builtbykev
d242b11b4b
PROMISE-AUDIT.md: every /pricing claim → verified/built/reworded. BUILT (was vapor): alt line ladder + edge ranking (same-features regrade at shifted lines, Desk-gated at the API), quarter-Kelly (engine quantile P(win) x real captured odds — either missing → no sizing), free-tier kill-condition locked previews. FIXED (was false): analyst 15/day cap vs the Founder 'Unlimited reads' promise → analyst unlimited; every '40+ factors' claim (real count: 22 named features) reworded truthfully in 7 files. VERIFIED: cascade alerts (real, wired), phi correlation, leg history, cross-book comparison, WC soccer, real-time feed. Locked by tests/unit/promiseAudit.test.js. Jest now ignores .claude/worktrees (parallel agents' suites no longer leak into runs). Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
42 lines
1.4 KiB
JavaScript
42 lines
1.4 KiB
JavaScript
'use strict';
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/**
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* Quarter-Kelly sizing (Session 62 / A1-S1 — the pricing page promised it;
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* now it exists). Pure math, no I/O.
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*
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* DATA SEMANTICS: Kelly needs a REAL win probability and REAL book odds.
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* p comes from the engine's quantile probability estimator (game-log based);
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* odds come from the captured book row. Either missing → null — a sizing
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* recommendation is never fabricated from confidence scores or defaults.
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*/
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function americanToDecimal(american) {
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const a = Number(american);
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if (!Number.isFinite(a) || a === 0) return null;
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return a > 0 ? 1 + a / 100 : 1 + 100 / Math.abs(a);
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}
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/**
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* quarterKelly(p, americanOdds) →
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* { full, quarter, pct } — fractions of bankroll (pct = quarter × 100,
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* rounded to 0.1) — or null when p/odds are unusable or the edge is
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* non-positive (Kelly says: no bet).
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*/
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function quarterKelly(p, americanOdds) {
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const prob = Number(p);
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if (!Number.isFinite(prob) || prob <= 0 || prob >= 1) return null;
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const dec = americanToDecimal(americanOdds);
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if (dec == null || dec <= 1) return null;
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const b = dec - 1;
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const full = (b * prob - (1 - prob)) / b;
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if (!Number.isFinite(full) || full <= 0) return null;
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const quarter = full / 4;
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return {
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full: Math.round(full * 1000) / 1000,
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quarter: Math.round(quarter * 1000) / 1000,
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pct: Math.round(quarter * 1000) / 10, // % of bankroll at quarter-Kelly
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};
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}
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module.exports = { quarterKelly, americanToDecimal };
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