048e4eaa3f
One player prop in Game 1 and the same-looking prop in Game 2 are two different
historical claims. The retention conflict identity did not know that.
SEMANTIC IDENTITY FIRST. Two outbound rows are the same retention proposition
within one cycle when they share the cycle, the EVENT, the participant, the
stat, the line and the side. Book is deliberately absent — collapsing books is
dedupeProps's actual job and the price anchor is chosen later. The database
index is enforcement of that answer, never the definition of it.
THE EVENT COMPONENT NEVER FABRICATES. canonical_event_id where a sport has a
resolver — MLB's admission gate rejects unresolved/ambiguous/contradicted props
BEFORE grading, so every row that can reach retention has one — and game_id
otherwise, which is NOT NULL in the schema and is the only event label sports
without a resolver possess. Both are in the identity, so the weaker label still
discriminates where the stronger is absent.
NULLS NOT DISTINCT IS LOAD-BEARING, NOT STYLISTIC. canonical_event_id is NULL
for every non-MLB row. Measured on a disposable PG17: under PostgreSQL's default
semantics the same NBA proposition inserted twice produced TWO rows — every
retry duplicating for ever. With NULLS NOT DISTINCT the same test yields one.
That measurement is what rejected the plain composite option.
MIXED-FLEET BRIDGE. A rollout serves both builds at once (measured 11/12 new,
1 old). Old and new writers need different indexes and NO schema state satisfies
both: with the legacy index present a new writer fails 23505 on a doubleheader;
with it gone an old writer fails 42P10. A bare ON CONFLICT DO NOTHING would have
bridged this, and PostgREST does not emit one — `ignoreDuplicates` WITHOUT
`onConflict` was measured raising a real duplicate-key error, so that bridge does
not exist through this client.
So the writer bridges it. It targets the event-aware identity and, on exactly
the two errors meaning "the schema is not in the state I expect" (42P10, or
23505 NAMING the legacy index), retries the SAME chunk on the legacy target. A
failed chunk rolls back atomically — measured 0 rows — so the retry cannot
double-write. Correct in every schema state: legacy-only and both-present
degrade to legacy semantics with no outage; new-only keeps both games.
The bridge is deliberately narrow. A supersedes conflict is ALSO a 23505, and
swallowing it would destroy the forked-history guard, so the legacy index must
be named. All three model_snapshots writers (persist, commitPublication,
recoverFromFork) go through it; no hardcoded legacy target survives.
MEASURED, through the real supabase-js -> PostgREST -> Postgres path on
production-shaped PG17:
* 1,000 REAL propositions from the verified 2026-08-17 STL@CIN doubleheader
(1,738 retained rows under ONE game_id), replayed across both real gamePks:
OLD index materialized 1,000 of 2,000 — 1,000 LOST. NEW index materialized
2,000 of 2,000 — 0 lost.
* retry idempotency, over/under, line, stat, player, non-MLB same-game and
non-MLB different-game all behave correctly under the new index.
* ORDINARY-SLATE PARITY over ALL 434 real cohorts / 328,262 retained rows:
old identities 328,262, new identities 328,262, delta 0, cohorts changed 0.
The index is therefore guaranteed creatable and nothing historical splits.
CONFLICT_IDENTITY is now DERIVED from RETENTION_CONFLICT rather than restated —
a test caught them silently disagreeing, which is exactly how the materialization
check could have expected an identity the database no longer enforced.
EXPAND/CONTRACT are separate files on purpose. 048 is additive and retires
nothing; 049 drops the legacy index and must not be applied until fleet
convergence is proven by sampling, never assumed from a fast rollout.
NO BACKFILL. Legacy rows keep NULL canonical_event_id and remain LEGACY
EVENT-AGNOSTIC RETENTION, which is what that NULL truthfully says.
The materialization defence is untouched and now reports the bridge honestly:
while the legacy index still collapses a doubleheader, expected 4 vs actual 2
yields MATERIALIZATION_MISSING and the cohort is refused.
Nine teeth, injections verified present, against a green baseline of 97:
1 event distinction removed (10) · 2 phases collapsed (2) · 3 bridge swallows
everything (6) · 4 NULLS NOT DISTINCT removed (1) · 5 old-container error as
success (3) · 6 semantic/DB identity disagree (8) · 7 collision detector removed
(2) · 8 partial transport usable (3) · 9 collision unannounced (1).
Restored byte-identically.
Model and product untouched: gradeSlateService (event-aware dedupe), event
identity, ledger, calibration, chain, lineage config and the status route all
UNCHANGED. Zero cacheSet changes, zero web paths, schema contract unchanged (no
new columns). Lineage stays OFF.
