vyndr/tests/unit/ledgerService.test.js

// Session 58 (Phase 1) — ledgerService: the truth infrastructure.
// Everything runs against a fake Supabase client — zero network, zero env.

const ledger = require('../../src/services/ledgerService');
const { rowsFromSnapshot, computeClv, clvResultOf } = ledger.__internals;

// ---- fake Supabase client ------------------------------------------------
// Minimal chainable stub for the exact query shapes ledgerService uses.
function fakeSb() {
  const calls = { upserts: [], updates: [] };
  const state = { selectResults: [], selectCursor: 0, countResult: 0 };

  function builder() {
    const b = {
      _update: null,
      upsert(rows, opts) {
        calls.upserts.push({ rows, opts });
        return Promise.resolve({ error: null });
      },
      update(values) { b._update = values; return b; },
      select() { return b; },
      eq() { return b; },
      is() { return b; },
      not() { return b; },
      lt() { return b; },
      gte() { return b; },
      gt() { return b; },
      in(col, ids) {
        if (b._update) {
          calls.updates.push({ values: b._update, ids });
          return Promise.resolve({ error: null });
        }
        return terminal();
      },
      order() { return b; },
      limit() { return terminal(); },
      then(resolve, reject) { return terminal().then(resolve, reject); },
    };
    function terminal() {
      if (b._update) {
        calls.updates.push({ values: b._update });
        return Promise.resolve({ error: null });
      }
      const data = state.selectResults[state.selectCursor] ?? [];
      state.selectCursor += 1;
      return Promise.resolve({ data, error: null, count: state.countResult });
    }
    return b;
  }

  return { from: () => builder(), _calls: calls, _state: state };
}

// ---- fixtures --------------------------------------------------------------
const NOW = '2026-07-10T18:00:00.000Z';
const GRADE = {
  player: 'Aaron Judge', player_name: 'Aaron Judge', stat_type: 'home_runs',
  line: 0.5, direction: 'over', grade: 'A', confidence: 78, edge_pct: 12.4,
  projection: 0.9,
  gradedAt: { line: 0.5, odds: -115, timestamp: NOW },
};
const PROP = {
  player: 'Aaron Judge', stat_type: 'home_runs', line: 0.5,
  home_team: 'NYY', away_team: 'BOS', game_time: '2026-07-10T23:05:00Z',
  book: 'draftkings', over_odds: -115, under_odds: -105,
};

describe('rowsFromSnapshot — the write shape', () => {
  test('builds a public row with REAL captured market values', () => {
    const rows = rowsFromSnapshot('mlb', [GRADE], [PROP], NOW);
    expect(rows).toHaveLength(1);
    const r = rows[0];
    expect(r.user_id).toBeNull();
    expect(r.player_key).toBe('aaron judge');
    expect(r.line).toBe(0.5);              // the locked book line
    expect(r.locked_odds).toBe('-115');    // real odds at grade time
    expect(r.book).toBe('draftkings');
    expect(r.model_value).toBe(0.9);       // MODEL output, distinct from line
    expect(r.game_date).toBe('2026-07-10'); // 23:05Z = 19:05 ET same day
    expect(r.game_id).toBe('mlb:2026-07-10:BOS@NYY');
  });

  // Session 59 — team/opponent addendum (migration 020).
  test('captures team + opponent from the real feed (full-name MLB teams)', () => {
    const grade = { ...GRADE, team: 'New York Yankees' };
    const prop = { ...PROP, home_team: 'New York Yankees', away_team: 'Boston Red Sox' };
    const [r] = rowsFromSnapshot('mlb', [grade], [prop], NOW);
    expect(r.team).toBe('New York Yankees');
    expect(r.opponent).toBe('Boston Red Sox');
  });

  test('opponent is NEVER guessed: team not in the game → opponent null', () => {
    const grade = { ...GRADE, team: 'Tampa Bay Rays' };
    const prop = { ...PROP, home_team: 'Milwaukee Brewers', away_team: 'Pittsburgh Pirates' };
    const [r] = rowsFromSnapshot('mlb', [grade], [prop], NOW);
    expect(r.team).toBe('Tampa Bay Rays');
    expect(r.opponent).toBeNull();
  });

  test('no team from the stats resolve → both null (absent beats wrong)', () => {
    const [r] = rowsFromSnapshot('mlb', [GRADE], [PROP], NOW);
    expect(r.team).toBeNull();
    expect(r.opponent).toBeNull();
  });

