Records model_snapshots as LIVE and verified capturing (100 rows over 2
cycles: MLB 14 graded/36 refused, WNBA 50 graded; features, grade_11,
p_win, ev_pct on 100% of graded rows).
First-ever refusal visibility: juiced_no_edge 18, rare_event_over_below_
line 13, insufficient_data 5 — the MLB gate refused 36 of 50 sides (72%),
now measurable for the first time.
Flags EV as OVERCONFIDENT and not fit to surface: first captured values
include +62.1%/+61%/+56.9%, which real markets do not offer. Cause is the
estimator clamping p_win at PROB_CEIL 0.95 off ~10 games. Hero v2 already
ranks on ev_pct, so it will pick the MOST overconfident read — calibration
must gate this before EV drives anything user-facing.
Logs the two settlement-correctness findings Kev asked to track (zero
pushes across 470 settled rows; ~28 props/day never settling) and the
ledger model-version contamination, with the rule that any backtest off
existing history must treat the 2026-07-19 fix boundary as a hard cutoff.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01SmNjJAwEnqHPtXbvSZR8kA
POST /api/analyze/prop on prod returns p_win 0.523, ev_pct -10.4,
model_odds -109, confidence_basis grade_band, value false — every one of
which was absent on 100% of grades before this change. The value triplet
is whole (book -140 / fair -125 / model -109) and correctly refuses to
call a -140 price value when the model gives it 52.3%.
A-emission still pending the 01:00 UTC snapshot (opp_rank_stat populates
only when refreshTeamStats runs in a snapshot). MARKETING HOLD on A-RATED
copy stays until that passes. edge_pct scale remains broken (U-deg pt 2).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01SmNjJAwEnqHPtXbvSZR8kA
Arc 1 (7a925f4) shipped without a spec and without a STATE.md entry — the
plan lived only in a session context that was lost. Both written from the
code on disk, not from memory.
- STATE.md: header was stale at a8e383e; now 7a925f4 (pushed, NOT yet
deploy-fingerprinted). New top section records de-vig + EV + takeable/
value gates + hero v2 + the value triplet, the real config values, and
the 274/3289 -> 276/3306 test baseline.
- specs/model-train.md (NEW, per CLAUDE.md rule #1): every knob and its
ACTUAL default (TAKEABLE_ODDS_CEILING -160, TAKEABLE_ODDS_MAX +200,
VALUE_EV_THRESHOLD 2, JUICE_ODDS_FLOOR -400, RARE_EVENT_LINE_MAX 0.5);
the gate AS BUILT (flat price-only refusal at -400 pre-feature, NOT
edge-aware, no -250 wall; the -160..+200 band never refuses a grade and
is enforced on the hero alone); the triplet + hero v2; and a checklist
of what is NOT built.
Recorded honestly rather than assumed: EDGE_FLEX_WALL, HARD_JUICE_WALL,
LADDER_ODDS_MAX and MIN_RUNG_PROBABILITY do not exist in the codebase; no
frontend reads ev_pct/fair_odds/model_odds/book_odds/suppressed_reason yet;
the value fields are ungated to free tier; a second EV implementation
(processing/EVCalculator.js) still coexists with devig.evPct.
No engine code touched.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01SmNjJAwEnqHPtXbvSZR8kA
Betting-logic audit: the CONSENSUS-vs-MODEL board flooded with fake reads like
"DOUBLES u0.5 · MODEL 0.2 · +edge" — the juiced under side of rare counting-stat
markets (doubles/triples/HR/SB), which is never a takeable edge and violates the
no-unders-default doctrine.
Report finding (item 3/4): the doubles projection is REAL per-player, not a flat
fallback — 'doubles' maps to a real game-log field (MLB_LOG_FIELD doubles→
doubles) and the live values varied (0.03/0.16/0.2/0.22). So no projection-gate
refusal for fakeness; the problem is purely structural (a rare event's real
projection always sits below a 0.5 line, so the under always "wins").
Fix (config-driven — src/config/rareEventMarkets.js, tunable stat list + line
threshold):
- Grade layer (analyzeViaEngine1): a rare-event UNDER at ≤0.5 is always REFUSED
(grade null + suppressed flag/reason). A rare-event OVER at ≤0.5 is refused
UNLESS the model genuinely projects the event above the line — because a
0.2-over-0.5 carries the SAME |edge| as the suppressed under and would just
take its rank on the board. The over grades normally once projection > line.
- Board layer (marketBreadth.collectBreadth): drops null-model rows so a
suppressed/ungraded prop can't rank a "MODEL —" placeholder onto the board.
10 suppression tests + config locks; also fixed a settingsPage book assertion
left over from the ESPN→theScore swap. Suite 274/3289 green, web build exit 0.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
The session-opening doc: 3 trains shipped (2757 tests), live infra map,
pending Coolify env vars + entity placeholders, honest open items.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
builtbykev