# RESOLUTION PIPELINE + CLV CAPTURE — INVESTIGATION (report; nothing built)
2026-07-31. No poller wired, no capture change, no env flipped.

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# PART 1 — 🔴 THE PREMISE IS FALSE. GRADES **DO** AUTO-SETTLE.

**"Grades never auto-settle" is not the case, and building an ESPN poller onto
`/api/grading/resolve` would create a SECOND settlement path racing a working
one — double-counting an append-only ledger.** That is why nothing was built.

**VERIFIED — settlement runs on every snapshot slot.** `src/snapshotScheduler.js`
resolves `settleAllOutcomes` (`:64`) and `settleAllLedgers` (`:67`) and, per its own
comment at `:393`, *"settlement is scheduled IN THIS tick (settleAllOutcomes +
settleAllLedgers run FIRST at every snapshot slot, before grading)"* (Session 61).

**VERIFIED — the record is already self-populating.** Public ledger: **937 settled**,
and it grows daily. Settled rows by game_date, measured this session:

| 07-24 | 07-25 | 07-26 | 07-27 | 07-28 | 07-29 | 07-30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 25 | 44 | 26 | 98 | 62 | 91 |

`/api/accuracy` reads it live: overall **937 @ 58%**, MLB 526 @ 62%, WNBA 411 @ 54%.

**So what IS `/api/grading/resolve`?** A separate, unreferenced legacy path (Wave 3
found zero callers). It is not the settlement path and never was. **Wiring a poller
to it would settle rows a second time**, and `ledger_entries` is append-only with an
`ignoreDuplicates` upsert — the failure would be silent and permanent.

### The DNP/VOID requirement — ALREADY SATISFIED, and load-bearing
The order is right that DNP-as-loss is a downward fabrication. It is already handled:
`outcome` values include **`void`** and **`unrecoverable`**, both terminal, and
`getModelAggregate` **excludes them from the record denominator**
(`.not('outcome','in','("void","unrecoverable")')`) — *"void (no bet existed:
DNP/postponed) and unrecoverable (truth not fetchable) are TERMINAL but are NOT
results. They must never enter a record denominator, exactly as pushes are."*
**105 void rows exist in the public ledger.** So DNPs are already excluded, not
counted as losses.

**Idempotency is already enforced too:** `settleLedger` guards with `.is('outcome',
null)` on the update, so a re-poll cannot re-settle. `outcomeService` dedupes on
`nameKey|stat|line|side|date`.

### What is ACTUALLY missing (the real gap, much smaller than the order assumes)
Settlement covers **MLB + WNBA only** (`outcomeService.SPORTS`). NBA and soccer grade
but never settle — no free settled-result feed is wired. **That** is the resolution
gap worth an order, and it is a per-sport feed problem, not a missing poller.

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# PART 2 — 🔴 `clvCaptureReliable()` IS AN ENV FLAG, NOT A DATA CHECK

    function clvCaptureReliable() { return process.env.CLV_CAPTURE_RELIABLE === '1'; }

That is the whole function (`ledgerService.js`). **It does not measure anything.**
It fails because the operator has not set `CLV_CAPTURE_RELIABLE=1` — not because the
capture is computing something unreliable.

**This reframes Part 2 entirely.** There is no capture code to "repair" so the guard
"legitimately passes": **flipping one env var publishes `beat_close_pct` immediately.**
Which makes this a judgement call, not an engineering task — and precisely the call
the honesty guard says must not be made to "make a number appear."

**What the guard gates (VERIFIED):** `beat_close_pct` and `clv_distribution` publish
only when `clvCaptureReliable() && settled >= 20 && clv_sample > 0`. With the flag
off they are null, `/record` renders **"NOT PUBLISHED YET"**, and the
computable-but-untrustworthy `clv_beat/clv_sample` (**34/937 = 3.6%**) is never the
publishing path — `clvPanel` returns `beatClosePct: null` and a test forbids the
fallback. **The honest guard is working exactly as designed.**

### The evidence that must decide the flag — and one measurement I could NOT run
Known from the 07-28 repair (verified earlier this session): `closing_prob` went
**59 → 406** (MLB 248, WNBA 158) against ~1,250 public rows, and the straight finding
was **MLB unders lag the close by −9.1 prob-pts (74% lose)** while **MLB overs are
+2.0 and WNBA is flat**.