  test('refused reads and grade-less entries never become rows', () => {
    const refused = { ...GRADE, grade: null, insufficient_data: true };
    const gradeless = { ...GRADE, grade: undefined };
    expect(rowsFromSnapshot('mlb', [refused, gradeless], [PROP], NOW)).toEqual([]);
  });

  test('a grade with no captured line is dropped — never a fabricated line', () => {
    const noLine = { ...GRADE, line: undefined, gradedAt: { line: null, odds: null, timestamp: NOW } };
    expect(rowsFromSnapshot('mlb', [noLine], [PROP], NOW)).toEqual([]);
  });
});

describe('recordPipelineGrades — idempotent upsert', () => {
  test('upserts with ignoreDuplicates on the dedupe constraint', async () => {
    const sb = fakeSb();
    const res = await ledger.recordPipelineGrades('mlb', [GRADE], [PROP], { sb, now: () => NOW });
    expect(res.written).toBe(1);
    expect(sb._calls.upserts).toHaveLength(1);
    const { opts } = sb._calls.upserts[0];
    expect(opts.onConflict).toBe('user_id,player_key,stat,line,side,game_id');
    expect(opts.ignoreDuplicates).toBe(true); // re-runs never overwrite the lock
  });

  test('no-ops without supabase env when no client injected', async () => {
    const res = await ledger.recordPipelineGrades('mlb', [GRADE], [PROP], {});
    expect(res.skipped).toBeTruthy();
  });
});

describe('computeClv — signed by side (Phase 1 amendment)', () => {
  test('OVER: closing below the locked line = positive = beat', () => {
    expect(computeClv('over', 1.5, 1.0)).toBe(0.5);
    expect(clvResultOf(computeClv('over', 1.5, 1.0))).toBe('beat');
  });
  test('OVER: closing above the locked line = negative = faded', () => {
    expect(computeClv('over', 1.5, 2.0)).toBe(-0.5);
    expect(clvResultOf(computeClv('over', 1.5, 2.0))).toBe('faded');
  });
  test('UNDER: inverse signs', () => {
    expect(computeClv('under', 1.5, 2.0)).toBe(0.5);   // market rose toward the under
    expect(clvResultOf(computeClv('under', 1.5, 2.0))).toBe('beat');
    expect(computeClv('under', 1.5, 1.0)).toBe(-0.5);
    expect(clvResultOf(computeClv('under', 1.5, 1.0))).toBe('faded');
  });
  test('unchanged line = flat; missing closing = null (absent, not zero)', () => {
    expect(clvResultOf(computeClv('over', 1.5, 1.5))).toBe('flat');
    expect(computeClv('over', 1.5, null)).toBeNull();
    expect(clvResultOf(null)).toBeNull();
  });
});

describe('settleLedger — outcome + CLV vs the real result', () => {
  test('settles hit/miss/push from the game log and stamps CLV', async () => {
    const sb = fakeSb();
    // 1st select: open ids; 2nd: full rows.
    sb._state.selectResults = [
      [{ id: 'r1' }, { id: 'r2' }],
      [
        { id: 'r1', player_name: 'Aaron Judge', stat: 'home_runs', line: 0.5, side: 'over', closing_line: 0.5, game_date: '2026-07-09' },
        { id: 'r2', player_name: 'Aaron Judge', stat: 'hits', line: 1.5, side: 'over', closing_line: 2.5, game_date: '2026-07-09' },
      ],
    ];
    const getPlayerStats = async () => ({
      found: true,
      last10: [{ date: '2026-07-09', stat: { homeRuns: 1, hits: 1 } }],
    });
    const res = await ledger.settleLedger('mlb', { sb, getPlayerStats, now: () => NOW, beforeDate: '2026-07-10' });
    expect(res.settled).toBe(2);
    const byOutcome = sb._calls.updates.map((u) => u.values);
    expect(byOutcome[0]).toMatchObject({ outcome: 'hit', actual_value: 1, clv: 0, clv_result: 'flat' });
    // 1 hit vs o1.5 = miss; locked 1.5 closed 2.5 for an over = faded.
    expect(byOutcome[1]).toMatchObject({ outcome: 'miss', actual_value: 1, clv: -1, clv_result: 'faded' });
  });

