# The resolution ceiling — calibration is complete, and it was never the lever

## PHASE 0 — two honest truths, on record

### 1. The swap is a BET, not an OOS win

On identical held-out rows the **isotonic map scored BETTER**: hits +0.0028
(CI [0.0013, 0.0045]), rbi +0.0042 (CI [0.0003, 0.0092]), total_bases tied.

We serve the low-parameter map anyway, on the untestable prior that isotonic's
in-window edge is daily structure shared between the fit and evaluation windows
and will not transmit forward. At 19 dates **no instrument here can test that
prior** — LODO has 1.4–9.3% power against it.

**Named as a bet, logged, not evidence.** Phase 1 makes it falsifiable.

### 2. The MIN_SLOPE catch, as a standing guard rationale

`runs` fitted `a = −0.032`. A near-zero or negative slope collapses the curve
toward *base-rate-for-everything*, which **lowers Brier** — shrinking a
miscalibrated forecaster toward its base rate always does — while destroying all
resolution.

**A metric win that guts the product.** Any calibration layer must refuse a
non-positive slope on principle, not on inspection. That is now `MIN_SLOPE`.

---

## PHASE 1 — the duel, instrumented forward

Both corrections are computed on every hits/TB prop:
`p_win_lowparam` (served) and `p_win_isotonic_shadow` (logged, never read by
serving or by `chainAcross`). The shadow runs in its own try — it can never
break serving.

`calibrationDuel.adjudicate` encodes the rule **in code, before any forward date
exists**, so the bar cannot drift toward whichever answer arrives:

| condition | verdict | action |
|---|---|---|
| ≥10 forward dates AND isotonic wins, date-block CI excluding zero | **REFUTED** | revert hits/TB to isotonic, log the reversal |
| ≥10 forward dates, isotonic does not win | **UPHELD** | keep serving low-param |
| <10 forward dates | **PENDING** | keep serving, no verdict |

A date counts as forward **only if neither map was fitted on it** — scoring
inside a fit window would ask which map memorised better. Rows lacking that
provenance are dropped, never assumed forward. Tests lock all of it, including
that a decisive shadow win at 5 dates is still PENDING.

**Nothing swaps now.** The season decides.

---

## PHASE 2 — the resolution ceiling, quantified

Murphy decomposition: `Brier = reliability − resolution + uncertainty`.
Reliability is what calibration fixes. **Resolution is discrimination, and a
monotone map cannot create it** — it relabels bins without re-sorting the rows
inside them.

| stat | n | base | reliability | **resolution** | uncertainty | **share of variance explained** |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| hits | 1,140 | 0.5684 | 0.01353 | **0.00252** | 0.24532 | **1.03%** |
| total_bases | 1,050 | 0.5819 | 0.01419 | **0.00442** | 0.24329 | **1.82%** |
| rbi | 630 | 0.6571 | 0.00654 | **0.03268** | 0.22531 | **14.51%** |
| runs | 597 | 0.6348 | 0.00788 | **0.00130** | 0.23182 | **0.56%** |

### What calibration did, exactly as theory predicts

| stat | reliability | resolution |
|---|---|---|
| hits | 0.01353 → 0.00233 (**−0.0112**) | 0.00252 → 0.00231 (−0.0002) |
| total_bases | 0.01419 → 0.00527 (**−0.0089**) | 0.00442 → 0.00414 (−0.0003) |

**Calibration removed 83% of hits' reliability error and moved resolution by
essentially nothing.** It did the whole of its job, and its job was never the
one the grade product needs.

**Unexpected:** `rbi` has **13× the resolution of hits** and is the one stat we
do *not* serve corrected — it needs calibration least (reliability 0.0065) and
discriminates most. Worth carrying into the factor arc.

---

## PHASE 2 — the HITS factor-transmission diagnosis

**Verdict: NOT-TRANSMITTED. Not weak — absent.** This is a plumbing defect, and
it is the highest-value finding in the order.

Evidence, traced in code rather than recalled:

1. **`sprayDefense.js` and `platoonSeverity.js` are required by NOTHING in
   `src/`.** Only by analysis scripts and their own tests. The two
   causally-correct atoms that passed the two-part gate have never been on the
   serving path.

2. **The served `p_win` reads exactly four inputs**
   (`intelligence/probabilityEstimator.js:54`): game-log frequency over the line,
   `opp_rank_stat` (±0.03), `home_away` (±0.015), and a cv consistency pull.
   Zero occurrences of spray, platoon, hard-hit or contact-profile.

3. **Ordering makes it structural.** `snapshotService` grades at line 454
   (`gradeAndCacheSlate`) and only computes challenger/context at line 640+.
   Everything proven is computed **downstream of the grade it would inform**.

So the three proven hits factors — `defense_by_direction`,
`pitcher_contact_profile`, `platoon_severity` — were measured on ledger rows by
analysis scripts and **have never once moved a served number.**

That reframes every null in this programme's recent history. "Calibrated p_win
does not separate within archetype" was never a statement about factors. The
factors were not in the forecast.

---

## PHASE 3 — bands on served values

| stat | basis | eval rows | slots | slots with lift |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| hits | `p_win_lowparam` (served) | 765 | 7 | **0** |
| total_bases | `p_win_lowparam` (served) | 625 | 7 | **0** |
| rbi | raw `p_win` | 425 | 7 | **0** |
| runs | raw `p_win` | 424 | 7 | **0** |

**28 archetype slots across four stats. Zero show lift.** Every slot is one band
indistinguishable from its own base rate.

This is no longer an open shrug. It is the arithmetic consequence of resolution
of 0.0013–0.0327 against uncertainty of ~0.23: **a forecast explaining 1% of the
outcome's variance cannot produce bands that separate**, and no correction to its
numbers will change that.

---

## THE HEADLINE

**Calibration is complete. It delivered honest numbers on two stats and ZERO
grade separation, because the counter has no resolution — 1.03% of variance on
hits, 0.56% on runs.**

**And the three proven hits factors are NOT WIRED INTO THE FORECAST AT ALL.**

Those two facts together are the programme's position. The second is the reason
for the first, and it is a plumbing defect rather than a modelling wall — which
makes it the cheapest high-value fix available.

**Per-archetype grades require proven factors that actually reach `p_win`. That
is the next and central arc.** This is the last calibration order.

---

## Invariants

Serving unchanged from `74cf1ce` — this order logs and diagnoses. `p_win` never
mutated; `p_win_lowparam` served, `p_win_isotonic_shadow` logged. No Bonferroni
slot. Counter and frozen clusters verified file-by-file.