on its own.
Never-built is deliberately not stale: different condition, different fix, and
paging on a fresh install teaches the operator to ignore the alarm.

Nightly at STATCAST_HOUR_UTC (default 11 UTC, after every game is final), kill
switch STATCAST=0, and induce-able at POST /api/internal/statcast/refresh with
a freshness probe at /statcast/status — we verify a refresh by running it, not
by waiting for the slot.

Migration 030 applied. Promoted columns for the classification-critical metrics
plus a metrics JSONB carrying every raw field, so Layer 2 can reach something we
did not promote without a re-ingest. Raw per-pitch stays out of Postgres on
purpose: one season is ~0.85 GB against a 500 MB plan ceiling, and it is
re-pullable from the free source if Layer 3 ever needs it.

Pattern documented in docs/MECHANISM-DATA.md for NBA tracking and NFL Next Gen.

Tests 3581 passed / 292 suites, web build exit 0.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VCNgGSt5qvcLxaeQqa7Zpj
2026-07-20 21:37:30 -04:00
builtbykev 77a58e4113 Arm harness on our scheduler + start closing-line capture (capture only)
PART A — HARNESS ARMED ON OUR OWN INFRA. snapshotScheduler now runs the
nightly backtest at HARNESS_HOUR_UTC (default 14), appends to
harness_results, and pages via opsWatch.harnessStaleAlarm — a validator
that stops running looks exactly like one that keeps passing. No external
dependency: the join is plain SQL through the service client and the
harness is a pure function. POST /api/internal/harness/run induces the
same code path on demand, because a scheduled mechanism is verified by
inducing it, never by waiting for a slot.

PART B PHASE 0 — GATE PASSED for what is capturable:
- C4 diagnosed: closing_line is ONE overwritable field with no timestamp
  and no provenance. captureClosing writes the current line and, when a
  prop fails to match, silently leaves the earlier value (= the lock) in
  place — so "captured a real close" is indistinguishable from "never
  updated". It is 92% equal, not 100%: 56 rows DID record movement, so
  the defect is provenance, not the value.
- Feeds: normalized props already carry BOTH raw side prices per book,
  with game_time, and the intraday refresh polls every ~20 min during
  slate hours — so the last observable pre-lock line is available.
- SHARP close: pinnacle is in ALLOWED_BOOKS -> a no-vig reference is
  capturable ("beat the market").
- ODAWA: NOT capturable. 'odawa' exists only as a UI preference option in
  onboarding/settings; it is in no adapter, no ALLOWED_BOOKS, no feed. An
  un-capturable source is a finding, not a gap to paper over.
- JOIN: must drop `line` from the natural key, because a close that MOVED
  off the graded line is the entire point of CLV. Verified safe — all 164
  current identity groups have exactly ONE line per
  (sport, player_key, stat, side, game_date). Zero ambiguity.

PART B PHASE 1 — CAPTURE ONLY, built test-first. The refusal was proven
before the capture logic existed: unbound game_time, doubleheader
ambiguity, a missed pre-lock window, or a one-sided price all record
missed_reason with NO price. A stale or mid-day line substituted for a
close would manufacture a CLV proof from a number that was never the
close.

migration 029 closing_captures: append-only, never overwritten (that is
the provenance C4 lacked), BOTH raw side prices so the existing de-vig
engine can compute a fair closing probability later, sharp vs book line
types kept distinct. Wired into the intraday refresh with a capture-rate
alarm — a missed close is unrecoverable.

NO CLV metric built, as ordered. This starts the clock.

Suite 284/3417 green, build exit 0.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01SmNjJAwEnqHPtXbvSZR8kA
2026-07-20 12:05:16 -04:00
builtbykev 2bfae804da Verify off-box presence by reading the remote dir back
Exit 0 from the backup script is deliberately tied to ON-BOX durability,
so it is not proof the off-box copy landed. GET /api/internal/backup/offbox
runs rsync --list-only against BACKUP_REMOTE using the SAME pinned
known_hosts as the push (checking never disabled) and returns the dumps
actually present, with size and timestamp — so off-box presence is a
verified fact rather than an inference from an exit code.

Needed because the dev box cannot authenticate to the Storage Box: the
authorized key installed there is Kev's ~/vyndr-backup-key, not the
keypair generated in-session, so independent verification has to run from
the container that does hold working credentials.