**CANNOT DETERMINE (blocked, Supabase MCP upstream-auth outage):** the current
close-vs-locked distribution — specifically `count(closing_line = line)` vs
`count(closing_line <> line)`. That is the direct test for the old silent-overwrite
bug (92% close==locked). **Run exactly this before deciding the flag:**

    select count(*) filter (where outcome is not null) as settled,
           count(closing_prob) as with_close,
           count(*) filter (where closing_line::numeric =  line::numeric) as close_equals_locked,
           count(*) filter (where closing_line::numeric <> line::numeric) as close_moved,
           count(*) filter (where market_unavailable_reason is not null) as unavailable
    from ledger_entries where user_id is null;

**Recommended decision rule, stated before seeing the number so it cannot be fitted
to it:** set `CLV_CAPTURE_RELIABLE=1` **only if** (a) `close_moved` is a clear
majority of rows carrying a close — i.e. the capture is reading a genuine close, not
mirroring the locked line — **and** (b) coverage of settled rows is high enough that
the published percentage describes the record rather than the subset we happened to
capture. **If either fails, leave it off.** A CLV near zero *because close==locked* is
the fabrication to avoid, and it would look like success.

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# PART 3 — THE OUTSTANDING BOARD (authoritative, from the matrix + STATE)

**Shipped this session (closed):** Book Comparison wired · hero ranking fix ·
grade-board sort · `/api/props/top-graded` selector · takeable tagging (migration
034) · edge_pct display retirement · Wave 1 wiring (`/intelligence`, `/slip`,
`/parlay`, `/marketplace` honesty) · `/compare` real head-to-head · D1-A design
implementation · D1 row-anatomy modules · Build-1 settled/live gate · `/record`
proof surface · Build-2 founder mechanism Phase A + B.

**OPEN — model (highest leverage):**
1. **A-flood grade fix** — rebuild the grade on `p_win` vs `fair_prob`. The served
   letter correlates **r ≈ 0.005** with outcomes (B 52.4% vs C 56.9% — *inverted*),
   while the probability letter reaches **r = 0.236 on MLB**. This is the single
   biggest truth gap in the product.
2. **Re-adjudication list** — p_win→CLV 0.375, the skew audit, proj-v1.1's "NOT
   PROVEN", the C1 takeable floor, the calibration curves, and **ROI-by-grade
   (MLB-C +4.57% is likely an artifact of a meaningless letter)** — all measured on
   the collapsed output.
3. **Calibration curve + accuracy-over-time** — no honest source (no claimed-vs-actual
   endpoint; `window_days` fixed at 30, no series).
4. **Price-triplet MODEL leg** — waits on the EV layer producing `p_win`/`ev_pct`.

**OPEN — surfaces:** D1 reveal/rationale/chips **mount** (modules built, not mounted;
blocked on a ROW-GRAMMAR slot amendment + the board-reasoning gating decision) ·
share-card masters + M2 crops (**blocked: the resolve fanout has no generation step
and no trigger**) · `/notifications` (store exists, no trigger, no consent surface) ·
Offseason hub · `/system` · S3 article media · the 45 unwired glyphs + the 41-vs-74
archetype scope call (D1-B) · **`/record` has no nav link yet.**

**OPEN — infra/ops:** NBA + soccer never settle (Part 1's real gap) · **three
credentials still flagged for rotation** (Storage Box, `VYNDR_INTERNAL_KEY`, the
GitHub PAT in `origin`) · migration drift 023–029 untracked in the repo.

**NOT previously tracked, surfaced here:** the Stripe **live secret + webhook secret
were pasted into a chat transcript** this session. Stored correctly (`.env`, 0600,
gitignored, untracked; scan confirms no tracked file holds them) and Kev has declined
rotation — recorded so the decision is visible, not to relitigate it.

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## TAGS
VERIFIED: settlement runs every slot and the record self-populates (937 settled,
daily growth); void/unrecoverable already excluded from the denominator (105 void
rows); settlement idempotent; `clvCaptureReliable` is an env flag; the honest CLV
guard works and the 3.6% path is blocked by test.
**CANNOT DETERMINE: the close-vs-locked distribution (Supabase MCP outage) — the one
number that should decide the CLV flag.**
**BLOCKED: nothing was built — Part 1 because the premise is false and a second
settlement path would double-count; Part 2 because the "repair" is a one-flag
judgement call that needs the blocked measurement first.**