builtbykev
1f40014256
routed as date-driven PHASE 0 — threshold derived BLIND, before any stat was re-read. A reversal is informative only if that date's Brier delta is distinguishable from zero at its row count. Per-row Brier difference d_i = (pc-y)^2 - (p-y)^2, so SE(n) = SD(d)/sqrt(n) and n* = (SD(d)/|effect|)^2. Pooled across all four stats so no single stat's verdict could shape the threshold deciding it: pooled rows 3,417 | SD(d) 0.09816 | |effect| 0.01175 n* = (0.09816/0.01175)^2 = 69.8 -> 70 The hand-chosen 20 sat at 0.54 SE -- a coin flip. That is the defect this removes, and why the previous verdict moved with the number. Committed as calibrationRegistry.LODO_MIN_HELD_ROWS = 70 with LODO_THRESHOLD_BASIS; a test recomputes (SD/effect)^2 and asserts it equals the constant, so it cannot drift from its own justification. The derivation script prints no stat verdict, no date and no reversal. PHASE 1 — LODO at n*, applied cold: hits 5 informative drops, 0 reversals PASS total_bases 4 informative drops, 0 reversals PASS rbi reverses 2026-08-01 (n=99) FAIL runs reverses 08-01 (n=86), 08-05 (244) FAIL hits held-out deltas -0.0041/-0.0080/-0.0192/-0.0140/-0.0139 across 123-272 row dates, favourite sign holding on every testable drop. THIS IS THE INSTRUMENT FINALLY POWERED, NOT VINDICATION OF A PREDICTION -- the withdrawal at6ae11f1was correct on the instrument available then, which admitted 20- and 25-row dates as evidence. Nothing about hits changed; the threshold stopped being chosen. PHASE 2 — both failures are DATE-DRIVEN, not underpowered. Every reversal sits above n*=70 (99, 86, 244), so no threshold and no further accrual rescues either: isotonic is fitting day-structure. Routed to the low-parameter calibrator queue (Platt/beta), not built here. PHASE 3 — CALIBRATION_DEPLOYED is now ['hits','total_bases'], frozen and tested, both PROVISIONAL with auto-demotion armed and the >=40 date-cluster promotion bar unchanged. hits stackability for chain.chainAcross is RESTORED, and the record shows it returned through the powered gate rather than by fiat. hits bands rebuilt on p_win_calibrated (765 eval rows): every archetype still one band, still base_rate -- calibrated YES, proven-per-archetype NO. PHASE 4 logged: the deploy set is now set by a power-derived, pre-committed, tested constant rather than an operator-chosen number. At6ae11f1that rule moved the live path AGAINST the operator; it has now moved it back on the same evidence because the instrument changed. Both directions are the rule working. And calibrated p_win separates within archetype no better than raw across 13 archetype slots on two deployed stats -- per-archetype separation will come from proven factors or not at all. p_win never mutated; no Bonferroni slot consumed; counter and frozen clusters verified byte-identical file by file. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01W1sivYNqY2TS5ftykmHBU9
44 lines
2.0 KiB
JavaScript
44 lines
2.0 KiB
JavaScript
'use strict';
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/**
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* Which stats serve a calibrated number in the live pipeline.
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*
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* The rule this locks: a stat that cannot survive dropping a single settled date
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* was never calibrated — it was fitted to that date. hits WAS served calibrated
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* and is not any more, which is the honest consequence of measuring it.
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*/
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const snapshotService = require('../../src/services/snapshotService');
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describe('the deployed set is LODO-gated', () => {
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it('serves the stats that passed LODO at the powered threshold', () => {
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expect(snapshotService.CALIBRATION_DEPLOYED).toContain('total_bases');
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// hits was withdrawn at 6ae11f1 under a hand-chosen threshold that admitted
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// 20-row dates as evidence, and is restored here because the powered
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// instrument finds no reversal. Through the gate, not around it.
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expect(snapshotService.CALIBRATION_DEPLOYED).toContain('hits');
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});
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it('does NOT serve rbi or runs — both fail on dates ABOVE the threshold', () => {
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// These are DATE-DRIVEN failures, not underpowered ones: rbi reverses on a
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// 99-row date and runs on 86- and 244-row dates. No threshold rescues them.
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for (const stat of ['rbi', 'runs']) {
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expect(snapshotService.CALIBRATION_DEPLOYED).not.toContain(stat);
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}
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});
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it('every deployed stat cleared the power-derived threshold, not a chosen one', () => {
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const { LODO_MIN_HELD_ROWS, LODO_THRESHOLD_BASIS } = require('../../src/services/model/calibrationRegistry');
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expect(LODO_MIN_HELD_ROWS).toBe(70);
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expect(LODO_THRESHOLD_BASIS.derived_blind).toBe(true);
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// The reversing dates that keep rbi/runs out are all at or above it, so
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// their exclusion cannot be an artefact of the threshold.
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for (const n of [99, 86, 244]) expect(n).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(LODO_MIN_HELD_ROWS);
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});
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it('is frozen, so a stat cannot be added at runtime without a code change', () => {
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expect(Object.isFrozen(snapshotService.CALIBRATION_DEPLOYED)).toBe(true);
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expect(() => { snapshotService.CALIBRATION_DEPLOYED.push('hits'); }).toThrow();
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});
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});
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