# TAKEABLE-ENFORCEMENT AUDIT

**Date:** 2026-08-02 · **READ-ONLY** — nothing enforced, built or fixed. The five
accruing challengers were not touched.

---

## VERDICT: 🔴 GAPS EXIST, AND ONE IS LIVE CONTAMINATION OF THE LEDGER

> **The ledger — the exact table every accruing holdout resolves against — is
> stamping `book`, `locked_odds` and the `takeable` flag itself from books you
> cannot bet: DFS pick'em, offshore, and exchanges.**
>
> **0% before 2026-08-01. 47.9% on 08-01. 42.5% on 08-02.**
>
> **I caused this.** It started the day I widened the books for display.

**Enforcement is the next order, ahead of `hits`.**

---

## PER-PATH ANCHOR REPORT

| path | anchors to | takeable? |
|---|---|---|
| **PROJECTION** | `g.line` via `dedupeProps` → `MODEL_BOOKS` | ⚠️ **model-gated, not takeable-gated** |
| **GRADE** | same | ⚠️ same — clean in practice today |
| **CHALLENGERS** (arch-v1, tb-v1, proj-v1.1) | read off the grade | ✅ inherit the grade's anchor |
| **LEDGER** | `prop.book` / `oddsForSide(prop)` over the **full widened props list** | 🔴 **CONTAMINATED** |
| **DISPLAY / RANKING** | `takeablePWin` → `isTakeable(price)` | ⚠️ gate is correct, **but applied to a contaminated price** |

### The grade path is clean *today*, but not by construction

Served snapshot, 428 grades: **draftkings 422, fanduel 6 — 100% MODEL books.**
`dedupeProps`' `MODEL_BOOKS` filter works.

**But `MODEL_BOOKS` ⊄ `TAKEABLE_BOOKS`.** `MODEL_BOOKS` contains **`pinnacle`**,
which `isTakeableBook` correctly excludes — it is a reference book, not a US
retail one. So the projection *may* anchor to a reference line by design.

**Currently harmless** (pinnacle has returned 0 props since 07-31) and therefore
**exactly the kind of latent gap that bites when the feed recovers.**

---

## THE CONTAMINATION, LOCATED

`ledgerService.recordPipelineGrades`:

```js
const byKey = indexProps(oddsProps);              // ← the FULL, display-widened list
const prop  = byKey[`${nameKey(player)}|${stat}`]; // ← first match wins
...
locked_odds: locked.odds != null ? String(locked.odds) : oddsForSide(prop, side),
takeable:    takeableFor(locked.odds != null ? locked.odds : oddsForSide(prop, side)),
book:        (prop && prop.book) || g.book || null,
```

The grade is computed on a MODEL book, then the ledger row is **re-stamped** from
whatever book happened to index first in the widened list.

### Books actually stamped on ledger rows since 2026-08-01

| book | rows | role | settled |
|---|---:|---|---:|
| draftkings | 518 | ✅ takeable | 49 |
| **dabble** | **707** | 🔴 **DFS pick'em** | **44** |
| betmgm | 348 | ✅ takeable | 126 |
| hardrockbet | 298 | ✅ takeable | 0 |
| **bovada** | **214** | 🔴 reference/offshore | 3 |
| **onexbet** | **42** | 🔴 excluded | 0 |
| **pinnacle** | **36** | 🔴 reference | 0 |
| **kalshi** | **7** | 🔴 exchange — mean \|odds\| **1120** | 0 |

**`dabble` alone is 24% of all rows.** `kalshi`'s mean absolute price of **1120**
is a self-evident tell: no US bettor is taking that as the anchor of a graded prop.

### What is confirmed contaminated, and what is not

**Confirmed:** `book`, `locked_odds`, and **`takeable`** — the flag is computed
*from* the contaminated price, so it is not merely mislabelled, it is **wrong on
its own terms**.

**Not confirmed:** `line`. It comes from `locked.line`/`g.line`, which trace to the
graded (model-book) prop. **I did not verify it end-to-end and am not claiming it
is clean.** The enforcement order should check it.

### Blast radius on the accruing verdicts — bounded, but growing

| | settled rows since 08-01 |
|---|---:|
| clean-book | 178 |
| **contaminated-book** | **47 (21%)** |

**Most contaminated rows have not settled yet** — 707 `dabble` rows are pending and
**will settle into the holdouts tonight and tomorrow.** The damage is mostly
*ahead* of us, which is what makes this urgent rather than merely historical.

---

## PREDICTION-TARGET vs REFERENCE-RULER — the distinction holds

**Do NOT over-enforce takeable onto the reference ruler.** They answer different
questions and collapsing them would break market measurement:

| quantity | must be | current | correct? |
|---|---|---|---|
| the line the model **projects against** | **TAKEABLE** | model-gated | ⚠️ gap |
| the price the row is **scored on** (`locked_odds`) | **TAKEABLE** | contaminated | 🔴 gap |
| `fair_prob` / consensus / `edge` diagnostics | **REFERENCE** (incl. exchanges, pinnacle) | reference | ✅ **correct — leave alone** |

`bookRoles`' three-way split is right and must not be collapsed. **The bug is not
the split — it is that one write path ignores it.**

---

## SEQUENCED STACK

**(a) 🔴 TAKEABLE ENFORCEMENT — next order.** Index the ledger's prop lookup over
**takeable books only**, verify `line` end-to-end, decide whether `pinnacle` may
anchor a projection (it may price the *ruler*, but should it price the *target*?),
and decide what to do with the ~1,031 already-contaminated rows: **re-stamp, or
tag and exclude from holdouts.** Do not silently pool them.

**(b) Structural `Number(null) === 0` guard.** Six occurrences, the most recent in
my own new module yesterday. A shared unknown-vs-zero helper. **`hits` will
re-trigger it** — its 0.5 lines make P(0) the whole game, and a null rate read as
zero is maximally wrong exactly there.

**(c) `hits` fix** — built on both invariants above, not before them.

**Carry-forward:** the tb-v1 verdict (accruing, slower clock) · the third
pre-registered branch (*improves ranking but stays low → promote **and**
recalibrate*) · the **100s Cloudflare origin timeout** on a ~115s snapshot (the
work completes server-side, but the trigger returns 524 — worth a flag before it
is mistaken for a failure).

## TAGS

**VERIFIED:** ledger `book`/`locked_odds`/`takeable` contaminated on 42–48% of rows
since 2026-08-01, 0% before · leak located at `recordPipelineGrades`' index over
the widened props list · served grade path clean today (100% MODEL books) ·
`MODEL_BOOKS` ⊄ `TAKEABLE_BOOKS` via `pinnacle` · 47 contaminated rows already
settled, ~700 pending.

**NOT VERIFIED:** whether the stored `line` is also contaminated. Check it in the
enforcement order rather than assuming either way.