/** * Session 63 — grade-range restoration. * * Locks the three structural facts the S63 audit found and fixed: * 1. L20 has a NEGATIVE branch (there was no downside path at all). * 2. With the previously-starving factors alive, A and D are REACHABLE. * 3. `confidence` is explicitly labelled as grade-derived, not a probability. * * These are arithmetic/structural assertions on the engine, NOT a claim about * how often A should occur in the wild — that is the live distribution report. */ const engine1 = require('../../src/services/intelligence/engine1'); const { toLegacyShape } = require('../../src/utils/gradeAdapter'); const featureCache = require('../../src/services/intelligence/featureCache'); const prop = (direction = 'over', line = 10) => ({ line, direction }); describe('L20 symmetry (the missing downside path)', () => { test('L20 BELOW the line now subtracts on an OVER', () => { const factors = engine1.__internals ? engine1.__internals.computeFactors({ features: { l20_avg: 5 }, prop: prop('over', 10) }) : null; const res = engine1.gradeProp({ features: { l20_avg: 5 }, prop: prop('over', 10) }); // Whether or not internals are exported, the graded result must be BELOW // the neutral 'C' — previously l20 could only ever add. expect(['F', 'D', 'C-']).toContain(res.grade); if (factors) { expect(factors.find((f) => f.label === 'l20_contradicts_over').delta).toBe(-1.0); } }); test('L20 ABOVE the line still adds on an OVER (unchanged)', () => { const res = engine1.gradeProp({ features: { l20_avg: 15 }, prop: prop('over', 10) }); expect(['C+', 'B-', 'B']).toContain(res.grade); }); test('L20 ABOVE the line subtracts on an UNDER (mirrored)', () => { const res = engine1.gradeProp({ features: { l20_avg: 15 }, prop: prop('under', 10) }); expect(['F', 'D', 'C-']).toContain(res.grade); }); }); describe('A and D are reachable once the starving factors are alive', () => { test('A emits when the real signals stack (the merit path)', () => { const res = engine1.gradeProp({ features: { l5_avg: 14, // +1.0 hot vs line l20_avg: 13, // +1.0 season confirms opp_rank_stat: 0.85, // +1.0 weak defense (was permanently null) home_away: 1.0, // +0.5 rest_days: 3, // +0.5 }, consistency: { consistency: 'elite', score: 0.9 }, // +1.0 (was 'unknown') prop: prop('over', 10), }); expect(['A-', 'A', 'A+']).toContain(res.grade); }); test('D/F emits when the real signals stack against (the merit path)', () => { const res = engine1.gradeProp({ features: { l5_avg: 6, // -1.0 cold vs line l20_avg: 7, // -1.0 season contradicts (NEW branch) opp_rank_stat: 0.1, // -1.0 top defense home_away: 0.0, rest_days: 0, // -0.5 back-to-back game_count_in_7d: 5, // -0.5 heavy workload (was never populated) }, consistency: { consistency: 'boom_bust' }, // -1.0 trap: { composite: 0.8 }, // -1.0 prop: prop('over', 10), }); expect(['F', 'D']).toContain(res.grade); }); test('a neutral feature set still lands at C — no inflation', () => { const res = engine1.gradeProp({ features: {}, prop: prop('over', 10) }); expect(res.grade).toBe('C'); }); }); describe('confidence is labelled as derived, not a probability', () => { test('toLegacyShape marks confidence_basis', () => { const out = toLegacyShape( { grade: 'B', confidence: 0.63, all_factors: [] }, { player: 'X', stat_type: 'hits', line: 1.5, direction: 'over' }, ); expect(out.confidence_basis).toBe('grade_band'); }); }); describe('gameCountInWindow (powers heavy_workload_7d)', () => { const now = Date.UTC(2026, 6, 19); const day = 86_400_000; test('counts only games inside the window', () => { const rows = [ { date: new Date(now - 1 * day).toISOString(), hits: 1 }, { date: new Date(now - 3 * day).toISOString(), hits: 2 }, { date: new Date(now - 20 * day).toISOString(), hits: 0 }, ]; expect(featureCache.gameCountInWindow(rows, 7, now)).toBe(2); }); test('returns null (absent, not 0) when there are no dated rows', () => { expect(featureCache.gameCountInWindow([], 7, now)).toBeNull(); expect(featureCache.gameCountInWindow([{ hits: 1 }], 7, now)).toBeNull(); expect(featureCache.gameCountInWindow(null, 7, now)).toBeNull(); }); }); describe('consistency low-mean classifier (CV → index of dispersion)', () => { const cs = require('../../src/services/intelligence/consistencyScore'); test('low-mean MLB stat classifies on IoD, not blanket CV boom_bust', async () => { // Real Pete Alonso hits log: mean 0.60. Under the raw CV (1.17) this was // boom_bust; the S63 stopgap made it 'unknown'; the IoD fix recovers it — // IoD = variance/mean = 0.82 → steadier than random → 'reliable' (+1.0). // The original point still holds: it is NOT wrongly stamped boom_bust. const logs = [0, 0, 0, 1, 2, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0].map((hits) => ({ hits })); const res = await cs.getConsistency({ statType: 'hits', gameLogs: logs }); expect(res.method).toBe('iod'); expect(['elite', 'reliable']).toContain(res.consistency); expect(res.consistency).not.toBe('boom_bust'); }); test('CV still classifies normally above the floor (NBA-scale stat)', async () => { const logs = [20, 22, 19, 21, 20, 23, 18, 21, 20, 22].map((points) => ({ points })); const res = await cs.getConsistency({ statType: 'points', gameLogs: logs }); expect(res.method).toBe('cv'); expect(['elite', 'reliable']).toContain(res.consistency); }); test('cvIsMeaningful is the CV/IoD split point (not a blanket refusal)', () => { expect(cs.cvIsMeaningful(0.6)).toBe(false); // < 4 → IoD branch expect(cs.cvIsMeaningful(12)).toBe(true); // ≥ 4 → CV branch }); });