vyndr/scripts/prove-tb-factors.js

#!/usr/bin/env node
'use strict';

/**
 * prove-tb-factors — TOTAL BASES IS A DIFFERENT EVENT FROM HITS.
 *
 * A hit asks whether the ball found a hole. Total bases asks how hard and how
 * far it was struck. So the causally-correct factors differ, and the
 * archetype differential is expected to INVERT: contact defence proved for hits,
 * where a slap single is worth exactly one base regardless of who fielded it;
 * for total bases the value should live with the power profiles.
 *
 * ── THE BASELINE IS THE CHAMPION, NOT "HE'S DUE" ─────────────────────────
 * The hits gate used the player's own leave-one-out base rate as the null. That
 * cannot be reproduced here: total-bases lines VARY (1.5 on 559 rows, 0.5 on
 * 345, 2.5 on 45), and a player's rate of clearing 1.5 bases is a different
 * quantity from his rate of clearing 0.5. With 988 rows over 341 players there
 * are roughly two rows per player-line — far too thin to estimate a per-line
 * personal base rate without inventing one.
 *
 * So the null here is the COUNTER'S OWN FORECAST (p_win), which already prices
 * the line. That is a strictly HARDER null than a base rate, not an easier one:
 * a factor must improve on the champion, not merely on "he's due". Stated
 * plainly because it differs from the hits run and the difference matters when
 * comparing the two.
 *
 *   SUPABASE_URL=... node scripts/prove-tb-factors.js
 */

require('dotenv').config();
const { createClient } = require('@supabase/supabase-js');
const fg = require('../src/services/model/factorGate');
const sk = require('../src/services/model/skillProjection');
const tl = require('../src/services/model/testLedger');
const mlb = require('../src/services/adapters/mlbStatsAdapter');
const { knownNumber, knownRate } = require('../src/utils/known');
const { nameKey } = require('../src/utils/playerName');
const sd = require('../src/services/model/sprayDefense');
const pss = require('../src/services/model/platoonSeverity');
const pw = require('../src/services/model/parkWeather');

/** League-typical hit-type shares; the atom reshapes these and TB follows. */
const BASE_SHARES = { single: 0.655, double: 0.195, triple: 0.017, home_run: 0.133 };
const tbFrom = (s) => s.single + 2 * s.double + 3 * s.triple + 4 * s.home_run;

const SB_URL = process.env.SUPABASE_URL;
const SB_KEY = process.env.SUPABASE_SERVICE_ROLE_KEY || process.env.SUPABASE_SERVICE_KEY;
const PAGE = 1000;
const ARCHS = (process.env.TB_ARCHETYPES || 'ALL,BOMBER,GHOST,BRUSH,DRIVER').split(',');

async function page(sb, table, select, apply) {
  const out = [];
  for (let from = 0; ; from += PAGE) {
    const { data, error } = await apply(sb.from(table).select(select)).range(from, from + PAGE - 1);
    if (error) throw error;
    if (!data || data.length === 0) break;
    out.push(...data);
    if (data.length < PAGE) break;
  }
  return out;
}

/**
 * THE FACTORS. Each returns a MULTIPLIER on the base rate, or null when the
 * input is absent — an absent factor must leave the baseline untouched rather
 * than nudge it toward some default.
 */
const FACTORS = [
  {
    key: 'barrel_rate',
    needs: ['barrel_pct'],
    entity: (r) => r.player_key,
    mechanism: 'THE EXTRA-BASE SKILL ITSELF. A barrel is the exit-velocity and launch-angle combination that produces extra bases; it is the most direct expression of what total bases measures, where for hits it is largely irrelevant to whether a grounder finds a hole.',
    // UNITS: fromStatcastRow returns barrel_pct as a FRACTION (0.06), not the
    // 0-100 the raw table stores. Writing this against the percentage scale
    // clamped every row to the maximum negative shift, which then "improved"
    // Brier only by leaning on the counter's known global over-prediction.
    apply: (r) => 1 + Math.max(-0.20, Math.min(0.20, (r.barrel_pct - 0.078) * 1.8)),
  },
  {
    key: 'exit_velo',
    needs: ['avg_exit_velo'],
    entity: (r) => r.player_key,
    mechanism: 'How hard the ball leaves the bat. Separates a double in the gap from a fly out, which is exactly the margin total bases lives on.',
    apply: (r) => 1 + Math.max(-0.15, Math.min(0.15, (r.avg_exit_velo - 88.9) * 0.020)),
  },
  {
    key: 'hard_contact_allowed',
    needs: ['pitcher_hard_hit_allowed'],
    entity: (r) => r.starter_id,
    mechanism: 'A pitcher who concedes hard contact concedes EXTRA BASES, not just hits. For total bases this should read stronger than it did for hits.',
    apply: (r) => 1 + Math.max(-0.15, Math.min(0.15, (r.pitcher_hard_hit_allowed - 0.389) * 1.2)),
  },
  {
    key: 'park_weather_hit_type',
    needs: ['park_weather_ratio'],
    entity: (r) => r.park_weather_ratio,
    mechanism: 'Whether a struck ball becomes a double, clears the fence, or dies at the track. The atom reshapes HIT TYPE rather than P(hit), which is the only form that can express a total-bases effect.',
    apply: (r) => r.park_weather_ratio,
    caveat: 'venue-borne: replication caps at the number of distinct park readings, not the row count',
  },
  {
    key: 'platoon_severity',
    needs: ['platoon_severity_mult'],
    entity: (r) => r.player_key,
    mechanism: "The hitter's OWN measured split, shrunk by the smaller side's plate appearances and refused below a floor.",
    apply: (r) => r.platoon_severity_mult,
  },
];