  // Session 64 — BEHAVIOUR CHANGED ON PURPOSE. A missing game-log row used to
  // mean "pending forever". It now depends on what the day's games actually did.
  test('no row + game FINAL → NOT voided (date may be wrong); attempts bump', async () => {
    const sb = fakeSb();
    sb._state.selectResults = [
      [{ id: 'r1' }],
      [{ id: 'r1', player_name: 'Aaron Judge', stat: 'home_runs', line: 0.5, side: 'over', closing_line: null, game_date: '2026-07-09' }],
    ];
    const getPlayerStats = async () => ({ found: true, last10: [{ date: '2026-07-08', stat: { homeRuns: 2 } }] });
    const res = await ledger.settleLedger('mlb', {
      sb, getPlayerStats, now: () => NOW, beforeDate: '2026-07-10',
      getSchedule: async () => [{ status: 'Final' }],
    });
    expect(res.voided).toBe(0);
    expect(res.settled).toBe(0);
    expect(res.pending).toBe(1);
    expect(sb._calls.updates[0].values.outcome).toBeUndefined();
  });

  test('no row + game NOT FINAL → stays pending, never voided', async () => {
    const sb = fakeSb();
    sb._state.selectResults = [
      [{ id: 'r1' }],
      [{ id: 'r1', player_name: 'Aaron Judge', stat: 'home_runs', line: 0.5, side: 'over', closing_line: null, game_date: '2026-07-09' }],
    ];
    const getPlayerStats = async () => ({ found: true, last10: [{ date: '2026-07-08', stat: { homeRuns: 2 } }] });
    const res = await ledger.settleLedger('mlb', {
      sb, getPlayerStats, now: () => NOW, beforeDate: '2026-07-10',
      getSchedule: async () => [{ status: 'Suspended' }],
    });
    expect(res.pending).toBe(1);
    expect(res.voided).toBe(0);
    // only the attempt counter is touched — no outcome written
    expect(sb._calls.updates[0].values).toMatchObject({ settle_attempts: 1 });
    expect(sb._calls.updates[0].values.outcome).toBeUndefined();
  });

  test('undetermined state becomes UNRECOVERABLE at the retry cap', async () => {
    const sb = fakeSb();
    sb._state.selectResults = [
      [{ id: 'r1' }],
      [{ id: 'r1', player_name: 'Aaron Judge', stat: 'home_runs', line: 0.5, side: 'over', closing_line: null, game_date: '2026-07-09', settle_attempts: 3 }],
    ];
    const getPlayerStats = async () => ({ found: true, last10: [] });
    const res = await ledger.settleLedger('mlb', {
      sb, getPlayerStats, now: () => NOW, beforeDate: '2026-07-10',
      getSchedule: async () => [{ status: 'Final' }],   // player absent, unconfirmed
    });
    expect(res.unrecoverable).toBe(1);
    expect(sb._calls.updates[0].values).toMatchObject({ outcome: 'unrecoverable' });
  });
});

describe('captureClosing — real feed values only', () => {
  test('updates open rows from the current odds; unmatched rows untouched', async () => {
    const sb = fakeSb();
    sb._state.selectResults = [[
      { id: 'r1', player_key: 'aaron judge', stat: 'home_runs', side: 'over' },
      { id: 'r2', player_key: 'ghost player', stat: 'hits', side: 'over' },
    ]];
    const res = await ledger.captureClosing('mlb', [PROP], { sb, gameDate: '2026-07-10' });
    expect(res.updated).toBe(1); // only the matched prop
    expect(sb._calls.updates[0].values).toEqual({ closing_line: 0.5, closing_odds: '-115' });
    expect(sb._calls.updates[0].ids).toEqual(['r1']);
  });
});

describe('getModelAggregate — never a % under min sample', () => {
  // beat_close/CLV are suppressed by default (item 7 — CLV capture broken until
  // C4). These tests exercise the CLV MATH, so enable the reliable flag; a
  // separate test below locks the default-suppressed behavior.
  beforeAll(() => { process.env.CLV_CAPTURE_RELIABLE = '1'; });
  afterAll(() => { delete process.env.CLV_CAPTURE_RELIABLE; });

  test('beat_close is SUPPRESSED by default until C4 (CLV capture broken)', async () => {
    delete process.env.CLV_CAPTURE_RELIABLE; // default state
    const sb = fakeSb();
    sb._state.selectResults = [[
      ...Array.from({ length: 13 }, () => ({ outcome: 'hit', clv_result: 'beat' })),
      ...Array.from({ length: 7 }, () => ({ outcome: 'miss', clv_result: 'faded' })),
    ]];
    sb._state.countResult = 0;
    const agg = await ledger.getModelAggregate({ sb });
    expect(agg.hit_pct).toBe(65);            // hit rate still renders (it's real)
    expect(agg.beat_close_pct).toBeNull();   // BEAT CLOSE hidden — measured-wrong
    expect(agg.clv_distribution).toBeNull();
    process.env.CLV_CAPTURE_RELIABLE = '1';  // restore for the rest of the block
  });