Suite 280/3338 green, build exit 0.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01SmNjJAwEnqHPtXbvSZR8kA
2026-07-20 01:14:38 -04:00
builtbykev c4c9b97604 Off-box backup: pin the host key, guarantee the remote dir, page on failure
PHASE 1 — HOST KEY STATICALLY PINNED. ssh-keyscan -p 23 returned an
ED25519 key whose fingerprint EQUALS the out-of-band value
SHA256:XqONwb1S0zuj5A1CDxpOSuD2hnAArV1A3wKY7Z3sdgM, so it is safe to pin.
scripts/storagebox_known_hosts now carries that verified line and ships to
the container (Dockerfile already COPYs scripts/). backup-db.sh uses
StrictHostKeyChecking=yes + UserKnownHostsFile=<pin> instead of
accept-new, which was trust-on-first-use and would have accepted an
impostor on the very first run. A missing pin file REFUSES the push rather
than silently falling back. Never weakened to accept-new/=no//dev/null —
a test asserts that on executable lines.

PHASE 1b — REMOTE DIR GUARANTEED. The box has only .ssh/, and rsyncing a
file into a missing parent either fails or silently writes the dump AS the
directory name — one file, overwritten nightly, reading as "backups exist"
while retaining exactly one. Uses rsync --mkpath when available, else an
explicit remote mkdir -p ahead of the push.

PHASE 2b — FAILED OFF-BOX PUSH IS NOW LOUD. Off-box is required, so the
failed-push path pages at "urgent" (was "low"/deferred) and the script
emits a machine-readable OFFBOX_OK=1/0/deferred that
POST /api/internal/backup/run surfaces as a distinct offbox_ok field.
Exit code deliberately still reflects ON-BOX durability — a good on-box
dump must not raise a false total-failure alarm. Surfacing the truth, not
manufacturing a failure.

No key material is echoed anywhere; only the PUBLIC host key is committed.

Suite 280/3338 green, build exit 0.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01SmNjJAwEnqHPtXbvSZR8kA
2026-07-20 01:10:23 -04:00
builtbykev 97e4dc72d5 Backup: chown /app/backups in image + report uid/writability
The real backup run failed: pg_dump could not write to /app/backups —
'Permission denied'. Cause: the container runs as the non-root 'vyndr'
user (Dockerfile USER vyndr) and the Coolify-mounted volume is
root-owned, so the mount is present but unwritable.

- Dockerfile now creates AND chowns /app/backups to vyndr alongside the
  existing /app/data + /app/.pm2 line. Docker seeds ownership into a
  NAMED volume on first creation, so this fixes it for a fresh volume;
  a host bind-mount still needs a host-side chown, which is why the
  next change exists.
- GET /api/internal/backup/verify now reports process uid/gid,
  backup_dir_writable and the access errno, so the exact chown target is
  observable instead of guessed. A mounted-but-unwritable volume reads as
  'configured' everywhere else — this makes it loud.

Suite 278/3310 green, build exit 0.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01SmNjJAwEnqHPtXbvSZR8kA
2026-07-19 22:30:37 -04:00
builtbykev ef7f17610f Backup: durable on-box volume, off-box DEFERRED, and a real read-back check
BACKUP_DIR is now a persistent volume (/app/backups), so the dump already
survives redeploys — the container-ephemeral risk that made this urgent is
closed. Storage Box SSH auth is not sorted yet, so the off-box push is
explicitly DEFERRED rather than failing:

- gated on BACKUP_OFFBOX=1 (plus BACKUP_REMOTE and BACKUP_SSH_KEY); until
  then the script logs "off-box push DEFERRED" and exits clean.
- if an enabled push DOES fail, it is a LOW-priority "deferred" notice, not
  a failure — the durable on-box dump succeeded, and calling that an
  incident would train us to ignore backup alerts.

Adds the read-back check, because a backup nobody has read is a hope:
countRowsInDump() runs `pg_restore --data-only --table=X -f -` and counts
the rows between `FROM stdin;` and the terminating `\.`, proving the
archive CONTAINS the data rather than merely parsing. Needs no Postgres
server, so it runs inside the API container. Validated against a real
pg_dump from a scratch Postgres: counted exactly 604 rows.

GET /api/internal/backup/verify exposes it (newest dump in BACKUP_DIR,
size, table, rows_in_dump). Unit tests inject spawn/fs so CI needs neither
docker nor pg_restore.

