# VYNDR — MASTER PLAN
**Single source of truth. Sessions EXECUTE against this and UPDATE it in place.**
Created 2026-07-31 by consolidation. Nothing built in this pass.

> **HOW TO USE:** this supersedes ad-hoc re-derivation. Before any order, read the
> phase you're in. After any order, tick the item and add one line. **Do not
> re-audit anything marked KNOWN** — that redundancy is what this document exists
> to kill.

---

## 0. VERIFICATION LEDGER (what was re-checked in this pass)

**NOTHING was re-verified. No query was run.** Everything required is already
captured in 22 artifacts produced this session plus the canonical board. Per the
order's own clause — *"If everything needed is already in the artifacts, say so and
skip verification"* — this is that case.

**Taken as KNOWN (source in brackets):**
- Model architecture, all layers [`model-architecture-recovery-map.md`]
- Grade↔outcome correlations, collapse cost [`full-output-grade-mapping.md`]
- p_win calibration + holdout verdicts [`grade-diagnostic-t0.md`, `pwin-recalibration-holdout.md`]
- Market-relative edge inversion [`grade-fix-part1-investigation.md`]
- Design implemented-vs-designed, 61 items [`design-vs-build-gap-audit.md`]
- Surface states, orphans, waves [`pre-audit-status-pull.md`, `incomplete-surface-triage.md`]
- Resolution pipeline true state [`resolution-and-clv-investigation.md`, `wave3-*.md`]
- Tier/monetization + founder mechanism [`tier-structure-pull.md`, `tier-redesign-spec.md`, `build2-review-zero-report.md`]
- Sport-boundary cost [`model-architecture-recovery-map.md` §Phase 2]

**Genuinely OPEN → carried as explicit unknowns (not verified because they need a
build or a decision, not a query):** sport order (Kev's call, §A2); board-reasoning
gating (a/b/c, §C2); CLV flag decision (§D3); the ~70 undefined team colours (§B).

---

## A. PER-SPORT MODELS — Phillips doctrine: each sport is its OWN model

### A1. MLB layer stack (the reference module), bottom-up

| # | layer | state | note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Data/feeds | **BUILT** | statsapi free+unlimited; statcast; park; weather; probables. Settles end-to-end. |
| 2 | Similarity (comparable instances) | **BUILT · NOT WIRED · NOT DEPLOYED** | `python/utils/similarity.py`; grade path skips to season/recent averages |
| 3 | Archetypes (batter + pitcher) | **BUILT · display only** | classifies + renders; **does NOT feed the grade** |
| 4 | Variable weights | **PARTIAL/ASSUMED** | engine1's flat ±1.0/±0.5 deltas are hand-set, never fitted |
| 5 | Conditions (park/weather/platoon/arsenal) | **BUILT · CHALLENGER ONLY** | rides `env_*`/`challenger_*`; "measured, never served" |
| 6 | Bayesian inference | **BUILT · NOT WIRED · NOT DEPLOYED** | `python/utils/bayesian.py`, 320 ln, genuinely sport-agnostic math |
| 7 | Calibration | **MEASURED, NOT APPLIED** | isotonic qualifies on holdout (rel .1038→.0939, res .139→.123, n=119) |
| 8 | Grade ladder | **BROKEN** | letter is a factor index, r≈0.005, **inverted** (B 52.4% < C 56.9%) |

**The through-line:** layers 2, 3, 5, 6 are built and *not connected*; layer 8 is
connected and *meaningless*. MLB's fix is connection, not construction.

### A2. Sport order (OPEN — Kev decides)
Proposed by readiness × clock: **1) MLB** (reference, only qualifying model) →
**2) CFB** (has a <30-day clock; soft-market thesis) → **3) NFL** → **4) NBA** →
**5) CBB** → **6) WNBA re-attempt** (abstains today) → **7) soccer** (quota-blocked).
Each gets the same 8-layer template. **No sport is abandoned — abstention is a
state, not a verdict.**

---

## B. DESIGN IMPLEMENTATION — 61 items catalogued
BUILT-TO-SPEC 20 · DRIFTED 7 · PARTIAL 16 · ABSENT 18. Ordered wire-in:
**D1-A done** (6 combat glyphs, boundary-blue completed, reaction primitives, READ-FAB).
**D1-finish done** (rationale/reveal/chips modules — *built, NOT mounted*).
Remaining: **D1-close** (mount — blocked on a ROW-GRAMMAR slot amendment + §C2) ·
**D1-B** (45 unwired glyphs + the 41-vs-74 archetype scope call) · S2 primitive set
(movement strip, crown, disagreement axis, SPLIT) · S3 article media · The Report
email + archive · Offseason artboards · **team colours: only 10 of ~80 defined —
the rest render honest-neutral until a real source exists.**

---

## C. SURFACES
**C1 — done:** Wave 1 wiring · `/compare` · `/record` · Build-1 gate.
**C2 — OPEN DECISION (blocks D1-close):** board reasoning is served ungated while
`tiers.js` declares `reasoning_visible:false`. Options (a) gate it, (b) accept as
free funnel, (c) leave unrendered.
**C3 — remaining:** `/record` **has no nav link** (the surface that justifies the
price) · `/notifications` · Offseason hub · `/system` · S3 media · `/soccer`
(quota) · share cards (blocked by D).

