# TAKEABLE ENFORCEMENT — FIXED, TAGGED, AND THE RE-STAMP CALL

**Date:** 2026-08-02 · shipped before tonight's settle · served path, champion,
ranking and the reference ruler **untouched**.

**Gates:** 4,111 tests / 330 suites green · `next build` exit 0 · write path
verified on real prod rows · 1,006 rows tagged and excluded.

---

## PART 1 — THE WRITE PATH: TWO LEAKS, NOT ONE

The audit found `ledgerService.indexProps`. Tracing the lock price found
**`snapshotService.indexOdds` has the same defect** — it also indexed the full
props list, so `gradedAt.odds`, the price a grade is *locked* at, could itself be
a DFS or exchange price. **Fixing only the ledger would have left contamination
flowing in through the lock.**

Both now gate on **`TAKEABLE_BOOKS`** — deliberately **not** `MODEL_BOOKS`.
`pinnacle` is model-eligible and correctly not takeable; a MODEL gate would
re-break this the moment pinnacle's feed recovers.

**Two indexes, two roles**, because the row needs different things with different
correctness rules:

- **PRICE / BOOK / TAKEABLE** → takeable books only.
- **GAME FACTS** (`game_time`, `game_date`, team/opponent) → **book-independent**.
  First pitch is first pitch whichever book listed it; gating these too would drop
  valid rows for no gain.

**Collapsing those roles into one index was the bug.**

### Verified on REAL prod feed rows

Real `lock_lines` rows, run through the real `rowsFromSnapshot`:

| player | books available (in feed order) | result |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Narváez | dabble, kalshi, prizepicks, smarkets — **no takeable book** | **`book=null, price=null, takeable=null`** — honest absent |
| Kyle Schwarber (TB) | bovada, dabble, novig, **pinnacle**, draftkings | **draftkings +102**, `takeable=true` |
| Shohei Ohtani | dabble, onexbet, draftkings | **draftkings −266**, `takeable=false` |

**0 non-takeable anchored rows.** Narváez is the case that matters most: before the
fix he would have been stamped `dabble +104, takeable=true`. He is now **honestly
absent** — no price beats a price you cannot bet. And **pinnacle was skipped**,
which proves the gate is TAKEABLE and not MODEL.

**A harness bug worth recording:** my first verification pulled live `/api/odds/mlb`,
which returned `{"error": "Odds data temporarily unavailable"}`. My script read
that as *0 props* and printed **"all from takeable books? true"** — a **vacuously
true pass**. I caught it only because I also printed the book list and it was
empty. Sixth-ish instance of this family: *a probe that finds nothing looks
identical to a probe that finds nothing wrong.*

---

## PART 2 — TAGGED AND EXCLUDED (never pooled)

**1,006 rows tagged** via the purpose-built `quarantine_reason`, at row level with
three distinct sub-cases so the re-stamp decision can be made per row:

| tag | rows | settled | pending |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| `nontakeable_book:recoverable_same_line` | **936** | 47 | 886 |
| `nontakeable_book:no_takeable_quote` | 49 | 0 | 48 |
| `nontakeable_book:takeable_line_differs` | 21 | 0 | 21 |

**`getModelAggregate` already excludes quarantined rows** (`.is('quarantine_reason',
null)`) — a pre-existing guard doing exactly the right thing, so the public model
record and the n≥20 gate are clean automatically. **All five committed holdout
scripts** now carry the same exclusion explicitly.

---

## PART 3 — THE RE-STAMP CALL, ON FACT

**The takeable book's LOCK-TIME price is recoverable for 936 of 1,006 (93.0%)**
from `lock_lines` — the correct instrument (lock time, not close time). For
reference, only 431 appear in `closing_captures`, which is the wrong timing for a
lock price anyway.

**So re-stamping is a legitimate JOIN for 93%, not a fabrication.** It would pull
the captured takeable price onto the row — a value we really recorded, at the
right moment.

### And the line question — answered

| | rows | verdict |
|---|---:|---|
| stored line **matches** a takeable book's line | **936 (93.0%)** | line is **CLEAN** |
| a takeable book existed but posted a **different** line | **21 (2.1%)** | line **IS** contaminated |
| **no takeable book quoted the prop at all** | **49 (4.9%)** | unverifiable — and arguably should never have been graded |

**This makes the decision cleanly row-level:**

> **OPTION A — re-stamp the 936.** The takeable lock price and the same line both
> exist in the archive. Honest join, sample preserved, 886 pending rows recovered
> for the holdouts.
>
> **OPTION B — leave all 1,006 tagged and excluded.** Simplest, loses 886 pending
> rows from the accruing verdicts, costs nothing in correctness.
>
> **Either way, the 21 + 49 stay excluded.** Re-stamping those would invent a lock
> price, or a line, we never captured.

**I have not re-stamped anything. This is your call, and it is now a fact-based
one.**

---

## STACK BEHIND A CLEAN LEDGER

**(b) Structural `Number(null) === 0` guard** — a shared unknown-vs-zero helper.
**`hits` will re-trigger it**: its 0.5 lines make P(0) the whole game, exactly
where a null read as zero is maximally wrong.

**(c) `hits` fix** — on both invariants, not before them.

**Carry-forward:** tb-v1 verdict (accruing) · the third pre-registered branch
(improves-ranking-but-low → promote **and** recalibrate) · **the 100s Cloudflare
origin timeout vs a ~115s snapshot** — the work completes server-side, so a **524
is not a failure**; worth a flag before someone reads it as one.

## TAGS

**VERIFIED:** both leaks fixed and gated on TAKEABLE (pinnacle skipped, proving
it) · 0 non-takeable anchors on real prod rows · no-takeable-book → honest absent ·
1,006 rows tagged with three sub-cases · `getModelAggregate` already excluded
them · 93.0% recoverable from `lock_lines` · line clean 93.0% / contaminated 2.1% /
unverifiable 4.9%.

**AWAITING KEV:** re-stamp the 936, or leave all 1,006 excluded.