Suite 278/3310 green, build exit 0.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01SmNjJAwEnqHPtXbvSZR8kA
2026-07-19 22:27:58 -04:00
builtbykev 40aba37f83 Backup: env-injected SSH key, nightly off-box push, triggerable run
Closing the backup for real. Three changes, each fixing something that
would have made the Storage Box target fail or silently rot.

1. SSH KEY COMES FROM ENV, not from the container. Generating a keypair
   inside the API container was the obvious move and it is wrong: the
   container filesystem is ephemeral, so the key dies on the next
   redeploy and the off-box push starts failing silently. backup-db.sh
   now reads BACKUP_SSH_KEY (a Coolify secret), writes it to a 0600 temp
   file per run, and removes it on exit via trap.

2. PORT 23, verified live. Hetzner Storage Box runs full OpenSSH on 23;
   port 22 answers with mod_sftp (SFTP only). Banner-checked both against
   u635423.your-storagebox.de. rsync now uses
   -e "ssh -p ${BACKUP_SSH_PORT:-23} ... -i <key>"; the old invocation had
   no -e at all and would have gone to 22.

3. OFF-BOX PUSH IS NIGHTLY, not Sundays-only. A weekly push meant up to
   six days of dumps existed ONLY inside an ephemeral container, which is
   the same as not existing. Alert copy updated to say exactly that when
   the push fails or is skipped.

Also adds POST /api/internal/backup/run (internal-key gated) so a real
backup can be TRIGGERED and OBSERVED — it returns exit code, duration,
output tail, and whether the remote + ssh key are configured. The backup
can only run where SUPABASE_DB_URL and the Supabase route live (this
container), and there was no way to fire or inspect it without a shell.

Connectivity established this session: Storage Box reachable from the dev
box on 22/23; Supabase :5432 NOT reachable from WSL2 (so the dump must
run in-container, as designed); docker IS available locally, so the
restore-verify can run against a scratch Postgres using the real dump.

Suite 278/3305 green, build exit 0.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01SmNjJAwEnqHPtXbvSZR8kA
2026-07-19 21:42:27 -04:00
builtbykev 2d413cfe1e Quota guard: close the silent odds-api drain + reserve floor for MLB
Diagnosis (why 500/500 went unpaged): the only regular odds-api burner was
futuresService, which called axios DIRECTLY — bypassing the gateway, so it
never hit recordCall (the ONE place the WARN/BLOCK pager fires) and never
respected the 95% block. It only syncFromHeaders, which updated the counter's
number SILENTLY. oddsService (which does go through the gateway) only touches
odds-api when PropLine fails, so recordCall for odds-api effectively never ran.
Result: the counter could reach 100% with neither pager firing.

Fixes (a silent drain is now impossible, not just guarded):
- futuresService routes through gateway.fetch('odds-api', …) → counted, blocked
  at 95%, and reserve-gated. Closes the raw-axios bypass.
- Reserve floor in the gateway: a DISCRETIONARY call (futures/soccer) passes
  reserve=ODDS_API_RESERVE (default 50) and is refused while remaining <= reserve.
  The ESSENTIAL MLB prop-backup passes no reserve and may spend to the 95% block.
  → a futures/soccer drain can NEVER starve MLB's backup path.
- quotaTracker.syncFromHeaders (the AUTHORITATIVE number) now fires the same
  once-per-period WARN/BLOCK alert on a crossing — extracted fireThresholdAlert
  shared with recordCall. The header-only drain now pages.
- POST /api/internal/quota/test-alert (internal-key) test-fires the pager
  end-to-end so ntfy delivery is verifiable on demand.

Also (reality-corrected cadence): WNBA restored to the full grid. 2026-07-15
had two AFTERNOON WNBA games finished before the 22 UTC slot — 14 UTC (10am ET)
is the only slot early enough for a 1pm ET game's props, and on PropLine the
extra slots cost a rounding error. Soccer stays the only trimmed sport (the
real odds-api discipline). Assumption corrected by observed data.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-15 18:07:14 -04:00
builtbykev fc0c7bfd18 Merge S7 (a1): newsletter — THE VYNDR REPORT
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

