'use strict'; // Betting-logic audit (2026-07-19) — rare-event 0.5 markets. The UNDER is // always suppressed (juiced); the OVER grades only when the model genuinely // projects the event above the line; and the CONSENSUS-vs-MODEL board drops // no-model rows so a suppressed market can't take the under's rank. // ── config helpers (pure) ─────────────────────────────────────────────────── const cfg = require('../../src/config/rareEventMarkets'); describe('rareEventMarkets config', () => { test('the rare stats + threshold are config-driven (tunable, cross-sport)', () => { expect(cfg.RARE_EVENT_STATS).toEqual( expect.arrayContaining(['doubles', 'triples', 'home_runs', 'stolen_bases', 'steals', 'blocks']), ); expect(cfg.RARE_EVENT_LINE_MAX).toBe(0.5); expect(cfg.JUICE_ODDS_FLOOR).toBe(-400); // the general guard's default }); test('UNDER on a rare 0.5 market is suppressed', () => { for (const s of cfg.RARE_EVENT_STATS) { expect(cfg.isSuppressedRareUnder(s, 0.5, 'under')).toBe(true); } expect(cfg.isSuppressedRareUnder('doubles', 0.5, 'over')).toBe(false); // over handled separately expect(cfg.isSuppressedRareUnder('hits', 0.5, 'under')).toBe(false); // hits is NOT rare expect(cfg.isSuppressedRareUnder('doubles', 1.5, 'under')).toBe(false); // 1.5 line is a diff market }); test('OVER on a rare 0.5 market is suppressed UNLESS projection > line', () => { expect(cfg.isSuppressedRareOver('doubles', 0.5, 'over', 0.2)).toBe(true); // 0.2 <= 0.5 → junk expect(cfg.isSuppressedRareOver('doubles', 0.5, 'over', 0.5)).toBe(true); // == line → not genuine expect(cfg.isSuppressedRareOver('doubles', 0.5, 'over', 0.7)).toBe(false); // 0.7 > 0.5 → genuine read expect(cfg.isSuppressedRareOver('doubles', 0.5, 'under', 0.2)).toBe(false); // under path, not this fn expect(cfg.isSuppressedRareOver('hits', 0.5, 'over', 0.2)).toBe(false); // not rare }); }); describe('juice floor — the GENERAL, stat-agnostic guard', () => { test('graded-side odds are read from the graded direction', () => { expect(cfg.gradedSideOdds({ direction: 'under', under_odds: -800, over_odds: 120 })).toBe(-800); expect(cfg.gradedSideOdds({ direction: 'over', under_odds: -800, over_odds: 120 })).toBe(120); expect(cfg.parseAmerican('+600')).toBe(600); expect(cfg.parseAmerican(null)).toBeNull(); }); test('a side priced past the floor is too juiced (any stat)', () => { expect(cfg.isTooJuiced({ direction: 'under', under_odds: -800 })).toBe(true); // the doubles case expect(cfg.isTooJuiced({ direction: 'under', under_odds: -1100 })).toBe(true); expect(cfg.isTooJuiced({ direction: 'under', under_odds: -400 })).toBe(true); // == floor }); test('normal + longshot prices are NOT juiced (legit markets preserved)', () => { expect(cfg.isTooJuiced({ direction: 'under', under_odds: -110 })).toBe(false); expect(cfg.isTooJuiced({ direction: 'under', under_odds: -250 })).toBe(false); expect(cfg.isTooJuiced({ direction: 'over', over_odds: 600 })).toBe(false); // a real longshot over }); test('no odds → cannot judge from price (falls back to the structural rule)', () => { expect(cfg.isTooJuiced({ direction: 'under' })).toBe(false); expect(cfg.isTooJuiced({ direction: 'under', under_odds: null })).toBe(false); }); }); // ── analyzeViaEngine1 integration ─────────────────────────────────────────── const mockComputeReturn = { current: null }; jest.mock('../../src/services/intelligence/computeFeatures', () => ({ computeFeaturesForProp: async () => mockComputeReturn.current, })); const mockEngine1Return = { current: null }; jest.mock('../../src/services/intelligence/engine1', () => ({ gradeProp: () => mockEngine1Return.current, })); const { analyzeViaEngine1 } = require('../../src/services/intelligence/analyzeViaEngine1'); const feat = (l5, line, dir) => ({ features: { l5_avg: l5, l20_avg: l5 }, trap: {}, consistency: { consistency: 'reliable', score: 0.7 }, prop: { line, direction: dir }, meta: { sport: 'mlb', errors: [] }, }); beforeEach(() => { mockComputeReturn.current = null; mockEngine1Return.current = { grade: 'B', confidence: 0.55, top_factors: [], all_factors: [] }; }); describe('analyzeViaEngine1 — rare-event suppression', () => { test('doubles UNDER 0.5 is REFUSED (grade null, suppressed) — no compute', async () => { const out = await analyzeViaEngine1({ player: 'X', stat_type: 'doubles', line: 0.5, direction: 'under' }); expect(out.grade).toBeNull(); expect(out.suppressed).toBe(true); expect(out.suppressed_reason).toBe('rare_event_under'); expect(out.insufficient_data).toBe(true); // filtered by gradeBestSide }); test('doubles OVER 0.5 with projection 0.2 (<= line) is REFUSED', async () => { mockComputeReturn.current = feat(0.2, 0.5, 'over'); const out = await analyzeViaEngine1({ player: 'X', stat_type: 'doubles', line: 0.5, direction: 'over' }); expect(out.grade).toBeNull(); expect(out.suppressed_reason).toBe('rare_event_over_below_line'); }); test('doubles OVER 0.5 with projection 0.7 (> line) GRADES — genuine event read', async () => { mockComputeReturn.current = feat(0.7, 0.5, 'over'); const out = await analyzeViaEngine1({ player: 'X', stat_type: 'doubles', line: 0.5, direction: 'over' }); expect(out.grade).toBe('B'); // real grade, not suppressed expect(out.suppressed).toBeUndefined(); }); test('home_runs / stolen_bases / triples UNDER 0.5 all suppressed', async () => { for (const s of ['home_runs', 'stolen_bases', 'triples']) { const out = await analyzeViaEngine1({ player: 'X', stat_type: s, line: 0.5, direction: 'under' }); expect(out.grade).toBeNull(); expect(out.suppressed).toBe(true); } }); test('a NON-rare under (hits) is unaffected — still grades', async () => { mockComputeReturn.current = feat(1.2, 0.5, 'under'); const out = await analyzeViaEngine1({ player: 'X', stat_type: 'hits', line: 0.5, direction: 'under' }); expect(out.grade).toBe('B'); expect(out.suppressed).toBeUndefined(); }); test('a rare stat at a 1.5 line (not 0.5) is unaffected', async () => { mockComputeReturn.current = feat(1.2, 1.5, 'under'); const out = await analyzeViaEngine1({ player: 'X', stat_type: 'home_runs', line: 1.5, direction: 'under' }); expect(out.grade).toBe('B'); }); test('JUICE GUARD — a heavily-juiced side is refused for ANY stat, via price', async () => { // hits is NOT a rare-event stat, but the book pricing it -800 means no edge. const out = await analyzeViaEngine1({ player: 'X', stat_type: 'hits', line: 1.5, direction: 'under', under_odds: -800 }); expect(out.grade).toBeNull(); expect(out.suppressed_reason).toBe('juiced_no_edge'); }); test('JUICE GUARD — a normally-priced play still grades', async () => { mockComputeReturn.current = feat(1.4, 0.5, 'over'); const out = await analyzeViaEngine1({ player: 'X', stat_type: 'hits', line: 0.5, direction: 'over', over_odds: -130 }); expect(out.grade).toBe('B'); // -130 is fine → real read }); }); // ── board layer: collectBreadth drops no-model rows ───────────────────────── const { collectBreadth } = require('../../web/src/lib/marketBreadth'); describe('collectBreadth drops null-model rows (suppressed markets off the board)', () => { const books = [{ book: 'dk', line: 0.5 }, { book: 'fd', line: 0.5 }]; test('a prop with no model (refused/ungraded) is not ranked onto the board', () => { const rows = collectBreadth([ { player: 'Real', stat: 'hits', side: 'over', line: 1.5, books: [{ book: 'dk', line: 1.5 }, { book: 'fd', line: 1.5 }], modelValue: 2.1 }, { player: 'Suppressed', stat: 'doubles', side: 'over', line: 0.5, books, modelValue: null }, ], 6); expect(rows.map((r) => r.player)).toEqual(['Real']); // the null-model doubles is gone }); });