---

## D. RESOLUTION PIPELINE → USER OUTPUT
**KNOWN and load-bearing: settlement WORKS** (scheduler → `settleAllOutcomes` +
`settleAllLedgers`, 937+ settled, growing daily). **What is unreachable is the
user-output TAIL:** `/api/grading/resolve` has no caller, and its fanout holds
webPush/Telegram/Discord but **no share-card step and no recap**.
**D1** wire a trigger (or move the fanout into the settle pass) · **D2** share-card
generation + `/notifications` consent + result posts + recap · **D3 CLV flag
decision** — `clvCaptureReliable()` is *one env var*, and the pre-registered rule
stands: flip only if close_moved is a clear majority AND coverage is representative.
**🔴 Never wire `/api/grading/resolve` as a second settlement path — it double-counts.**

---

## E. SPORT BOUNDARY
Adding a sport is a **~10-file core edit** with four silent-failure modes
(MARKET_MAP → zero props; three stat whitelists → silent 400s; missing projection →
universal refusal; no settled feed → grades forever). **Collapse to a registry** so
a sport is a module. **Blocks all of A2 after MLB.**

---

## F. CHROME AUDIT — 11 items, 4 need a Desk session. **Runs when surfaces are stable, not before.**

---

# THE PHASES — 7 phases, ~18 orders

| phase | orders | contents | blocks |
|---|---|---|---|
| **1. MLB model truth** | 4 | promote isotonic p_win (MLB only, WNBA abstains) · rebuild the ladder on calibrated p_win · re-adjudicate (ROI-by-grade, skew, proj-v1.1, C1 floor) · connect layers 2/3/5/6 | everything model-shaped |
| **2. Resolution tail** | 3 | trigger · share cards + notifications + posts + recap · CLV flag decision | share cards, social proof |
| **3. Surfaces + design lane** *(parallel with 1-2)* | 4 | C2 decision → D1-close mount · `/record` nav + remaining surfaces · D1-B glyphs/archetypes · S2 primitives | Chrome audit |
| **4. Sport boundary** | 2 | registry collapse · MLB re-expressed as the first module | all further sports |
| **5. Sport rollout** | 1 per sport | CFB → NFL → NBA → CBB → WNBA retry → soccer, each on the 8-layer template | — |
| **6. Monetization finish** | 2 | Stripe Phase-B live proof on first real signup · founder launch to the 3 existing users | — |
| **7. Chrome audit + hardening** | 2 | the 11-item visual sweep · credential rotation + migration-drift reconciliation | ship |

**Phases 1–4 and 6–7 = ~17 orders. Phase 5 = 1 order per sport (6 listed).**
**Total ≈ 23 orders to the end state**, of which **~11 are unblocked today**.

---

# DEFINITION OF DONE

**VYNDR is complete when:**
1. **MLB layers 1–8 are BUILT AND CONNECTED** — similarity, archetypes, fitted
   weights, conditions and Bayesian all feed the grade; calibration applied; the
   ladder monotone (A>B>C, no inversion) and proven on held-out data.
2. **Every listed sport is finished on the same 8-layer template**, or explicitly
   abstaining with its reason recorded — never silently absent.
3. **Design fully implemented** — all 61 catalogued items BUILT-TO-SPEC.
4. **Every surface built, reachable and honest** — no orphans, no live-but-not-honest
   surface, no dead component.
5. **Resolution pipeline live end-to-end** — settle → share card / notification /
   post / recap, firing on a real settlement.
6. **Sport boundary is a registry** — a new sport is a module, not a core edit.
7. **Chrome audit passed**, logged-out and entitled.
8. **The record is publishable on its own terms** — CLV either trustworthy-and-
   representative or honestly absent; no claim outruns its evidence.

**The remaining work is finite and countable: ~23 orders across 7 phases.**

---

## STANDING LAWS (carried into every order)
Truth Law — absent beats wrong, no fabrication up or down · per-sport models, never
a global engine · lookahead guard (lock-time fields only) · overfitting guard (fit
one split, prove another) · never mint A's without new information · aggregate proof
is free, itemized judgment is paid · one canonical founder flag · atomicity by unique
index, never a count · cache-bust every post-deploy check · verify-after-write.