# Conflicts:
#	BUILD-STATE.md
#	CLAUDE.md
2026-07-11 14:32:18 -04:00
builtbykev 0e7871ac0e S4 (a1): the media engine — VOICE templates, /desk, Ghost drafts
4a VOICE v1.1 committed (board start); lint is EXECUTABLE — banned list +
   no-exclamation law enforced in the engine (throws in test, drops in
   prod) and locked by tests. Curly-apostrophe variants covered.
4b mediaEngine: deterministic templates (MORNING WIRE, SIGNAL, STREAK
   WATCH, THE SETTLE, RECEIPTS, ARCHETYPE WATCH, LINE DISPATCH) filled
   ONLY from snapshot/ledger/streaks JSON. Record percentages never render
   under n>=20 (counts + 'Record building' below). Stark layer = curated
   committed library (content/stark-lines.json), day-rotated selection —
   selected, never generated.
4c /desk (founder-only: requireAuth + DESK_OWNERS email allowlist,
   deny-by-default): all formats as text + <=280-char pre-segmented tweets
   with per-tweet copy buttons + char counts, wire/numbers-only variants,
   DATA BRIEF block (structured day numbers) with copy-for-claude.ai.
   ntfy ping after the day's first snapshot: 'Desk pack ready'.
4d ghostPublisher: DRAFTS ONLY (status:'draft' test-locked), env-gated
   no-op, HS256 JWT via node crypto (zero new deps). POST
   /api/internal/ghost/drafts saves slate preview + settle drafts.
   Nothing anywhere auto-posts.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-11 14:31:35 -04:00
builtbykev 32d7200571 S7 (a1): newsletter — THE VYNDR REPORT
Email capture + daily report assembly + operator-triggered Listmonk send.

- NewsletterCapture (dark terminal, mono) on landing (below FAQ) + /welcome
  (the real signup success surface); double-opt-in note; 'Signups open soon'
  when Listmonk env is unset.
- POST /api/newsletter/subscribe: public, 10/min IP limit, honeypot,
  server-side email validation, forwards to Listmonk subscribers API with
  preconfirm_subscriptions:false (Listmonk sends the confirmation).
  No env -> calm 200 { ok:false, reason:'not configured' }. Next proxy
  web/src/app/api/newsletter/subscribe/route.ts (S25 rule).
- newsletterService.buildDailyReport: signals from snapshot:{sport}:latest,
  STREAK WATCH via rosterLogs -> streaksService -> streakLens, THE RECORD via
  ledgerService.getModelAggregate (percentage only when hit_pct != null —
  n>=20 gate — else 'RECORD BUILDING · N pending'). RG footer (21+,
  1-800-GAMBLER, Listmonk-native {{ UnsubscribeURL }}) in html + text.
  VOICE v1.1 lint locked by tests: no '!', no banned vocabulary, numbers
  only from injected pipeline data.
- sendDailyReport: creates + starts a Listmonk campaign; env-gated no-op;
  refuses an empty report. Deliberately UNSCHEDULED — only
  POST /api/internal/newsletter/send (internal key) triggers it.
- docs/NEWSLETTER.md: box-side Listmonk runbook (install, double-opt-in
  list, API user, Coolify env, test-send).
- Spec: specs/feature-a1-s7-newsletter.md.

Tests 2398 -> 2429 (207 suites, all green); next build exit 0.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-11 14:29:22 -04:00
builtbykev 9ae64516e6 Session D (night2): Phase 2.5 — intraday refresh + directional movement
Odds-only refresh every 20 min during slate hours (noon–midnight ET),
in-process (INTRADAY_REFRESH=0 kill switch; skips full-snapshot slots):
- signed delta RELATIVE TO THE GRADED SIDE; direction is the signal.
- WITH the grade → STEAM badge, never a re-grade.
- AGAINST >=1.0 → re-grade THAT PROP ONLY at the real current line:
  holds/refuses → VALUE (better entry, same read); drops → PUBLIC revision
  (grade updates, revised_from_grade preserves the ORIGINAL forever, UI
  strikethrough on slate strips + ledger cards).
- Every run recaptures closing_line/odds → the close is now refresh-
  fidelity; SYNC goes live by dropping SNAPSHOT_EXPECTED_INTERVAL to 1200.
- Ticker MOVE events feed from the refresh (>=1.0 moves).
- QUOTA MATH: 36 runs/day/sport x 4 sports <= 144 PropLine calls/day vs
  9,000/day free capacity (3 keys x 3,000). Re-grades are internal compute.
- POST /api/internal/refresh/all for manual runs.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-11 00:51:00 -04:00
builtbykev d296e40cb6 Session 58: Phase 1 — Truth Infrastructure (2327 tests)
ledger_entries is live (migration 019 applied to prod, RLS + NULLS NOT
DISTINCT dedupe verified against the real database). Every grade now
persists, settles against the real result, and carries closing-line value.