385 suites / 5,178 tests pass. web tsc exit 0.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01CQJeAG8vcDoL5zkiaJyVb8
265 lines
12 KiB
JavaScript
265 lines
12 KiB
JavaScript
'use strict';
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/**
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* SEMANTIC RETENTION PROPOSITION IDENTITY, and the database enforcement of it.
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*
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* The semantic question comes FIRST: when are two outbound rows the same
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* retention proposition within one cycle? Answer — same cycle, same EVENT, same
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* participant, same stat, same line, same side. Provider/book is deliberately
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* absent: collapsing books is `dedupeProps`'s job and the price anchor is
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* chosen later.
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*
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* The database index is ENFORCEMENT of that answer, never the definition of it.
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* `model_snapshots_cycle_prop_uniq` carried no event component, so a real MLB
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* doubleheader collapsed to one identity — verified on production: 2026-08-17
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* St. Louis @ Cincinnati holds 1,738 retained rows under a single game_id, and
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* replaying 1,000 real propositions across both real gamePks materialized 1,000
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* of 2,000 rows under the old index and 2,000 of 2,000 under the new one.
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*/
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const fs = require('fs');
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const path = require('path');
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const retention = require('../../src/services/retentionService');
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const ROOT = path.resolve(__dirname, '..', '..');
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const SNAP = '11111111-1111-1111-1111-111111111111';
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const G1 = 'mlb:gamepk:824514';
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const G2 = 'mlb:gamepk:824478';
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const row = (o = {}) => ({
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snapshot_id: SNAP, game_id: 'mlb:2026-08-17:St.LouisCardinals@CincinnatiReds',
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canonical_event_id: G1, player_key: 'nolan arenado', stat: 'hits', line: 0.5,
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side: 'over', sport: 'mlb', ...o,
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});
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describe('SEMANTIC IDENTITY — the contract, stated before the schema', () => {
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test('the conflict target names cycle, event, participant, stat, line, side', () => {
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expect(retention.RETENTION_CONFLICT.split(',')).toEqual(
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['snapshot_id', 'game_id', 'canonical_event_id', 'player_key', 'stat', 'line', 'side']);
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});
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test('BOOK is deliberately NOT part of identity', () => {
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expect(retention.RETENTION_CONFLICT).not.toMatch(/book/);
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// …and that is upstream's documented job, not an oversight.
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const gs = fs.readFileSync(path.join(ROOT, 'src/services/gradeSlateService.js'), 'utf8');
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expect(gs).toMatch(/Provider is collapsed on\s+\* purpose/);
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});
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test('SAME proposition -> same identity', () => {
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expect(retention.rowIdentity(row())).toBe(retention.rowIdentity(row()));
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});
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test('DIFFERENT EVENT -> DISTINCT (the doubleheader)', () => {
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expect(retention.rowIdentity(row({ canonical_event_id: G1 })))
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.not.toBe(retention.rowIdentity(row({ canonical_event_id: G2 })));
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});
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for (const [what, patch] of [
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['LINE', { line: 1.5 }],
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['SIDE', { side: 'under' }],
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['STAT', { stat: 'total_bases' }],
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['PARTICIPANT', { player_key: 'paul goldschmidt' }],
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['CYCLE', { snapshot_id: '22222222-2222-2222-2222-222222222222' }],
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['GAME (no canonical)', { canonical_event_id: null, game_id: 'nba:2026-08-27:LAL@NYK' }],
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]) {
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test(`DIFFERENT ${what} -> DISTINCT`, () => {
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expect(retention.rowIdentity(row())).not.toBe(retention.rowIdentity(row(patch)));
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});
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}
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});
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describe('SEMANTIC IDENTITY <=> DATABASE CONFLICT IDENTITY', () => {
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test('the JS identity uses EXACTLY the columns the DB conflict target names', () => {
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expect(retention.CONFLICT_IDENTITY).toEqual(retention.RETENTION_CONFLICT.split(','));
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});
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test('the migration creates an index on exactly those columns', () => {
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const sql = fs.readFileSync(path.join(ROOT,
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'supabase/migrations/048_retention_event_aware_identity_expand.sql'), 'utf8');
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const stmt = sql.slice(sql.indexOf('create unique index'));
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const cols = stmt.slice(stmt.indexOf('(snapshot_id'), stmt.indexOf('nulls not distinct'))
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.replace(/[()\s]/g, '');
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expect(cols.replace(/,$/, '')).toBe(retention.RETENTION_CONFLICT);
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});
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test('NULLS NOT DISTINCT is present, and it is load-bearing', () => {
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// canonical_event_id is NULL for every non-MLB row. Under PostgreSQL's
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// DEFAULT semantics two NULLs are DISTINCT, so the same NBA proposition
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// would insert again on every retry — measured: 2 rows. NULLS NOT DISTINCT
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// makes it 1.
