# arch-v1 AXIS AUDIT — env/matchup WERE DEAD; ENVIRONMENT FIXED

**Date:** 2026-08-01 · champion `p_win`, ranking, calibration and
`opportunity_drift`'s accruing verdict all **untouched**.

**Gates:** 4,077 tests / 326 suites green · `next build` exit 0 · audit run on
prod · resolver verified live.

---

## STEP 0 — THE AUDIT: "already partly live" was half true

**The code is wired. The axes were not firing.**

Across **634 graded prod rows**, `challenger_adjustments` axis distribution:

| axis | rows | % of slate |
|---|---:|---:|
| *(no axis fired)* | 296 | 46.7% |
| **opportunity** *(new, ours)* | 142 | 22.4% |
| power | 80 | 12.6% |
| swing_miss | 69 | 10.9% |
| contact | 56 | 8.8% |
| launch · line_drive · patience · strikeout · contact_allowed · aggression · chase · velocity · ground_ball · wild | 51→1 | — |
| **environment (park/weather)** | **0** | **0%** |
| **matchup (platoon)** | **0** | **0%** |

Every axis that fired is an **archetype trait**. The two condition axes this
order is about fired on **nothing**.

The ledger confirms it from the other side: `env_multiplier`, `env_park_base`,
`env_weather_mod`, `wx_forecast`, `env_weather_state` — **all null on 634/634**.

### Root cause, located rather than inferred

`buildContext` works fine — **15 games, 14 with weather, Coors Field composing to
1.241**. The failure is downstream. A drop-off audit against the live snapshot:

| hop | count |
|---|---:|
| grades examined | 120 |
| **with a `team` field** | **0** |
| team resolves to an abbr | 0 |
| abbr matches a game | 0 |
| **environment produced** | **0** |
| with `playerId` | 120 |
| with `bats` | **0** |
| opposing pitcher known | **0** |

**`team` is a key on every stored grade and NULL on 416/416.** The resolver keyed
off the player's roster team, so it could never find a venue — while
`buildContext` sat there with all 30 teams mapped and 14 weather forecasts
resolved and unused. **Nothing was broken in the park or weather code. The join
key was absent.**

*(Side consequence worth noting: the S59 slate JOIN INVARIANT also keys off this
same `team` field, so it is currently inert too.)*

---

## STEP 1 — THE ENVIRONMENT FIX (and it is the more correct join)

**The park and the weather belong to the GAME, not to the player's roster team** —
and the game rides on the prop from the odds feed, where a stats-resolve can
legitimately fail.

1. **`gradeSlateService.gradeBestSide`** now carries `home_team`/`away_team` onto
   the graded row. The legacy grade shape dropped them.
2. **`environmentContext.contextFor`** joins on the game first
   (`team → home_team → away_team`), keeping the roster team as a fallback.

### Verified live

| | before | after |
|---|---:|---:|
| grades carrying `home_team` | 0 / 416 | **416 / 416** |
| **environment resolves** | **0 / 120** | **105 / 120 (87.5%)** |

Coors Field composes to **1.241** (park 1.20 × weather 1.034) the moment it gets
a key.

### One honest limit on what is confirmed

**The axis has not yet been observed writing to the ledger, and I am not claiming
it has.** `recordPipelineGrades` upserts with `ignoreDuplicates: true` and dedupes
on `(user_id, player_key, stat, line, side, game_id)` — correctly, so a re-run
never overwrites the original lock. Today's 429 rows were written **before** the
fix, so the environment axis **cannot** backfill onto them.

```
game_date 2026-08-01 — 429 rows: opportunity axis 142, environment axis 0
```

**First ledger observation: tomorrow's slate.** What *is* directly verified is the
resolver (105/120) and the join key (416/416), which are the two things that were
broken.

---

## MATCHUP / PLATOON — NOT FIXED, AND NOT CLAIMED AS FIXED

It needs the opposing starter and **both** hands. The audit shows **three separate
absences**:

```
oppPitcherByTeam  0      (the probable-pitcher fetch returns nothing)
handById          0      (so no pitcher handedness)
with_bats         0/120  (no hitter handedness on the slate)
```

Per the order's own guard — *one axis at a time* — that is its **own order with
its own diagnosis**, not a second fix smuggled into this one. Fixing the pitcher
feed without the hands, or the hands without the feed, would still produce an
axis that fires on zero rows.

---

## STEP 2 — HOLDOUTS: BOTH AXES ARE n-BLOCKED

| axis | settled rows carrying it | earliest proof |
|---|---:|---|
| `opportunity` | **0** | first settle pass on 2026-08-01 games |
| `environment` | **0** | first ledger write on tomorrow's slate |

Neither can be proven today, and **a holdout filtered to axis-carrying rows cannot
be run when that set is empty**. The committed query
(`scripts/opportunity-axis-holdout.sql`) already filters that way, for the reason
drift established: including untouched rows dilutes the comparison with rows where
challenger ≡ champion **by construction, biasing toward a false positive.**

**Both accrue in parallel on the same harness. Neither promotes until its own
holdout says so.**

---

## WHAT IS UNTOUCHED

Champion `p_win`, the live grade path, ranking, calibration, and
`opportunity_drift`'s accruing verdict. The environment axis writes only to
`p_win_challenger` / `challenger_adjustments`.

## TAGS

**VERIFIED:** env + matchup axes fired on 0/634 prod rows · 13 archetype axes fire
normally · `team` null on 416/416 · `buildContext` healthy (15 games, 14 weather) ·
post-fix environment resolves 105/120 and `home_team` present 416/416 · matchup
blocked by three separate absences.

**NOT YET OBSERVED:** the environment axis writing to the ledger — blocked by
same-day dedupe, first visible on tomorrow's slate.