// Wave 1 (truth-everywhere-train) — NBA/WNBA settlement. // Locks that once a basketball grade exists, it settles against the FREE ESPN // per-game log (espnStatsAdapter.getPlayerGameLog), records populate, the run // is idempotent, and an unplayed/in-progress game NEVER settles. Zero network. const svc = require('../../src/services/outcomeService'); const ledger = require('../../src/services/ledgerService'); const { statValue, nbaStatValue, logRowOnDate } = svc.__internals; // ---- in-memory Redis (same helper shape as outcomeService.test.js) -------- function memCache(seed = {}) { const store = { ...seed }; return { store, cacheGet: async (k) => (k in store ? store[k] : null), cacheSet: async (k, v) => { store[k] = v; return true; }, }; } // ESPN gamelog rows carry a FULL ISO timestamp (a late tip is 00:xxZ the next // UTC day) — the exact shape Wave 0's getPlayerGameLog returns. const NOW = '2026-07-13T15:00:00.000Z'; // 11am ET Jul 13 = "today" const GRADED_TS = '2026-07-12T23:30:00.000Z'; // 7:30pm ET Jul 12 (locked pre-game) const GAME_ISO = '2026-07-13T01:00:00.000+00:00'; // 9pm ET Jul 12 → ET date Jul 12 function snapshot(sport, grades) { return { sport, updated_at: GRADED_TS, grades }; } function grade(over = {}) { return { player: over.player || "A'ja Wilson", stat_type: over.stat || 'points', line: over.line != null ? over.line : 19.5, direction: over.side || 'over', grade: over.grade || 'A', gradedAt: { line: over.line != null ? over.line : 19.5, odds: -115, timestamp: GRADED_TS }, }; } // espnStatsAdapter.getPlayerGameLog fixture: { found, id, last10:[{date, stat}] } function espnLog(statObj, dateIso = GAME_ISO) { return { found: true, id: '3149391', last10: [{ date: dateIso, opponent: 'IND', isHome: true, stat: statObj }] }; } describe('statValue — sport-aware (NBA/WNBA box keys, S11 three-map-split kept)', () => { test('MLB path unchanged when sport unspecified/mlb', () => { expect(statValue({ homeRuns: 1 }, 'home_runs')).toBe(1); expect(statValue({ homeRuns: 1 }, 'home_runs', 'mlb')).toBe(1); }); test('NBA/WNBA simple stats read the ESPN box object', () => { const box = { points: 24, rebounds: 12, assists: 3, threes: 2, steals: 1, blocks: 1, turnovers: 4 }; expect(statValue(box, 'points', 'wnba')).toBe(24); expect(statValue(box, 'rebounds', 'nba')).toBe(12); expect(statValue(box, 'threes', 'wnba')).toBe(2); expect(statValue(box, 'turnovers', 'nba')).toBe(4); }); test('combo stat_types sum their components (pts_reb_ast, reb_ast, stl_blk)', () => { const box = { points: 20, rebounds: 12, assists: 2, steals: 1, blocks: 3 }; expect(nbaStatValue(box, 'pts_reb_ast')).toBe(34); expect(nbaStatValue(box, 'pts_reb')).toBe(32); expect(nbaStatValue(box, 'reb_ast')).toBe(14); expect(nbaStatValue(box, 'stl_blk')).toBe(4); }); test('a combo with a missing component never fabricates a total', () => { expect(nbaStatValue({ points: 20, rebounds: 12 }, 'pts_reb_ast')).toBeNull(); }); test('an unmapped NBA stat is unsettleable (absent beats a fabricated outcome)', () => { expect(statValue({ points: 20 }, 'double_doubles', 'wnba')).toBeNull(); }); }); describe('logRowOnDate — ESPN ISO date normalized to UTC+ET', () => { test('MLB rows exact-compare YYYY-MM-DD (unchanged)', () => { expect(logRowOnDate({ date: '2026-07-09' }, '2026-07-09', 'mlb')).toBe(true); expect(logRowOnDate({ date: '2026-07-09' }, '2026-07-08', 'mlb')).toBe(false); }); test('NBA/WNBA ISO row matches its ET date (late tip rolled past UTC midnight)', () => { expect(logRowOnDate({ date: GAME_ISO }, '2026-07-12', 'wnba')).toBe(true); // ET expect(logRowOnDate({ date: GAME_ISO }, '2026-07-13', 'nba')).toBe(true); // UTC expect(logRowOnDate({ date: GAME_ISO }, '2026-07-11', 'wnba')).toBe(false); }); }); describe('settleSnapshot — WNBA grades settle vs the real ESPN game log', () => { test('a locked WNBA over settles to a hit and populates accuracy:wnba + byGrade', async () => { const cache = memCache({ 'snapshot:wnba:latest': snapshot('wnba', [grade({ stat: 'points', line: 19.5, side: 'over', grade: 'A' })]) }); const getPlayerStats = async () => espnLog({ points: 24, rebounds: 12, assists: 3 }); const res = await svc.settleSnapshot('wnba', { ...cache, getPlayerStats, now: () => NOW }); expect(res.settled).toBe(1); expect(res.log[0]).toMatchObject({ result: 'hit', actual: 24, grade: 'A', side: 'O' }); expect(cache.store['accuracy:wnba'].byGrade['A'].hits).toBe(1); expect(cache.store['accuracy:wnba'].overall.pct).toBe(100); }); test('settles a miss (under, actual above line)', async () => { const cache = memCache({ 'snapshot:wnba:latest': snapshot('wnba', [grade({ stat: 'points', line: 19.5, side: 'under', grade: 'B' })]) }); const getPlayerStats = async () => espnLog({ points: 24 }); const res = await svc.settleSnapshot('wnba', { ...cache, getPlayerStats, now: () => NOW }); expect(res.log[0].result).toBe('miss'); expect(cache.store['accuracy:wnba'].byGrade['B'].misses).toBe(1); }); test('settles a push (actual equals line)', async () => { const cache = memCache({ 'snapshot:wnba:latest': snapshot('wnba', [grade({ stat: 'points', line: 24, side: 'over', grade: 'C' })]) }); const getPlayerStats = async () => espnLog({ points: 24 }); const res = await svc.settleSnapshot('wnba', { ...cache, getPlayerStats, now: () => NOW }); expect(res.log[0].result).toBe('push'); }); test('a combo prop (pts_reb_ast) settles', async () => { const cache = memCache({ 'snapshot:wnba:latest': snapshot('wnba', [grade({ stat: 'pts_reb_ast', line: 29.5, side: 'over', grade: 'A' })]) }); const getPlayerStats = async () => espnLog({ points: 20, rebounds: 12, assists: 2 }); // 34 const res = await svc.settleSnapshot('wnba', { ...cache, getPlayerStats, now: () => NOW }); expect(res.settled).toBe(1); expect(res.log[0]).toMatchObject({ result: 'hit', actual: 34, stat: 'pts_reb_ast' }); }); test('idempotent — a second run does not double-count', async () => { const cache = memCache({ 'snapshot:wnba:latest': snapshot('wnba', [grade({ grade: 'A' })]) }); const deps = { ...cache, getPlayerStats: async () => espnLog({ points: 24 }), now: () => NOW }; await svc.settleSnapshot('wnba', deps); const res2 = await svc.settleSnapshot('wnba', deps); expect(res2.settled).toBe(0); expect(res2.log.length).toBe(1); expect(cache.store['accuracy:wnba'].overall.total).toBe(1); }); test('an in-progress / today game does NOT settle (final-honesty guard)', async () => { // Graded today, ESPN returns a row whose ET date is TODAY → never settle it. const gradedToday = '2026-07-13T14:00:00.000Z'; // 10am ET Jul 13 const todaysGame = '2026-07-13T23:00:00.000+00:00'; // 7pm ET Jul 13 (in progress) const g = grade({ stat: 'points', line: 19.5, side: 'over', grade: 'A' }); g.gradedAt.timestamp = gradedToday; const cache = memCache({ 'snapshot:wnba:latest': { sport: 'wnba', updated_at: gradedToday, grades: [g] } }); const getPlayerStats = async () => espnLog({ points: 30 }, todaysGame); const res = await svc.settleSnapshot('wnba', { ...cache, getPlayerStats, now: () => NOW }); expect(res.settled).toBe(0); expect(res.pending).toBe(1); }); test('offline ESPN (found:false) → pending, never throws', async () => { const cache = memCache({ 'snapshot:nba:latest': snapshot('nba', [grade()]) }); const res = await svc.settleSnapshot('nba', { ...cache, getPlayerStats: async () => ({ found: false }), now: () => NOW }); expect(res.settled).toBe(0); expect(res.pending).toBe(1); }); }); describe('ledgerService.settleLedger — WNBA settles vs the ESPN game log', () => { // Minimal chainable Supabase stub (same shape as ledgerService.test.js). function fakeSb() { const calls = { updates: [] }; const state = { selectResults: [], selectCursor: 0, countResult: 0 }; function builder() { const b = { _update: null, upsert() { return Promise.resolve({ error: null }); }, update(v) { b._update = v; return b; }, select() { return b; }, eq() { return b; }, is() { return b; }, not() { return b; }, lt() { return b; }, gte() { return b; }, gt() { return b; }, order() { return b; }, in(col, ids) { if (b._update) { calls.updates.push({ values: b._update, ids }); return Promise.resolve({ error: null }); } return terminal(); }, limit() { return terminal(); }, then(res, rej) { return terminal().then(res, rej); }, }; function terminal() { if (b._update) { calls.updates.push({ values: b._update }); return Promise.resolve({ error: null }); } const data = state.selectResults[state.selectCursor] ?? []; state.selectCursor += 1; return Promise.resolve({ data, error: null, count: state.countResult }); } return b; } return { from: () => builder(), _calls: calls, _state: state }; } test('settles a WNBA row (points) via the ESPN gamelog ET-date match', async () => { const sb = fakeSb(); // ONE select — settleLedger no longer refetches rows by id (that filter // built an 18.5 KB URL and silently returned null; see ledgerService). sb._state.selectResults = [ [{ id: 'r1', player_name: "A'ja Wilson", stat: 'points', line: 19.5, side: 'over', closing_line: 19.5, game_date: '2026-07-12' }], ]; // ESPN ISO date normalizes to ET 2026-07-12 → matches game_date. const getPlayerStats = async () => espnLog({ points: 24 }); const res = await ledger.settleLedger('wnba', { sb, getPlayerStats, now: () => NOW, beforeDate: '2026-07-13' }); expect(res.settled).toBe(1); expect(sb._calls.updates[0].values).toMatchObject({ outcome: 'hit', actual_value: 24, clv: 0, clv_result: 'flat' }); }); test('by_tier populates for WNBA settled rows (records need no new plumbing)', async () => { const sb = fakeSb(); const rows = [ ...Array.from({ length: 14 }, () => ({ outcome: 'hit', clv_result: null, grade: 'A' })), ...Array.from({ length: 6 }, () => ({ outcome: 'miss', clv_result: null, grade: 'A-' })), ]; sb._state.selectResults = [rows]; sb._state.countResult = 0; // by_tier is sport-agnostic: once WNBA rows carry an outcome + grade they // flow into the SAME calibration buckets the MLB path uses (no new plumbing). const agg = await ledger.getModelAggregate({ sb }); expect(agg.by_tier.A.settled).toBe(20); expect(agg.by_tier.A.hit_pct).toBe(70); }); });