async function main() {
  if (!SB_URL || !SB_KEY) throw new Error('SUPABASE_URL / service key required');
  const sb = createClient(SB_URL, SB_KEY, { auth: { persistSession: false } });

  const statcast = await page(sb, 'statcast_aggregates', '*', (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb'));
  const batters = new Map(); const pitchersById = new Map();
  for (const r of statcast) {
    const prof = sk.fromStatcastRow(r);
    if (r.role === 'pitcher' && r.source_id != null) pitchersById.set(Number(r.source_id), prof);
    if (r.role === 'batter' && r.player_key) batters.set(r.player_key, prof);
  }
  const sprayRows = await page(sb, 'batter_spray', '*', (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb'));
  const sprayByKey = new Map();
  for (const r of sprayRows) {
    if (!r.player_key) continue;
    const prev = sprayByKey.get(r.player_key);
    if (!prev || String(r.as_of_date) > String(prev.as_of_date)) sprayByKey.set(r.player_key, r);
  }

  const platRows = await page(sb, 'platoon_splits', '*', (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb'));
  const platByKey = new Map();
  for (const r of platRows) {
    if (!r.player_key) continue;
    const prev = platByKey.get(r.player_key);
    if (!prev || String(r.as_of_date) > String(prev.as_of_date)) platByKey.set(r.player_key, r);
  }

  const parkRows = await page(sb, 'park_dimensions', '*', (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb'));
  const parkByVenue = new Map();
  for (const p of parkRows) if (!parkByVenue.has(p.venue_id)) parkByVenue.set(p.venue_id, p);
  const parkLeague = pw.leagueGeometry([...parkByVenue.values()]);
  const ctxRows = await page(sb, 'game_context', 'game_id, venue_id, wx_temp_f, wx_wind_speed_mph, wx_wind_direction_deg', (q) => q);
  const ctxBy = new Map(ctxRows.map((c) => [c.game_id, c]));

  const defRows = await page(sb, 'team_defense', '*', (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb'));
  const defByTeam = new Map();
  for (const d of defRows) defByTeam.set(d.team, d);

  const snaps = await page(sb, 'model_snapshots', 'player_key, game_date, archetype, stat',
    (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb').eq('stat', 'total_bases').not('archetype', 'is', null));
  const archOf = new Map();
  for (const s of snaps) archOf.set(`${s.player_key}|${s.game_date}`, s.archetype);

  const led = await page(sb, 'ledger_entries',
    'id, game_id, player_key, player_name, line, side, outcome, game_date, p_win, quarantine_reason, env_park_base',
    (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb').is('user_id', null).eq('stat', 'total_bases')
      .in('outcome', ['hit', 'miss']).not('p_win', 'is', null));
  const clean = led.filter((r) => !(r.quarantine_reason || '').startsWith('nontakeable_book'));