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const sql = fs.readFileSync(path.join(ROOT,
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'supabase/migrations/048_retention_event_aware_identity_expand.sql'), 'utf8');
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expect(sql).toMatch(/nulls not distinct/i);
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});
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});
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describe('CANONICAL EVENT AVAILABILITY BY ROW CLASS', () => {
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const gs = fs.readFileSync(path.join(ROOT, 'src/services/gradeSlateService.js'), 'utf8');
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test('MLB: only RESOLVED rows WITH a canonical id are admitted', () => {
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expect(gs).toMatch(/status === 'RESOLVED' && p\.canonical_event_id/);
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});
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test('UNRESOLVED / AMBIGUOUS / CONTRADICTED never reach retention at all', () => {
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// They are rejected BEFORE grading, and onGraded is what feeds retention.
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expect(gs).toMatch(/const gate = admitForGrading\(props, sport\)/);
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expect(gs).toMatch(/dedupeProps\(gate\.admitted, limit\)/);
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expect(gs).not.toMatch(/dedupeProps\(gate\.rejected/);
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});
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test('a sport with no resolver is admitted unchanged — canonical stays NULL', () => {
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expect(gs).toMatch(/!status \|\| status === 'UNSUPPORTED'/);
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});
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test('game_id is the always-present fallback, so identity is never NULL-only', () => {
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// NOT NULL in the schema; measured 0 nulls / 0 empties across 328,262 rows.
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const contract = JSON.parse(fs.readFileSync(path.join(ROOT,
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'supabase/schema/model_snapshots.columns.json'), 'utf8'));
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expect(contract.columns).toContain('game_id');
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expect(retention.RETENTION_CONFLICT).toMatch(/game_id/);
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});
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});
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describe('MIXED-FLEET BRIDGE', () => {
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const err = (code, message) => ({ code, message });
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test('a missing new index (pre-EXPAND) is bridged', () => {
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expect(retention.isLegacyConflictBlock(
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err('42P10', 'there is no unique or exclusion constraint matching the ON CONFLICT specification'))).toBe(true);
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});
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test('the LEGACY index rejecting a doubleheader row is bridged', () => {
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expect(retention.isLegacyConflictBlock(
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err('23505', 'duplicate key value violates unique constraint "model_snapshots_cycle_prop_uniq"'))).toBe(true);
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});
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test('a SUPERSEDES conflict is NOT bridged — the fork guard must still fire', () => {
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// Also a 23505. Swallowing it would destroy the forked-history guard, which
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// is why the bridge requires the legacy index to be NAMED.
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expect(retention.isLegacyConflictBlock(
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err('23505', 'duplicate key value violates unique constraint "model_snapshots_supersedes_unique"'))).toBe(false);
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});
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test('unrelated errors are never bridged', () => {
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expect(retention.isLegacyConflictBlock(err('23502', 'null value in column "captured_at"'))).toBe(false);
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expect(retention.isLegacyConflictBlock(err('PGRST204', "Could not find the 'x' column"))).toBe(false);
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expect(retention.isLegacyConflictBlock(null)).toBe(false);
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});
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test('it targets the event-aware identity FIRST', async () => {
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const seen = [];
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const sb = { from: () => ({ upsert: async (rows, o) => { seen.push(o.onConflict); return { error: null }; } }) };
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const res = await retention.upsertSnapshotChunk(sb, [row()], { ignoreDuplicates: true });
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expect(seen).toEqual([retention.RETENTION_CONFLICT]);
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expect(res.fellBack).toBe(false);
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});
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test('it retries the SAME chunk on the legacy target when bridged', async () => {
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const seen = [];
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const sb = {
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from: () => ({
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upsert: async (rows, o) => {
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seen.push({ target: o.onConflict, n: rows.length });
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return seen.length === 1
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? { error: err('23505', 'duplicate key value violates unique constraint "model_snapshots_cycle_prop_uniq"') }
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: { error: null };
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},
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}),
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};
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const chunk = [row({ canonical_event_id: G1 }), row({ canonical_event_id: G2 })];
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const res = await retention.upsertSnapshotChunk(sb, chunk, { ignoreDuplicates: true });
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expect(seen.map((s) => s.target)).toEqual([retention.RETENTION_CONFLICT, retention.LEGACY_CONFLICT]);
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expect(seen[1].n).toBe(chunk.length); // the SAME chunk, whole
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expect(res.error).toBeNull();
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expect(res.fellBack).toBe(true);
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});
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test('a non-bridgeable error is returned, never retried', async () => {
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const seen = [];
