Files
vyndr/supabase/schema/model_snapshots.columns.json
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builtbykev 9809626c99 Retention completion: a cohort is complete only when the writer says N of N
The previous bug made the recorder write nothing. The dangerous successor is a
recorder that writes half and looks healthy: persist() writes in chunks of 250
and STOPS AT THE FIRST FAILED CHUNK, so chunks committed before the failure are
already durable. Rows exist under the snapshot_id, captured_at is uniform, Redis
kept working — and the cohort is short.

So row presence was never completion evidence, and neither was a matching
timestamp. Completeness is now proven by the writer or not at all.

TERMINAL RETENTION STATES (retentionService.classifyPersist):
  NOTHING_TO_PERSIST       attempted 0 — a refusal-only slate is still a cycle
  SKIPPED_NO_DATABASE      no database configured; not a failure
  COMPLETE                 attempted > 0, written === attempted, no error
  FAILED_ZERO_WRITE        written === 0 — first chunk failed
  FAILED_PARTIAL           0 < written < attempted — a later chunk failed
  FAILED_UNRESOLVED_ERROR  counts look complete but an error is unresolved;
                           unreachable through today's loop, and kept because
                           the alternative is reporting COMPLETE holding an error

The invariant: any written < attempted with attempted > 0 is a FAILED cycle. A
partial cohort is never degraded success.

classifyPersist reads the EXACT persist() result and refuses anything else — it
never recomputes attempted or written, because a second calculation could
disagree with the writer and then the status would describe a cycle that did not
happen. persist() itself is byte-identical to 35da190.

`written` counts rows in COMMITTED CHUNKS, not database inserts: the upsert uses
ignoreDuplicates, so a re-run legitimately inserts far fewer rows than it writes.
Comparing written to count(*) will disagree by design. Documented, because that
mismatch is exactly what would be misread as a partial write.

VISIBILITY. The 35da190 alert condition was
`r.error || (!r.skipped && r.attempted > 0 && r.written === 0)` — it could not
see a partial cohort as a distinct state. It is now driven by terminal status,
so FAILED_PARTIAL alerts as loudly as a total failure and is labelled INCOMPLETE
and unusable as evidence. Best-effort is unchanged: the product continues and
the alert says so.

OBSERVABILITY. A successful cycle previously left only a console.log with no
snapshot_id, no code_sha and no terminal status, so completion could not be
established after the fact. `GET /api/internal/snapshot/status` now returns
`last_retention` per sport — sport, snapshot_id, attempted, written, status,
completed_at, code_sha, error_summary — taken verbatim from the persistence
result. Existing internal auth, read-only, counts and status only, no payloads.
No new table, no new route.

RELEASE-AUTHORIZED INSERT CONTRACT. The migration-derived contract is the
release authority; production is not. A prod-only column is DRIFT / RECORDED
DEBT and never becomes permission by existing. Verifier classifies: release
column missing in prod -> HARD FAILURE; prod-only -> drift warning; outbound key
outside the contract -> contract failure (enforced against the real upsert
payload). It is read-only and never rewrites the contract from live schema.
Live: release 64, prod 67, prod-only 3, missing in prod 0.

Six teeth, each with the injection verified present, against a green baseline:
  1 written>0 as generic success        -> 6 fail
  2 later-chunk failure reports COMPLETE -> 5 fail
  3 FAILED_PARTIAL does not alert        -> 3 fail
  4 status reports a recalculated count  -> 1 fail
  5 row presence treated as completion   -> 1 fail
  6 invalid outbound column reintroduced -> 4 fail
Restored byte-identically (retention b341cf16c1baa992, snapshot 81ab1bd7730dee89).

Two stale assertions updated rather than deleted, with the mechanism change
recorded: the alert-shape tests described the superseded written===0 condition,
and the runtime probe test pinned an exact import list.

Model and product preserved: analyzeViaEngine1, probabilityEstimator,
gradeSlateService, lineageCanaryConfig, eventIdentity, ledgerService,
calibration and chain all UNCHANGED; zero lineage/publication files touched;
zero cacheSet changes; zero web paths. Lineage stays OFF.

383 suites / 5,118 tests pass. web tsc exit 0.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01CQJeAG8vcDoL5zkiaJyVb8
2026-08-27 19:12:59 -04:00

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{
"table": "model_snapshots",
"generated_by": "scripts/generate-schema-contract.js",
"derived_from": "supabase/migrations/*.sql applied in order to a disposable postgres:15-alpine",
"note": "Insertable columns only (no generated/identity columns). This is the contract the retention writer must satisfy. Regenerate after any migration that touches model_snapshots; scripts/verify-schema-contract.js detects drift against a live database.",
"known_production_drift": {
"columns_in_production_not_in_migrations": [
"quarantine_reason",
"re_settled_at",
"settlement_source"
],
"explanation": "Present in production but not created by any committed migration - added out of band, same class as the migration-014 debt. The contract deliberately uses the MIGRATION-derived set, which is the stricter of the two: a writer that stays within it is valid against both.",
"classification": "PROD-ONLY COLUMN -> DRIFT WARNING / RECORDED DEBT (not release-authorized)"
},
"column_count": 64,
"columns": [
"actual_value",
"archetype",
"book",
"book_odds",
"canonical_event_id",
"captured_at",
"chain_shadow",
"change_type",
"claim_digest",
"claim_schema_version",
"code_sha",
"confidence",
"confidence_basis",
"created_at",
"cycle_hour_utc",
"devig_method",
"digest_algorithm_version",
"edge_pct",
"ev_pct",
"event_identity_method",
"event_identity_source",
"event_identity_version",
"event_occurrence",
"factor_inputs",
"fair_odds",
"fair_prob",
"features",
"game_date",
"game_id",
"grade",
"grade_11",
"id",
"line",
"lineage_action",
"lineage_state",
"lineage_version",
"model_version",
"opponent",
"outcome",
"over_odds",
"overround",
"p_win",
"player_key",
"player_name",
"projection",
"publication_id",
"published",
"published_at",
"read_id",
"read_natural_key",
"recaptures_id",
"refusal_reason",
"refused",
"revision_ordinal",
"settled_at",
"side",
"snapshot_id",
"sport",
"stat",
"supersedes_id",
"takeable",
"team",
"under_odds",
"value"
],
"authority": "RELEASE-AUTHORIZED model_snapshots INSERT CONTRACT",
"authority_note": "Derived from the migration chain, which is the release authority. Production is not. A column present in production but in no migration is DRIFT / RECORDED DEBT and is NOT release-authorized; it must never be copied into this contract from live schema."
}