- ledgerService: pipeline pre-grade upserts (public model record, user_id
  null, idempotent), closing capture on every snapshot (last write before
  game start = the close), settlement with SIGNED CLV (over = locked -
  closing; beat/faded/flat), 30d model aggregate with the hard n>=20 rule.
- Write paths: snapshotService -> ledger (priority path); Next /api/scan ->
  ledger for authenticated users only (anon never touches the public
  record). Refused reads write nothing and don't burn a scan.
- Honest refusal (work-order 1.5): no projection => insufficient_data,
  grade null, "INSUFFICIENT DATA - no read" UI. The web gradeAdapter no
  longer displays the line as the model projection (the audit's
  model==line / +0% edge degenerate); the card renders absent states.
  projectionFor is sport-aware (l5 -> l20 -> {stat}_per_90 -> xG).
- /ledger: MY READS | MODEL tabs; model header shows hit% + beat-close%
  only at n>=20, else RECORD BUILDING + live pending count. ModelRecord
  deferred-render strip on landing + player hero. CLV + outcome chips,
  revised_from_grade strikethrough (Phase 2.5 ready).
- SYNC (Task 5): thresholds vs SNAPSHOT_EXPECTED_INTERVAL (normal <1.5x,
  amber >=1.5x, STALE red >=3x) via /api/snapshot/summary.
- Phase 2.5 logged in specs/vyndr-roadmap.md (build after Phase 3).
- Data-semantics hardening: strict null-safe numeric parsing everywhere a
  market value is handled (Number(null)===0 would have fabricated lines).

Backend 2309 -> 2327 tests (201 suites), web build exit 0.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-10 21:34:26 -04:00
builtbykev 2ae8a5697e Session 56: Full audit — PropLine + boxscore + pipeline + sport coverage (2289 tests)
Research (verified against live MLB Stats / ESPN / The Odds APIs):
- specs/propline-audit.md — every stat_type mapped against our 4-layer pipeline;
  real MLB boxscore fields; sport coverage status; pipeline gap analysis.
- specs/vyndr-roadmap.md — priority-ordered Sessions 57–64 + coverage targets.
- scripts/propline-audit.js + specs/audit-data/ (raw capture).

Headline bug: oddsNormalizer mapped batter_rbis → 'rbis' while the whole
grade/feature/outcome chain keys on 'rbi' — every PropLine RBI prop silently
failed to grade AND settle. Fixed (+ regression test).

Phase 4 — wired missing MLB stats end-to-end:
- PropLine MLB markets 6 → 12 (+runs, walks, doubles, earned_runs, hits_allowed,
  outs — same request, no extra quota).
- doubles/outs/triples added to featureCache + outcomeService MLB_LOG_FIELD and
  all three grade whitelists (analyze/scan/validation.py).

Phase 6 — pipeline resilience:
- opsNotify.js: ntfy alerts (never throws, test-disabled). Snapshot success/
  stale/failure alerts; retry-once on hard odds error (not on empty slate).
- Missed-cron watchdog (mostRecentExpectedSlot/isSnapshotOverdue); status probe
  now returns `overdue`.

Coverage truth: MLB is the only end-to-end-live sport; outcome settlement is
MLB-only (WNBA/NBA/soccer never settle) — documented as the #1 roadmap gap.

Backend 2276 → 2289 tests (+13). Web build exit 0.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-10 17:00:29 -04:00
builtbykev d09a06c054 Session 55: Self-learning loop + real-time layer (2274 tests)
Product overhaul core — the two transformative, differentiated systems:

Self-learning loop (Phase 2): outcomeService settles locked snapshot grades
against real MLB Stats API results → hit/miss/push, rolling accuracy by grade
tier (30d window). Idempotent, injectable, unit-tested. New GET /api/accuracy +
/api/ledger/accuracy + internal settle triggers + cron hook. AccuracyBadge
(dashboard/scan/landing) is honest — "LEARNING" below MIN_SAMPLE, never a fake
number. Settled HIT/MISS chips overlay the live slate.