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const sb = { from: () => ({ upsert: async (r, o) => { seen.push(o.onConflict); return { error: err('23502', 'null value') }; } }) };
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const res = await retention.upsertSnapshotChunk(sb, [row()], {});
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expect(seen).toHaveLength(1);
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expect(res.error.code).toBe('23502');
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expect(res.fellBack).toBe(false);
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});
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test('persist reports when the bridge fired — it is a bridge, not a resting place', async () => {
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let first = true;
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const sb = {
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from: () => ({
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upsert: async () => (first
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? (first = false, { error: err('23505', 'duplicate key value violates unique constraint "model_snapshots_cycle_prop_uniq"') })
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: { error: null }),
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}),
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};
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const out = await retention.persist([row()], { getClient: () => sb });
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expect(out.legacy_conflict_fallback).toBe(true);
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expect(out.written).toBe(1);
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});
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test('EVERY model_snapshots write goes through the bridge', () => {
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const src = fs.readFileSync(path.join(ROOT, 'src/services/retentionService.js'), 'utf8')
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.replace(/\/\*[\s\S]*?\*\//g, '').replace(/(^|[^:])\/\/.*$/gm, '$1');
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// No hardcoded legacy target may survive outside the constant itself.
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const hard = src.match(/onConflict: 'snapshot_id,player_key,stat,line,side'/g) || [];
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expect(hard).toHaveLength(0);
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const upserts = src.match(/\.upsert\(/g) || [];
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const bridged = src.match(/upsertSnapshotChunk\(/g) || [];
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// One .upsert lives inside the bridge helper (two calls: primary + fallback).
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expect(upserts.length).toBe(2);
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expect(bridged.length).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(4); // definition + 3 call sites
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});
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});
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describe('MIGRATION SAFETY', () => {
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const expand = fs.readFileSync(path.join(ROOT,
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'supabase/migrations/048_retention_event_aware_identity_expand.sql'), 'utf8');
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const contract = fs.readFileSync(path.join(ROOT,
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'supabase/migrations/049_retention_event_aware_identity_contract.sql'), 'utf8');
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test('EXPAND is additive and idempotent, and retires nothing', () => {
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expect(expand).toMatch(/create unique index if not exists/i);
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expect(expand).not.toMatch(/drop\s+index/i);
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expect(expand).not.toMatch(/alter table/i);
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});
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test('EXPAND performs no backfill', () => {
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expect(expand).not.toMatch(/\bupdate\b/i);
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expect(expand).not.toMatch(/\binsert\b/i);
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});
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test('CONTRACT only drops the legacy index, and documents its rollback', () => {
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expect(contract).toMatch(/drop index if exists public\.model_snapshots_cycle_prop_uniq/i);
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expect(contract).not.toMatch(/\bupdate\b/i);
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expect(contract).toMatch(/ROLLBACK/);
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expect(contract).toMatch(/APPLY THIS ONLY AFTER FLEET CONVERGENCE IS PROVEN/);
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});
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test('the two phases are separate files — they must not land together', () => {
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expect(expand).not.toMatch(/drop index if exists public\.model_snapshots_cycle_prop_uniq/i);
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});
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});
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describe('MATERIALIZATION DEFENCE SURVIVES THE REPAIR', () => {
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test('the collision detector is still wired and still disqualifies a cohort', () => {
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const rows = [row({ canonical_event_id: G1 }), row({ canonical_event_id: G2 })];
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// Under the NEW identity these are two propositions, so no collision.
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const exp = retention.expectedMaterialization(rows);
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expect(exp.expected_identities).toBe(2);
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expect(exp.collision_count).toBe(0);
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// And a genuine duplicate still collides.
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const dup = retention.expectedMaterialization([row(), row()]);
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expect(dup.collision_count).toBe(1);
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expect(retention.reconcileMaterialization({
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expected: dup, actualIdentities: dup.identities, transportStatus: retention.TERMINAL.COMPLETE,
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}).status).toBe(retention.MATERIALIZATION.COLLISION);
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});
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test('transport vs materialization, and per-sport evidence, are intact', () => {
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expect(typeof retention.classifyPersist).toBe('function');
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expect(typeof retention.reconcileMaterialization).toBe('function');
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expect(typeof retention.lastRetention).toBe('function');
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expect(retention.TERMINAL.FAILED_PARTIAL).toBeTruthy();
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});
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});
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