  test('below 20 settles → hit_pct/beat_close_pct null, counts real', async () => {
    const sb = fakeSb();
    sb._state.selectResults = [
      Array.from({ length: 5 }, () => ({ outcome: 'hit', clv_result: 'beat' })),
    ];
    sb._state.countResult = 42;
    const agg = await ledger.getModelAggregate({ sb });
    expect(agg.settled).toBe(5);
    expect(agg.hits).toBe(5);
    expect(agg.hit_pct).toBeNull();        // n<20 — RECORD BUILDING
    expect(agg.beat_close_pct).toBeNull();
    expect(agg.pending).toBe(42);
  });

  test('at 20+ settles → both percentages render', async () => {
    const sb = fakeSb();
    const rows = [
      ...Array.from({ length: 13 }, () => ({ outcome: 'hit', clv_result: 'beat' })),
      ...Array.from({ length: 7 }, () => ({ outcome: 'miss', clv_result: 'faded' })),
    ];
    sb._state.selectResults = [rows];
    sb._state.countResult = 3;
    const agg = await ledger.getModelAggregate({ sb });
    expect(agg.settled).toBe(20);
    expect(agg.hit_pct).toBe(65);          // 13 / (13+7)
    expect(agg.beat_close_pct).toBe(65);   // 13 beat / 20 with clv
  });
});

// Session 60 (night2/F, 5.5) — calibration by grade tier.
describe('getModelAggregate — per-tier calibration (n≥20 per tier)', () => {
  test('a tier at 20+ settles gets a pct; a small tier stays building (null)', async () => {
    const sb = fakeSb();
    const rows = [
      ...Array.from({ length: 14 }, () => ({ outcome: 'hit', clv_result: null, grade: 'A' })),
      ...Array.from({ length: 6 }, () => ({ outcome: 'miss', clv_result: null, grade: 'A-' })),
      ...Array.from({ length: 3 }, () => ({ outcome: 'hit', clv_result: null, grade: 'B' })),
    ];
    sb._state.selectResults = [rows];
    sb._state.countResult = 0;
    const agg = await ledger.getModelAggregate({ sb });
    expect(agg.by_tier.A.settled).toBe(20);   // A + A- bucket together
    expect(agg.by_tier.A.hit_pct).toBe(70);   // 14/(14+6)
    expect(agg.by_tier.B.settled).toBe(3);
    expect(agg.by_tier.B.hit_pct).toBeNull(); // under 20 → building
  });

  test('A+ stands ALONE; A/A- do NOT fold into it (Addition 2 bucketing)', async () => {
    const sb = fakeSb();
    const rows = [
      ...Array.from({ length: 5 }, () => ({ outcome: 'hit', clv_result: null, grade: 'A+' })),
      ...Array.from({ length: 4 }, () => ({ outcome: 'hit', clv_result: null, grade: 'A' })),
      ...Array.from({ length: 2 }, () => ({ outcome: 'miss', clv_result: null, grade: 'A-' })),
    ];
    sb._state.selectResults = [rows];
    sb._state.countResult = 0;
    const agg = await ledger.getModelAggregate({ sb });
    // A+ is its own bucket — never merged into the first-letter A bucket.
    expect(agg.by_tier['A+'].settled).toBe(5);
    expect(agg.by_tier['A+'].hits).toBe(5);
    // A + A- fold together by first letter (but NOT A+).
    expect(agg.by_tier.A.settled).toBe(6);
    expect(agg.by_tier.A.hits).toBe(4);
    expect(agg.by_tier.A.misses).toBe(2);
  });
});

// Session 61 — the odds index prefers a fully-priced book row (the null
// locked_odds rows from day one: first-seen betmgm SB unders had no juice
// while another book priced both sides).
describe('indexProps — prefers a book row with both sides priced', () => {
  const { indexProps } = ledger.__internals;
  test('a later both-sided row replaces a one-sided first row', () => {
    const oneSided = { player: 'A Guy', stat_type: 'stolen_bases', line: 0.5, book: 'betmgm', over_odds: 120, under_odds: null };
    const bothSided = { player: 'A Guy', stat_type: 'stolen_bases', line: 0.5, book: 'fanduel', over_odds: 130, under_odds: -170 };
    const idx = indexProps([oneSided, bothSided]);
    expect(idx['a guy|stolen_bases'].book).toBe('fanduel');
  });
  test('a both-sided first row is never displaced', () => {
    const bothSided = { player: 'A Guy', stat_type: 'hits', line: 1.5, book: 'fanduel', over_odds: -110, under_odds: -110 };
    const oneSided = { player: 'A Guy', stat_type: 'hits', line: 1.5, book: 'betmgm', over_odds: -115, under_odds: null };
    const idx = indexProps([bothSided, oneSided]);
    expect(idx['a guy|hits'].book).toBe('fanduel');
  });
});