  // Opponent faced, from each hitter's own game log.
  const names = new Map();
  for (const r of clean) if (!names.has(r.player_key)) names.set(r.player_key, r.player_name);
  const oppBy = new Map(); const startersBy = new Map();
  const dates = [...new Set(clean.map((r) => r.game_date))].sort();
  for (const d of dates) {
    try {
      const games = await mlb.getScheduleWithPitchers(d);
      for (const g of games) {
        if (!g.home || !g.away) continue;
        if (g.home.probablePitcher) startersBy.set(`${d}|OPP:${g.home.team}`, g.home.probablePitcher.id);
        if (g.away.probablePitcher) startersBy.set(`${d}|OPP:${g.away.team}`, g.away.probablePitcher.id);
      }
    } catch { /* absent slate */ }
  }
  for (const [key, name] of names) {
    try {
      const found = await mlb.searchPlayer(name);
      if (!found || !found.id) continue;
      const log = await mlb.getPlayerGameLog(found.id);
      for (const g of log || []) if (g && g.date && g.opponent) oppBy.set(`${key}|${String(g.date).slice(0, 10)}`, g.opponent);
    } catch { /* no log */ }
  }

  // Per-player base rate — the honest null: "he's due", no reading of tonight.
  const byPlayer = new Map();
  for (const r of clean) {
    const cur = byPlayer.get(r.player_key) || { n: 0, w: 0 };
    cur.n += 1; cur.w += r.outcome === 'hit' ? 1 : 0;
    byPlayer.set(r.player_key, cur);
  }

  const loss = { no_batter_profile: 0, thin_base_rate: 0, no_opponent: 0, no_pitcher: 0, kept: 0 };
  const rows = [];
  for (const r of clean) {
    const bat = batters.get(r.player_key);
    const bp = byPlayer.get(r.player_key);
    if (!bat) loss.no_batter_profile += 1;
    if (!bp || bp.n < 3) { loss.thin_base_rate += 1; continue; }
    // THE NULL IS THE CHAMPION. Total-bases lines vary, so a per-line personal
    // base rate cannot be estimated from ~2 rows per player-line without
    // inventing one. p_win already prices the line, and beating it is a harder
    // bar than beating "he's due".
    const baseline = knownNumber(r.p_win);
    if (baseline === null) { loss.thin_base_rate += 1; continue; }
    const faced = oppBy.get(`${r.player_key}|${r.game_date}`) || null;
    const nick = faced ? String(faced).split(' ').pop() : null;
    const def = faced ? (defByTeam.get(faced) || defByTeam.get(nick)) : null;
    if (!faced) loss.no_opponent += 1;
    const starterId = faced ? startersBy.get(`${r.game_date}|OPP:${faced}`) : null;
    const pit = starterId != null ? pitchersById.get(Number(starterId)) : null;
    if (faced && !pit) loss.no_pitcher += 1;
    loss.kept += 1;
    rows.push({
      id: r.id,
      // Errors are correlated WITHIN a game — shared starter, park, weather and
      // the game's own randomness — so the interval must be clustered on it.
      // Three of these factors (pitcher profile, team defence, park) are also
      // CONSTANT across every hitter facing that starter, which makes row
      // resampling straightforwardly wrong for them.
      cluster: r.game_id,
      opp: faced,
      starter_id: starterId != null ? Number(starterId) : null,
      player_key: r.player_key,
      archetype: archOf.get(`${r.player_key}|${r.game_date}`) || null,
      won: r.outcome === 'hit' ? 1 : 0,
      baseline,
      team_defense: def ? knownNumber(def.oaa_sum) : null,
      pitcher_hard_hit_allowed: pit ? knownRate(pit.hard_hit_pct) : null,
      line: knownNumber(r.line),
      barrel_pct: bat ? knownRate(bat.barrel_pct) : null,
      avg_exit_velo: bat ? knownNumber(bat.avg_exit_velo) : null,
      park_weather_ratio: (() => {
        const c = ctxBy.get(r.game_id);
        if (!c || c.venue_id == null) return null;
        const dims = parkByVenue.get(c.venue_id);
        if (!dims) return null;
        const read = pw.parkWeatherRead({ dims, wx: c, league: parkLeague });
        if (!read) return null;
        const shaped = pw.applyToShares(BASE_SHARES, read);
        return tbFrom(shaped) / tbFrom(BASE_SHARES);
      })(),
      platoon_severity_mult: (() => {
        const sp = platByKey.get(r.player_key);
        if (!sp || !bat || !bat.bats || !pit || !pit.throws) return null;
        const out = pss.platoonRead({
          splits: {
            vl: { pa: sp.vl_pa, atBats: sp.vl_ab, hits: sp.vl_hits },
            vr: { pa: sp.vr_pa, atBats: sp.vr_ab, hits: sp.vr_hits },
          },
          bats: bat.bats, throws: pit.throws,
        });
        return out && out.readable ? out.multiplier : null;
      })(),
      spray_multiplier: (() => {
        const sp = sprayByKey.get(r.player_key);
        const posOaa = def && def.position_oaa ? def.position_oaa : null;
        if (!sp || !posOaa || !bat || !bat.bats) return null;
        const out = sd.sprayDefenseMultiplier({ spray: sp, bats: bat.bats, positionOaa: posOaa });
        return out ? out.multiplier : null;
      })(),
      platoon_edge: (bat && pit && bat.bats && pit.throws)
        ? (String(bat.bats)[0] !== String(pit.throws)[0] ? 1 : -1) : null,
    });
  }

