Nothing proved. For RBI even the ARCHETYPE split is theatre, so the honest
grade is the POOLED base rate.
PREMISE NOTE: the order's closing line says the batter board is
per-archetype-graded after this. Nothing has been rescaled for hits or
total_bases either -- no archetype slot has ever reached sample and
gradeBands remains built, gated and unwired. This is the fourth stat
measured, not the completion of three.
AUDIT: RBI 935 clean / 43 games; RUNS 617 clean / 33 games. Zero
quarantined. No archetype slot reaches 500 -- and the signature
archetypes the order names are the two SMALLEST slots on the board,
RBI->DRIVER at n=24 and runs->CATALYST at n=9. RUNS is refused
structurally before any factor is tested: 33 game clusters against a 40
floor.
INPUTS RECONSTRUCTED rather than declared missing. lineup_context only
covers 08-04 onward while settled rows start 07-31, so 187/617 runs rows
joined. But the play-by-play cache runs from 05-01 and the batting order
IS the order batters first appear -- slot, power-behind and reach-base
all rebuilt point-in-time, coverage 187 -> 574.
RBI, all THEATER: risp_opportunity +0.0047, extra_base_skill +0.0010,
risp x extra_base +0.0056. RUNS, all refused on clusters and all pointing
the wrong way: +0.0043 / +0.0008 / +0.0054.
THE COMPOUND IS THE WORST VERSION IN BOTH STATS. The causally-correct
compound was the most promising factor on the sheet and is the most
harmful in each. Two multipliers that individually carry nothing do not
cancel -- they compound each other's noise. Distinct from the
collapsed-sequence lesson: there the product of two REAL effects was too
small to use; here the product of two NULL effects is worse than either.
THE ARCHETYPE DOES NOT RESCUE IT, and this is where the session nearly
went wrong. The base rates look strongly differentiated (RBI DRIVER 0.609
vs BOMBER 0.413; runs GHOST 0.716 vs BOMBER 0.460). Gated directly
against the pooled base rate: RBI +0.0010 CI [-0.0034,+0.0050] THEATER;
runs -0.0028 CI [-0.0147,+0.0108] candidate at k=33. DRIVER's 0.609 is
n=23 -- small-slot noise wearing a decimal point. Read off the table
instead of gated, this would have shipped as "archetype differentiation
is real and large". It is not.
THE CROSS-STAT PATTERN THAT IS REAL -- the counter over-predicts every
batter counting stat measured:
total_bases p_win 0.5698 vs actual 0.5074 bias +0.0624
rbi p_win 0.4860 vs actual 0.4313 bias +0.0547
runs p_win 0.5949 vs actual 0.5749 bias +0.0200
Across four stats and three sessions, calibration is the systematic
defect and factor scarcity is not. TB's held-out isotonic fix (-0.0039)
still outperforms every factor tried on any stat, all null or theatre.
NO RESCALE. Nothing proved, nothing certified calibrated, no slot at
sample, and for RBI the archetype split is itself theatre -- so the
honest band is the pooled base rate, which gradeBands returns by
construction.
Counter and frozen clusters byte-identical.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01W1sivYNqY2TS5ftykmHBU9
builtbykev
23d1b13176