// S6 (A1 board) — CLV distribution on the model aggregate. The n>=20 gate is
// centralized HERE (getModelAggregate) — consumers never re-derive it.
describe('getModelAggregate — clv_distribution (n>=20 gate lives in the service)', () => {
  const { clvBucketIndex, CLV_BUCKETS } = ledger.__internals;
  // CLV suppressed by default (item 7); enable to test the distribution math.
  beforeAll(() => { process.env.CLV_CAPTURE_RELIABLE = '1'; });
  afterAll(() => { delete process.env.CLV_CAPTURE_RELIABLE; });

  test('below 20 settles → clv_distribution is null (never a small-sample chart)', async () => {
    const sb = fakeSb();
    sb._state.selectResults = [
      Array.from({ length: 5 }, () => ({ outcome: 'hit', clv_result: 'beat', clv: 0.5 })),
    ];
    const agg = await ledger.getModelAggregate({ sb });
    expect(agg.clv_distribution).toBeNull();
  });

  test('at 20+ settles → seven ordered buckets, counts bucketed by signed clv', async () => {
    const sb = fakeSb();
    const rows = [
      ...Array.from({ length: 8 }, () => ({ outcome: 'hit', clv_result: 'beat', clv: 0.5 })),
      ...Array.from({ length: 4 }, () => ({ outcome: 'hit', clv_result: 'beat', clv: 1.5 })),
      ...Array.from({ length: 5 }, () => ({ outcome: 'miss', clv_result: 'faded', clv: -0.5 })),
      ...Array.from({ length: 2 }, () => ({ outcome: 'miss', clv_result: 'flat', clv: 0 })),
      { outcome: 'push', clv_result: 'faded', clv: -3 }, // outlier clamps into the edge bucket
    ];
    sb._state.selectResults = [rows];
    const agg = await ledger.getModelAggregate({ sb });
    const dist = agg.clv_distribution;
    expect(dist).toHaveLength(7);
    expect(dist.map((b) => b.label)).toEqual(CLV_BUCKETS.map((b) => b.label));
    expect(dist[0]).toMatchObject({ side: 'faded', count: 1 });  // [-2,-1) — clamped -3
    expect(dist[2]).toMatchObject({ side: 'faded', count: 5 });  // [-.5,0) — -0.5 closed on the left
    expect(dist[1]).toMatchObject({ side: 'faded', count: 0 });  // [-1,-.5) — empty
    expect(dist[3]).toMatchObject({ side: 'flat', count: 2 });   // exactly 0
    expect(dist[4]).toMatchObject({ side: 'beat', count: 8 });   // (0,.5]
    expect(dist[6]).toMatchObject({ side: 'beat', count: 4 });   // (1,2] — 1.5
  });

  test('rows without a settled clv value never fabricate a bucket', async () => {
    const sb = fakeSb();
    sb._state.selectResults = [
      Array.from({ length: 20 }, () => ({ outcome: 'hit', clv_result: 'beat', clv: null })),
    ];
    const agg = await ledger.getModelAggregate({ sb });
    expect(agg.clv_distribution).toBeNull(); // no real clv values → nothing
  });

  test('clvBucketIndex edges: boundaries land per the spec intervals', () => {
    expect(clvBucketIndex(0)).toBe(3);
    expect(clvBucketIndex(0.5)).toBe(4);   // (0,.5] closed on the right
    expect(clvBucketIndex(0.51)).toBe(5);
    expect(clvBucketIndex(1)).toBe(5);     // (.5,1]
    expect(clvBucketIndex(1.01)).toBe(6);
    expect(clvBucketIndex(-0.5)).toBe(2);  // [-.5,0) closed on the left
    expect(clvBucketIndex(-0.51)).toBe(1); // [-1,-.5)
    expect(clvBucketIndex(-1)).toBe(1);    // [-1,-.5) closed on the left
    expect(clvBucketIndex(-1.01)).toBe(0); // [-2,-1)
    expect(clvBucketIndex(-9)).toBe(0);    // clamp
    expect(clvBucketIndex(9)).toBe(6);     // clamp
    expect(clvBucketIndex(null)).toBe(-1); // absent beats wrong
  });
});