  // Cumulative Bonferroni across the programme lifetime.
  const store = tl.supabaseStore(sb);
  const mc = await tl.recordAndCount(store, FACTORS.flatMap((f) =>
    ARCHS.map((a) => ({ sport: 'mlb', stat: 'total_bases', archetype: a === 'ALL' ? null : a, interaction: `factor:${f.key}`, target: 'outcome' }))));

  // STEP 1 — FULL-HISTORY SAMPLE AUDIT PER SLOT, before any gating.
  const audit = [];
  for (const f of FACTORS) {
    for (const arch of ARCHS) {
      const slot = arch === 'ALL' ? rows : rows.filter((r) => String(r.archetype || '').toUpperCase() === arch);
      const usable = slot.filter((r) => f.needs.every((k) => knownNumber(r[k]) !== null));
      audit.push({
        factor: f.key,
        archetype: arch,
        rows: usable.length,
        games: new Set(usable.map((r) => r.cluster).filter(Boolean)).size,
        players: new Set(usable.map((r) => r.player_key)).size,
      });
    }
  }

  const results = [];
  for (const arch of ARCHS) {
    const slot = arch === 'ALL' ? rows : rows.filter((r) => String(r.archetype || '').toUpperCase() === arch);
    for (const f of FACTORS) {
      const usable = slot.filter((r) => f.needs.every((k) => knownNumber(r[k]) !== null));
      // A park effect is replicated across PARKS, not across games: 619 rows in
      // 45 games still only ever saw ~23 ballparks, and unmodelled park
      // heterogeneity is confounded with the very thing being estimated. So the
      // cluster is the COARSER of the game and the entity the treatment rides on.
      const ents = f.entity ? new Set(usable.map((r) => String(f.entity(r)))) : null;
      const games = new Set(usable.map((r) => String(r.cluster)));
      const useEntity = ents && ents.size < games.size;
      const paired = usable.map((r) => {
        const mult = f.apply(r);
        const cond = mult === null ? null : Math.min(0.99, Math.max(0.01, r.baseline * mult));
        return {
          baseline: r.baseline,
          conditioned: cond,
          won: r.won,
          cluster: useEntity ? `e:${f.entity(r)}` : r.cluster,
        };
      });
      const v = fg.adjudicate(paired, {
        factor: f.key, archetype: arch, stat: 'total_bases',
        cumulativeTests: mc.cumulative_tests,      // native cumulative correction
      });
      results.push({
        archetype: arch, factor: f.key, n: v.movement.n,
        clusters: v.improvement ? v.improvement.effective_n : null,
        cluster_unit: useEntity ? 'treatment_entity' : 'game',
        distinct_games: games.size,
        distinct_entities: ents ? ents.size : null,
        mean_abs_shift: v.movement.mean_abs_shift,
        brier_delta: v.improvement ? v.improvement.brier_delta : null,
        ci: v.improvement ? v.improvement.ci : null,
        ci_level: v.improvement ? v.improvement.ci_level : null,
        verdict: v.verdict,
        reason: v.reason,
        ...(f.caveat ? { input_caveat: f.caveat } : {}),
      });
    }
  }

  console.log(JSON.stringify({
    baseline: "each row scored against the player's OWN leave-one-out base rate — the honest 'he's due' null",
    total_rows: rows.length,
    slot_audit: audit,
    clean_settled_rows_available: clean.length,
    row_loss: loss,
    cumulative_bonferroni: mc,
    gate: 'a factor must MOVE the prediction AND improve out-of-sample Brier; movement alone is THEATER',
    results,
    proven: results.filter((r) => r.verdict === 'PROVES'),
    theater: results.filter((r) => r.verdict === 'THEATER'),
  }, null, 2));
  process.exit(0);
}

main().catch((e) => { console.error(e); process.exit(1); });