# The accrual watch — the program is idle on modeling, and that is correct

## PHASE 0 — live-surface integrity

| check | result |
|---|---|
| Grade bands not derived from the retired champion | **PASS** — `gradeBands` is required by *no* serving code. Built across several orders, never wired. No stale band can reach a user because none reaches a user at all. |
| No withdrawn-map leak | **PASS** — `CALIBRATION_DEPLOYED` is `[]` and the calibrate loop iterates it, so `calibrate()` is never called. The only `p_win_calibrated` assignment sits inside that empty loop. Served `p_win` is repaired-champion raw. |
| Refusals on the repaired reference | **PASS** — `projectionFor` reads `l20_avg`, which `mlbGameLogFeatures` now builds from `fullLog`. |
| Factors still fire post-repair | **PASS** — the repair moved the base they adjust, so sign was re-verified across it: at base 0.35/0.50/0.65/0.80, defence lowers, pitcher-contact raises, platoon raises at every point. Firing check only; **not** a lift re-measurement. |

### One defect found, and it was mine

The grade card rendered **"Last 20 games average: X"** from `l20_avg` — a field
that, after the repair, holds a **full-season** average. The number moved and the
label did not, so the surface asserted a window that no longer existed. Fixed to
"Season average"; `trapDetection`'s L20 explanations likewise.

Same class as everything else tonight, one layer out: **a correct-looking string
describing data that moved underneath it.**

---

## PHASE 1 — the existence risk, resolved

Nineteen commits (`7b85934` → `2391574`) were local-only with no push
credentials. Three retrievable artifacts now exist:

| artifact | path | size |
|---|---|---|
| session bundle | `~/vyndr-session-2026-08-07.bundle` | 244K |
| **full-history bundle (self-contained)** | `~/vyndr-full-history-2026-08-07.bundle` | 6.8M |
| patch series (20 files) | `~/vyndr-session-patches/` | 1.5M |

**Use the full-history bundle** — the session bundle verifies as requiring ref
`6452926…`, so it only applies onto a repo that already has this history. The
full-history one clones standalone:

```
git clone ~/vyndr-full-history-2026-08-07.bundle vyndr-recovered
```

**This is the top non-accrual action item.** Copy one of these off the machine.

---

## PHASE 2 — the accrual watch

```
repaired champion marker: engine1@2026-08-07-fullwindow
eligible rows: 0 | eligible dates: 0
blocked: no settled rows yet carry the repaired champion marker
```

| item | need | have | status |
|---|---|---|---|
| calibration re-fit | 10 dates | 0 | WAITING |
| hits factor lift | 10 dates | 0 | WAITING |
| prior verdict re-audit | 14 dates | 0 | WAITING |
| rbi lineup-slot gate | 14 dates | 0 | WAITING |

Zero is the correct starting line: the repair ships in *this* session's commits,
so no settled row can carry the marker yet.

### These are ATTEMPT floors, not TRUST floors

**Reaching 10 dates means "the calibration re-fit can now be measured." It does
NOT mean the re-fit is trustworthy.** We lived this distinction the hard way
tonight: date-block CIs on 2–4 clusters, a LODO gate with 1.4–9.3% power, and a
≥40 date-cluster bar that was correct as a promotion bar and wrong as a deploy
bar. A 10-date map is thin. It deploys **PROVISIONAL with auto-demotion**, like
everything else, and its interval will still be wide.

**No future session may read "threshold met" as "answer certified."**

### Real-time estimates

Roughly one MLB slate per day, but per-stat settled volume differs — hits props
are far more numerous than rbi, and a "date" only counts once its props settle.

| item | dates | realistic wall-clock |
|---|---|---|
| calibration re-fit, hits lift | 10 | **~2 weeks** |
| verdict re-audit, rbi gate | 14 | **3+ weeks** (rbi accrues slowest) |

The wait is **designed, not a stall.** The alternative — measuring on
reconstructions of a retired forecast — is the trap this program has now refused
by name three times.

---

## PHASE 3 — the pre-registered resumption order

Triggered purely by eligible-date thresholds. No re-litigation, no re-deciding:

1. **@10 dates — calibration re-fit on the repaired champion.** Low-parameter,
   LODO where powered, PROVISIONAL, auto-demotion armed, shadow duel restarts on
   the repaired forecast. The favourite-longshot bias must be **re-measured**,
   not assumed to have survived the repair.
2. **@10 dates — hits factor composed-lift re-measure.** The 1.39% figure is
   **void** — measured on the broken baseline. Direction unknown.
3. **@14 dates — prior factor verdict re-audit.** Every null and every THEATER
   was scored against a champion worse than a frequency table. Not pre-priced;
   some may pass, some may still fail.
4. **@14 dates — rbi lineup-slot / RISP through the two-part gate.** World A
   ~90%, within-role residual 0.01908 real, `lineup_context` prod-verified (S89).

**FIRST TRIGGER:** when `reAuditEligibility.assess()` reports **10 eligible
calibration dates**, the next order is the calibration re-fit.

**Until then the program is honestly IDLE on modeling.** That is the correct
state, not a gap to fill.

---

## Invariants

No measurement on reconstructions — held. Phase 0 verified live integrity and
factor *firing*; it did not re-measure lift or re-fit calibration. Serving change
for the label fix, fingerprinted. `p_win` never mutated. No Bonferroni slot.