My first delta run modelled the incumbent as first-row-wins over the RAW
feed and reported that an EXCLUDED book was "the market" on 69% of MLB
prop-lines, with prizepicks alone at 47%. That is WRONG and I caught it
before it went anywhere.
normalizeProps applies ALLOWED_BOOKS BEFORE gradeSlateService.dedupeProps
runs, so DFS books never reach the incumbent. The allow-list, for all the
coverage it costs, does keep DFS out of the ruler.
incumbentFairProb now takes the allow-list (defaulting to the live
ALLOWED_BOOKS) and reproduces the real chain. Two tests lock it, including
that a prop with no admitted book has NO incumbent -- it is never graded
at all, which is the real loss and is already measured as invisible_props.
Overstating the incumbent's badness would have been as dishonest as
understating it, and more persuasive.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QJs13VsyiSKYQP6rj3NNmc
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