Real-time layer (Phase 1): Slate silent 60s auto-refresh (no flash, no wipe on
transient blips) + "SIGNAL LIVE · UPDATED Xs ago" freshness strip; Ticker LIVE
badge that flashes on fresh events.

Landing (Phase 3): TopSignals shows tonight's real top-3 A-rated grades + live
accuracy — the product shown, not described.

Founder pricing: FOUNDER_CODE_EXPIRY default 2026-06-30 → 2026-12-31 (had
lapsed, disabling every founder code + the ClaimMeter pitch). That expiry — not
a tier change — was the real cause of the 4 stripe test failures.

Backend 2255 (4 failing) → 2274 (all green; +19 new, +4 fixed). Web build exit 0.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-10 15:39:13 -04:00
builtbykev cdedecf55b Session 52: Coming Soon teaser + infrastructure verification (2239 tests)
Phase 1 — Push-to-Book teaser (feature not live; teaser only):
- StatStrip: "BOOK IT ⟶" per graded prop (hover: "Push-to-Book coming soon").
- GradeResultCard: "PUSH-TO-BOOK · COMING SOON" footer.

Phase 2 — infrastructure verification:
- snapshotScheduler logs armed AND disarmed state (incl SNAPSHOT_CRON) so
  container logs disambiguate off-vs-crashed.
- NEW GET /api/internal/snapshot/status (internal-key gated): cron_armed,
  cron_hours_utc, last_snapshot per sport (gradeCount/deltaCount), redis_keys
  existence map, ticker_count. The post-deploy pipeline health probe.
- Finding: Redis AOF/RDB persistence is a server-side (Coolify) config the app
  can't set/verify — documented.

Phase 3 — delta pipeline (verified sound, no fix needed):
- runSnapshot already rotates :latest->:previous and diffs locked lines; added
  opt-in SNAPSHOT_DEBUG=1 [deltas] log + a trace test asserting :previous is
  preserved verbatim and the delta math is correct.

Backend 2234 -> 2239 tests (+5), 192 suites. Web build clean (exit 0).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-19 13:55:39 -04:00
builtbykev f8b120c0aa Session 45: Snapshot pipeline + GameCard swap + live ticker (2100 tests)
The on-demand "Read" grade model is RETIRED. A scheduled pipeline pre-grades the
slate, locks grades to the line, tracks movement; the dashboard shows them already
there. Orchestrates existing services — nothing rebuilt.

- snapshotService.runSnapshot(sport): getOdds → gradeAndCacheSlate → classify
  archetype per player → lock gradedAt → line deltas vs previous snapshot → write
  snapshot:{sport}:latest/previous + grades:{sport} → ticker events. Fully
  injectable, zero-network unit tests. runAllSnapshots = cron entrypoint.
- Internal trigger POST /api/internal/snapshot/:sport + /all (requireInternalAuth).
  In-process cron (SNAPSHOT_CRON=1, UTC 14,19,22,1,3) in server.js, no new dep.
- Public reads: GET /api/snapshot/:sport (cache-only) + GET /api/ticker (merges
  TICKER_MANUAL pins) + Next proxies.
- GameCard swap: live Slate renders vyndr/GameCard (legacy kept for types only),
  overlays locked grades onto game props → player name once + archetype badge +
  "Graded Xh ago at -115 · Current 2.5 · ▲ TOWARD +1.0". Ungraded → "Awaiting next
  scan", NO Read button. On-demand onGrade flow deleted.
- Ticker polls /api/ticker every 30s, graceful fallback to hardcoded items.
- NBA/WNBA: espnStatsAdapter free fallback (defensive parse → found:false on shape
  mismatch) wired into resolvePlayerStats after the offline Python service.

Env: PROPLINE_API_KEY_1/2/3, VYNDR_INTERNAL_KEY, SNAPSHOT_CRON=1, TICKER_MANUAL.
Backend 2061 -> 2100 tests (+39), 173 suites. Web build clean (exit 0).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-18 21:34:29 -04:00
builtbykev 9b10bb4138 Session 20: Provider intelligence — quota tracker, gateway with fallback cascade, admin quota dashboard (1476 tests) 2026-06-12 00:54:39 -04:00
builtbykev 0e3839a90a Session 18: Admin dashboard + Tank01 prefetch endpoint (1443 tests) 2026-06-11 22:29:38 -04:00