# THE BATTER CLUSTER — both-ways results, and what the bar actually is

**2026-08-03.** Challenger-only. Counter byte-identical. `skillProjection`
byte-identical (frozen) — verified by diff against the prior commit.

> **PREMISE CORRECTION, and it decides the whole order: total_bases has NOT
> passed BAR 1.** Yesterday's result was **delta +0.0071, CI95
> [−0.0648, +0.0789] — inconclusive, at parity, and contaminated**. No feature
> passed the gate. It was described as "the first challenger that did not LOSE",
> which is not the same as proven.
>
> This matters structurally: if total_bases is installed as "the frozen proven
> reference" and every other stat is held to "the identical bar total_bases
> cleared", **the bar becomes "be inconclusive at parity"** — a standard that
> proves nothing and would admit the entire cluster on a null result.
>
> **The proven set is EMPTY.** That is the honest Stage-B input.

---

## 0. Two orders running, one pattern

This is the second consecutive order whose premise promoted a null result to a
pass (the previous one had "barrel rate PASSED solo" when every TB feature was
refused on sample size). Flagging the pattern once, without labouring it: the
measurements are being read at their most favourable interpretation somewhere
between sessions. The numbers below are stated so that cannot happen again.

## 1. Validity: still contaminated today, but the clock has started

`statcast_history` was **empty** — the retention shipped *after* yesterday's
refresh had already run. Two things fixed this session:

1. The first prod run failed with `Could not find the 'swing_pct' column` — the
   hand-enumerated schema had drifted from the table it was copying. **The
   refresh still succeeded and wrote all 1,387 aggregate rows**, which verified
   the best-effort guard in production: a retention failure does not fail the
   refresh.
2. The table is now created `LIKE statcast_aggregates` and the writer passes the
   row through whole, so there is no drift surface left.

**Verified live: `history_retained: 1387, as_of 2026-08-03`.** The point-in-time
clock is running. It does not yet give a *window* — `as_of 2026-08-03` can only
score games from 2026-08-04 — so **everything below remains contaminated and
directional**, exactly as yesterday.

## 2. STEP 1 — both-ways results, per stat

Bonferroni across each stat's own sweep. The decider is correlation with the
counter's **residual** (`won − p_win`): only what the counter misses is new.

| stat | n | strongest solo (marginal r) | p | gate | best interaction (incremental) | head-to-head vs counter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| **hits** | **803** | exit_velo **−0.053** | 0.130 | **FAILS** (properly tested) | all ≈0, all **FAIL** | **LOSES** −0.0961, CI [−0.165, −0.029] |
| total_bases | 383 | hard_hit **+0.135** | 0.008 | insufficient n | barrel×archetype −0.101 | **INCONCLUSIVE** +0.0038, CI [−0.068, +0.075] |
| rbi | 391 | exit_velo −0.090 | 0.074 | insufficient n | barrel×archetype +0.073 | no projection built |
| home_runs | 228 | barrel **−0.135** | 0.041 | insufficient n | barrel×archetype −0.116 | no projection built |
| runs | 188 | launch −0.088 | 0.230 | insufficient n | **K×K +0.132** | no projection built |

### hits is now a FINAL answer, not a pending one

At **n=803** hits clears the gate's sample requirement, so its features were
**properly tested rather than refused**. Every one fails on effect size (max
|r| 0.053 against a 0.15 bar), every interaction's incremental collapses to
≈0, and the model loses head-to-head with a CI excluding zero. **This is a
well-powered negative and hits should be closed.**

### The rest are all n-blocked

TB 383, rbi 391, HR 228, runs 188 — none reaches 500. Their numbers are
directional only. Two are worth carrying:

- **home_runs · barrel_pct, marginal r = −0.135 (p=0.041).** Note the **sign**:
  higher barrel rate goes with the counter *over*-predicting. If that survives
  more data it is a real correction, not a new predictor.
- **runs · batter_K × pitcher_K, incremental +0.132** — the largest incremental
  anywhere in the cluster, with a clean mechanism (strikeouts destroy plate
  appearances, and a PA that never happens cannot score). At n=188 it is a lead.

### RBI has a missing half, stated rather than papered over

RBI is power × **opportunity** — the same swing drives in one run or three
depending on who is on base. **We do not ingest baserunner state at all**, so
half the mechanism is absent. A weak RBI result here is not evidence that skill
inputs fail for RBI; it is evidence we are modelling half the stat.

## 3. STEP 2 — total_bases held frozen

`git diff` on `src/services/model/skillProjection.js` against the prior commit
is **empty**. The projection is byte-identical; nothing was re-opened or re-fit.
It is frozen — but as §0 records, it is frozen as an **inconclusive** model, not
a proven reference.

## 4. STEP 3 — the proven set for Stage B

| stat | BAR 1 (proven) | BAR 2 (calibrated) |
|---|---|---|
| total_bases | **NO** — inconclusive at parity, contaminated | not attempted |
| hits | **NO** — loses, CI excludes zero, well-powered | n/a |
| home_runs | not testable (n=228) | n/a |
| rbi | not testable (n=391, half the mechanism missing) | n/a |
| runs | not testable (n=188) | n/a |

**Proven set: EMPTY. Stage B has nothing to calibrate.** Calibrating an
inconclusive model into grade bands would produce an "A" backed by a model not
shown to beat counting — which is exactly what BAR 2 exists to prevent.

## 5. What actually unblocks this

Everything now waits on the same two things, and both are **waiting problems,
not building problems**:

1. **A point-in-time window.** `statcast_history` starts accruing usable
   comparisons from 2026-08-04. A week gives a real one. Until then no skill
   result can be honest, whatever its n.
2. **Sample.** TB needs ~117 more settled rows, rbi ~109, HR ~272, runs ~312.
   At current volume TB and rbi arrive within days; HR and runs are weeks away.

Re-run `scripts/cluster-prove.js` (per stat via `CLUSTER_STAT=`) once both hold.

**Ranked, when the data arrives:** total_bases (closest to both bars) → rbi
(needs baserunner state to be a fair test) → home_runs → runs. **Close hits.**

**Not recommended:** treating parity as proven, calibrating anything yet,
lowering n≥500, or letting a stat inherit a pass from the shared conditioning
map. Reuse sped the search; it granted nothing, and nothing has been granted.