// Session 58 (Phase 1) — ledgerService: the truth infrastructure. // Everything runs against a fake Supabase client — zero network, zero env. const ledger = require('../../src/services/ledgerService'); const { rowsFromSnapshot, computeClv, clvResultOf } = ledger.__internals; // ---- fake Supabase client ------------------------------------------------ // Minimal chainable stub for the exact query shapes ledgerService uses. function fakeSb() { const calls = { upserts: [], updates: [] }; const state = { selectResults: [], selectCursor: 0, countResult: 0 }; function builder() { const b = { _update: null, upsert(rows, opts) { calls.upserts.push({ rows, opts }); return Promise.resolve({ error: null }); }, update(values) { b._update = values; return b; }, select() { return b; }, eq() { return b; }, is() { return b; }, not() { return b; }, lt() { return b; }, gte() { return b; }, in(col, ids) { if (b._update) { calls.updates.push({ values: b._update, ids }); return Promise.resolve({ error: null }); } return terminal(); }, order() { return b; }, limit() { return terminal(); }, then(resolve, reject) { return terminal().then(resolve, reject); }, }; function terminal() { if (b._update) { calls.updates.push({ values: b._update }); return Promise.resolve({ error: null }); } const data = state.selectResults[state.selectCursor] ?? []; state.selectCursor += 1; return Promise.resolve({ data, error: null, count: state.countResult }); } return b; } return { from: () => builder(), _calls: calls, _state: state }; } // ---- fixtures -------------------------------------------------------------- const NOW = '2026-07-10T18:00:00.000Z'; const GRADE = { player: 'Aaron Judge', player_name: 'Aaron Judge', stat_type: 'home_runs', line: 0.5, direction: 'over', grade: 'A', confidence: 78, edge_pct: 12.4, projection: 0.9, gradedAt: { line: 0.5, odds: -115, timestamp: NOW }, }; const PROP = { player: 'Aaron Judge', stat_type: 'home_runs', line: 0.5, home_team: 'NYY', away_team: 'BOS', game_time: '2026-07-10T23:05:00Z', book: 'draftkings', over_odds: -115, under_odds: -105, }; describe('rowsFromSnapshot — the write shape', () => { test('builds a public row with REAL captured market values', () => { const rows = rowsFromSnapshot('mlb', [GRADE], [PROP], NOW); expect(rows).toHaveLength(1); const r = rows[0]; expect(r.user_id).toBeNull(); expect(r.player_key).toBe('aaron judge'); expect(r.line).toBe(0.5); // the locked book line expect(r.locked_odds).toBe('-115'); // real odds at grade time expect(r.book).toBe('draftkings'); expect(r.model_value).toBe(0.9); // MODEL output, distinct from line expect(r.game_date).toBe('2026-07-10'); // 23:05Z = 19:05 ET same day expect(r.game_id).toBe('mlb:2026-07-10:BOS@NYY'); }); // Session 59 — team/opponent addendum (migration 020). test('captures team + opponent from the real feed (full-name MLB teams)', () => { const grade = { ...GRADE, team: 'New York Yankees' }; const prop = { ...PROP, home_team: 'New York Yankees', away_team: 'Boston Red Sox' }; const [r] = rowsFromSnapshot('mlb', [grade], [prop], NOW); expect(r.team).toBe('New York Yankees'); expect(r.opponent).toBe('Boston Red Sox'); }); test('opponent is NEVER guessed: team not in the game → opponent null', () => { const grade = { ...GRADE, team: 'Tampa Bay Rays' }; const prop = { ...PROP, home_team: 'Milwaukee Brewers', away_team: 'Pittsburgh Pirates' }; const [r] = rowsFromSnapshot('mlb', [grade], [prop], NOW); expect(r.team).toBe('Tampa Bay Rays'); expect(r.opponent).toBeNull(); }); test('no team from the stats resolve → both null (absent beats wrong)', () => { const [r] = rowsFromSnapshot('mlb', [GRADE], [PROP], NOW); expect(r.team).toBeNull(); expect(r.opponent).toBeNull(); }); test('refused reads and grade-less entries never become rows', () => { const refused = { ...GRADE, grade: null, insufficient_data: true }; const gradeless = { ...GRADE, grade: undefined }; expect(rowsFromSnapshot('mlb', [refused, gradeless], [PROP], NOW)).toEqual([]); }); test('a grade with no captured line is dropped — never a fabricated line', () => { const noLine = { ...GRADE, line: undefined, gradedAt: { line: null, odds: null, timestamp: NOW } }; expect(rowsFromSnapshot('mlb', [noLine], [PROP], NOW)).toEqual([]); }); }); describe('recordPipelineGrades — idempotent upsert', () => { test('upserts with ignoreDuplicates on the dedupe constraint', async () => { const sb = fakeSb(); const res = await ledger.recordPipelineGrades('mlb', [GRADE], [PROP], { sb, now: () => NOW }); expect(res.written).toBe(1); expect(sb._calls.upserts).toHaveLength(1); const { opts } = sb._calls.upserts[0]; expect(opts.onConflict).toBe('user_id,player_key,stat,line,side,game_id'); expect(opts.ignoreDuplicates).toBe(true); // re-runs never overwrite the lock }); test('no-ops without supabase env when no client injected', async () => { const res = await ledger.recordPipelineGrades('mlb', [GRADE], [PROP], {}); expect(res.skipped).toBeTruthy(); }); }); describe('computeClv — signed by side (Phase 1 amendment)', () => { test('OVER: closing below the locked line = positive = beat', () => { expect(computeClv('over', 1.5, 1.0)).toBe(0.5); expect(clvResultOf(computeClv('over', 1.5, 1.0))).toBe('beat'); }); test('OVER: closing above the locked line = negative = faded', () => { expect(computeClv('over', 1.5, 2.0)).toBe(-0.5); expect(clvResultOf(computeClv('over', 1.5, 2.0))).toBe('faded'); }); test('UNDER: inverse signs', () => { expect(computeClv('under', 1.5, 2.0)).toBe(0.5); // market rose toward the under expect(clvResultOf(computeClv('under', 1.5, 2.0))).toBe('beat'); expect(computeClv('under', 1.5, 1.0)).toBe(-0.5); expect(clvResultOf(computeClv('under', 1.5, 1.0))).toBe('faded'); }); test('unchanged line = flat; missing closing = null (absent, not zero)', () => { expect(clvResultOf(computeClv('over', 1.5, 1.5))).toBe('flat'); expect(computeClv('over', 1.5, null)).toBeNull(); expect(clvResultOf(null)).toBeNull(); }); }); describe('settleLedger — outcome + CLV vs the real result', () => { test('settles hit/miss/push from the game log and stamps CLV', async () => { const sb = fakeSb(); // 1st select: open ids; 2nd: full rows. sb._state.selectResults = [ [{ id: 'r1' }, { id: 'r2' }], [ { id: 'r1', player_name: 'Aaron Judge', stat: 'home_runs', line: 0.5, side: 'over', closing_line: 0.5, game_date: '2026-07-09' }, { id: 'r2', player_name: 'Aaron Judge', stat: 'hits', line: 1.5, side: 'over', closing_line: 2.5, game_date: '2026-07-09' }, ], ]; const getPlayerStats = async () => ({ found: true, last10: [{ date: '2026-07-09', stat: { homeRuns: 1, hits: 1 } }], }); const res = await ledger.settleLedger('mlb', { sb, getPlayerStats, now: () => NOW, beforeDate: '2026-07-10' }); expect(res.settled).toBe(2); const byOutcome = sb._calls.updates.map((u) => u.values); expect(byOutcome[0]).toMatchObject({ outcome: 'hit', actual_value: 1, clv: 0, clv_result: 'flat' }); // 1 hit vs o1.5 = miss; locked 1.5 closed 2.5 for an over = faded. expect(byOutcome[1]).toMatchObject({ outcome: 'miss', actual_value: 1, clv: -1, clv_result: 'faded' }); }); test('no game-log row for the date → stays pending (never guesses)', async () => { const sb = fakeSb(); sb._state.selectResults = [ [{ id: 'r1' }], [{ id: 'r1', player_name: 'Aaron Judge', stat: 'home_runs', line: 0.5, side: 'over', closing_line: null, game_date: '2026-07-09' }], ]; const getPlayerStats = async () => ({ found: true, last10: [{ date: '2026-07-08', stat: { homeRuns: 2 } }] }); const res = await ledger.settleLedger('mlb', { sb, getPlayerStats, now: () => NOW, beforeDate: '2026-07-10' }); expect(res.settled).toBe(0); expect(res.pending).toBe(1); expect(sb._calls.updates).toHaveLength(0); }); }); describe('captureClosing — real feed values only', () => { test('updates open rows from the current odds; unmatched rows untouched', async () => { const sb = fakeSb(); sb._state.selectResults = [[ { id: 'r1', player_key: 'aaron judge', stat: 'home_runs', side: 'over' }, { id: 'r2', player_key: 'ghost player', stat: 'hits', side: 'over' }, ]]; const res = await ledger.captureClosing('mlb', [PROP], { sb, gameDate: '2026-07-10' }); expect(res.updated).toBe(1); // only the matched prop expect(sb._calls.updates[0].values).toEqual({ closing_line: 0.5, closing_odds: '-115' }); expect(sb._calls.updates[0].ids).toEqual(['r1']); }); }); describe('getModelAggregate — never a % under min sample', () => { test('below 20 settles → hit_pct/beat_close_pct null, counts real', async () => { const sb = fakeSb(); sb._state.selectResults = [ Array.from({ length: 5 }, () => ({ outcome: 'hit', clv_result: 'beat' })), ]; sb._state.countResult = 42; const agg = await ledger.getModelAggregate({ sb }); expect(agg.settled).toBe(5); expect(agg.hits).toBe(5); expect(agg.hit_pct).toBeNull(); // n<20 — RECORD BUILDING expect(agg.beat_close_pct).toBeNull(); expect(agg.pending).toBe(42); }); test('at 20+ settles → both percentages render', async () => { const sb = fakeSb(); const rows = [ ...Array.from({ length: 13 }, () => ({ outcome: 'hit', clv_result: 'beat' })), ...Array.from({ length: 7 }, () => ({ outcome: 'miss', clv_result: 'faded' })), ]; sb._state.selectResults = [rows]; sb._state.countResult = 3; const agg = await ledger.getModelAggregate({ sb }); expect(agg.settled).toBe(20); expect(agg.hit_pct).toBe(65); // 13 / (13+7) expect(agg.beat_close_pct).toBe(65); // 13 beat / 20 with clv }); }); // Session 60 (night2/F, 5.5) — calibration by grade tier. describe('getModelAggregate — per-tier calibration (n≥20 per tier)', () => { test('a tier at 20+ settles gets a pct; a small tier stays building (null)', async () => { const sb = fakeSb(); const rows = [ ...Array.from({ length: 14 }, () => ({ outcome: 'hit', clv_result: null, grade: 'A' })), ...Array.from({ length: 6 }, () => ({ outcome: 'miss', clv_result: null, grade: 'A-' })), ...Array.from({ length: 3 }, () => ({ outcome: 'hit', clv_result: null, grade: 'B' })), ]; sb._state.selectResults = [rows]; sb._state.countResult = 0; const agg = await ledger.getModelAggregate({ sb }); expect(agg.by_tier.A.settled).toBe(20); // A + A- bucket together expect(agg.by_tier.A.hit_pct).toBe(70); // 14/(14+6) expect(agg.by_tier.B.settled).toBe(3); expect(agg.by_tier.B.hit_pct).toBeNull(); // under 20 → building }); }); // Session 61 — the odds index prefers a fully-priced book row (the null // locked_odds rows from day one: first-seen betmgm SB unders had no juice // while another book priced both sides). describe('indexProps — prefers a book row with both sides priced', () => { const { indexProps } = ledger.__internals; test('a later both-sided row replaces a one-sided first row', () => { const oneSided = { player: 'A Guy', stat_type: 'stolen_bases', line: 0.5, book: 'betmgm', over_odds: 120, under_odds: null }; const bothSided = { player: 'A Guy', stat_type: 'stolen_bases', line: 0.5, book: 'fanduel', over_odds: 130, under_odds: -170 }; const idx = indexProps([oneSided, bothSided]); expect(idx['a guy|stolen_bases'].book).toBe('fanduel'); }); test('a both-sided first row is never displaced', () => { const bothSided = { player: 'A Guy', stat_type: 'hits', line: 1.5, book: 'fanduel', over_odds: -110, under_odds: -110 }; const oneSided = { player: 'A Guy', stat_type: 'hits', line: 1.5, book: 'betmgm', over_odds: -115, under_odds: null }; const idx = indexProps([bothSided, oneSided]); expect(idx['a guy|hits'].book).toBe('fanduel'); }); }); // S6 (A1 board) — CLV distribution on the model aggregate. The n>=20 gate is // centralized HERE (getModelAggregate) — consumers never re-derive it. describe('getModelAggregate — clv_distribution (n>=20 gate lives in the service)', () => { const { clvBucketIndex, CLV_BUCKETS } = ledger.__internals; test('below 20 settles → clv_distribution is null (never a small-sample chart)', async () => { const sb = fakeSb(); sb._state.selectResults = [ Array.from({ length: 5 }, () => ({ outcome: 'hit', clv_result: 'beat', clv: 0.5 })), ]; const agg = await ledger.getModelAggregate({ sb }); expect(agg.clv_distribution).toBeNull(); }); test('at 20+ settles → seven ordered buckets, counts bucketed by signed clv', async () => { const sb = fakeSb(); const rows = [ ...Array.from({ length: 8 }, () => ({ outcome: 'hit', clv_result: 'beat', clv: 0.5 })), ...Array.from({ length: 4 }, () => ({ outcome: 'hit', clv_result: 'beat', clv: 1.5 })), ...Array.from({ length: 5 }, () => ({ outcome: 'miss', clv_result: 'faded', clv: -0.5 })), ...Array.from({ length: 2 }, () => ({ outcome: 'miss', clv_result: 'flat', clv: 0 })), { outcome: 'push', clv_result: 'faded', clv: -3 }, // outlier clamps into the edge bucket ]; sb._state.selectResults = [rows]; const agg = await ledger.getModelAggregate({ sb }); const dist = agg.clv_distribution; expect(dist).toHaveLength(7); expect(dist.map((b) => b.label)).toEqual(CLV_BUCKETS.map((b) => b.label)); expect(dist[0]).toMatchObject({ side: 'faded', count: 1 }); // [-2,-1) — clamped -3 expect(dist[2]).toMatchObject({ side: 'faded', count: 5 }); // [-.5,0) — -0.5 closed on the left expect(dist[1]).toMatchObject({ side: 'faded', count: 0 }); // [-1,-.5) — empty expect(dist[3]).toMatchObject({ side: 'flat', count: 2 }); // exactly 0 expect(dist[4]).toMatchObject({ side: 'beat', count: 8 }); // (0,.5] expect(dist[6]).toMatchObject({ side: 'beat', count: 4 }); // (1,2] — 1.5 }); test('rows without a settled clv value never fabricate a bucket', async () => { const sb = fakeSb(); sb._state.selectResults = [ Array.from({ length: 20 }, () => ({ outcome: 'hit', clv_result: 'beat', clv: null })), ]; const agg = await ledger.getModelAggregate({ sb }); expect(agg.clv_distribution).toBeNull(); // no real clv values → nothing }); test('clvBucketIndex edges: boundaries land per the spec intervals', () => { expect(clvBucketIndex(0)).toBe(3); expect(clvBucketIndex(0.5)).toBe(4); // (0,.5] closed on the right expect(clvBucketIndex(0.51)).toBe(5); expect(clvBucketIndex(1)).toBe(5); // (.5,1] expect(clvBucketIndex(1.01)).toBe(6); expect(clvBucketIndex(-0.5)).toBe(2); // [-.5,0) closed on the left expect(clvBucketIndex(-0.51)).toBe(1); // [-1,-.5) expect(clvBucketIndex(-1)).toBe(1); // [-1,-.5) closed on the left expect(clvBucketIndex(-1.01)).toBe(0); // [-2,-1) expect(clvBucketIndex(-9)).toBe(0); // clamp expect(clvBucketIndex(9)).toBe(6); // clamp expect(clvBucketIndex(null)).toBe(-1); // absent beats wrong }); });