vyndr/tests/unit/rareEventSuppression.test.js

'use strict';
/**
 * NOTE ON `engine_grade` (2026-08-07 grade cutover).
 *
 * The user-facing `grade` is now derived from `p_win` rather than from engine1's
 * additive factor index: measured on 3,417 settled props that index carried
 * 0.16x the information of p_win, and its A hit worse than its F. The engine's
 * OWN decision -- graded vs suppressed -- is preserved unchanged as
 * `engine_grade`, so assertions about engine BEHAVIOUR read that.
 *
 * Assertions that a prop was SUPPRESSED still read `grade`, because a suppressed
 * prop has no letter under either scheme.
 *
 * Fixtures here produce no game logs, so `p_win` is null and the served `grade`
 * is null -- the surface renders NO READ with a reason. That is deliberate and
 * measured: 0.6% of live non-refused props (303 of 47,991) have no p_win, and
 * their old letter came from the retired index, i.e. noise.
 */


// Betting-logic audit (2026-07-19) — rare-event 0.5 markets. The UNDER is
// always suppressed (juiced); the OVER grades only when the model genuinely
// projects the event above the line; and the CONSENSUS-vs-MODEL board drops
// no-model rows so a suppressed market can't take the under's rank.

// ── config helpers (pure) ───────────────────────────────────────────────────
const cfg = require('../../src/config/rareEventMarkets');

describe('rareEventMarkets config', () => {
  test('the rare stats + threshold are config-driven (tunable, cross-sport)', () => {
    expect(cfg.RARE_EVENT_STATS).toEqual(
      expect.arrayContaining(['doubles', 'triples', 'home_runs', 'stolen_bases', 'steals', 'blocks']),
    );
    expect(cfg.RARE_EVENT_LINE_MAX).toBe(0.5);
    expect(cfg.JUICE_ODDS_FLOOR).toBe(-400); // the general guard's default
  });

  test('UNDER on a rare 0.5 market is suppressed', () => {
    for (const s of cfg.RARE_EVENT_STATS) {
      expect(cfg.isSuppressedRareUnder(s, 0.5, 'under')).toBe(true);
    }
    expect(cfg.isSuppressedRareUnder('doubles', 0.5, 'over')).toBe(false); // over handled separately
    expect(cfg.isSuppressedRareUnder('hits', 0.5, 'under')).toBe(false);   // hits is NOT rare
    expect(cfg.isSuppressedRareUnder('doubles', 1.5, 'under')).toBe(false); // 1.5 line is a diff market
  });

  test('OVER on a rare 0.5 market is suppressed UNLESS projection > line', () => {
    expect(cfg.isSuppressedRareOver('doubles', 0.5, 'over', 0.2)).toBe(true);   // 0.2 <= 0.5 → junk
    expect(cfg.isSuppressedRareOver('doubles', 0.5, 'over', 0.5)).toBe(true);   // == line → not genuine
    expect(cfg.isSuppressedRareOver('doubles', 0.5, 'over', 0.7)).toBe(false);  // 0.7 > 0.5 → genuine read
    expect(cfg.isSuppressedRareOver('doubles', 0.5, 'under', 0.2)).toBe(false); // under path, not this fn
    expect(cfg.isSuppressedRareOver('hits', 0.5, 'over', 0.2)).toBe(false);     // not rare
  });
});

describe('juice floor — the GENERAL, stat-agnostic guard', () => {
  test('graded-side odds are read from the graded direction', () => {
    expect(cfg.gradedSideOdds({ direction: 'under', under_odds: -800, over_odds: 120 })).toBe(-800);
    expect(cfg.gradedSideOdds({ direction: 'over', under_odds: -800, over_odds: 120 })).toBe(120);
    expect(cfg.parseAmerican('+600')).toBe(600);
    expect(cfg.parseAmerican(null)).toBeNull();
  });

  test('a side priced past the floor is too juiced (any stat)', () => {
    expect(cfg.isTooJuiced({ direction: 'under', under_odds: -800 })).toBe(true);  // the doubles case
    expect(cfg.isTooJuiced({ direction: 'under', under_odds: -1100 })).toBe(true);
    expect(cfg.isTooJuiced({ direction: 'under', under_odds: -400 })).toBe(true);  // == floor
  });

  test('normal + longshot prices are NOT juiced (legit markets preserved)', () => {
    expect(cfg.isTooJuiced({ direction: 'under', under_odds: -110 })).toBe(false);
    expect(cfg.isTooJuiced({ direction: 'under', under_odds: -250 })).toBe(false);
    expect(cfg.isTooJuiced({ direction: 'over', over_odds: 600 })).toBe(false);  // a real longshot over
  });

  test('no odds → cannot judge from price (falls back to the structural rule)', () => {
    expect(cfg.isTooJuiced({ direction: 'under' })).toBe(false);
    expect(cfg.isTooJuiced({ direction: 'under', under_odds: null })).toBe(false);
  });
});

// ── analyzeViaEngine1 integration ───────────────────────────────────────────
const mockComputeReturn = { current: null };
jest.mock('../../src/services/intelligence/computeFeatures', () => ({
  computeFeaturesForProp: async () => mockComputeReturn.current,
}));
const mockEngine1Return = { current: null };
jest.mock('../../src/services/intelligence/engine1', () => ({
  gradeProp: () => mockEngine1Return.current,
}));
const { analyzeViaEngine1 } = require('../../src/services/intelligence/analyzeViaEngine1');

const feat = (l5, line, dir) => ({
  features: { l5_avg: l5, l20_avg: l5 },
  trap: {}, consistency: { consistency: 'reliable', score: 0.7 },
  prop: { line, direction: dir }, meta: { sport: 'mlb', errors: [] },
});

beforeEach(() => {
  mockComputeReturn.current = null;
  mockEngine1Return.current = { grade: 'B', confidence: 0.55, top_factors: [], all_factors: [] };
});

describe('analyzeViaEngine1 — rare-event suppression', () => {
  test('doubles UNDER 0.5 is REFUSED (grade null, suppressed) — no compute', async () => {
    const out = await analyzeViaEngine1({ player: 'X', stat_type: 'doubles', line: 0.5, direction: 'under' });
    expect(out.grade).toBeNull();
    expect(out.suppressed).toBe(true);
    expect(out.suppressed_reason).toBe('rare_event_under');
    expect(out.insufficient_data).toBe(true); // filtered by gradeBestSide
  });

  test('doubles OVER 0.5 with projection 0.2 (<= line) is REFUSED', async () => {
    mockComputeReturn.current = feat(0.2, 0.5, 'over');
    const out = await analyzeViaEngine1({ player: 'X', stat_type: 'doubles', line: 0.5, direction: 'over' });
    expect(out.grade).toBeNull();
    expect(out.suppressed_reason).toBe('rare_event_over_below_line');
  });

  test('doubles OVER 0.5 with projection 0.7 (> line) GRADES — genuine event read', async () => {
    mockComputeReturn.current = feat(0.7, 0.5, 'over');
    const out = await analyzeViaEngine1({ player: 'X', stat_type: 'doubles', line: 0.5, direction: 'over' });
    expect(out.engine_grade).toBe('B');      // real grade, not suppressed
    expect(out.suppressed).toBeUndefined();
  });

  test('home_runs / stolen_bases / triples UNDER 0.5 all suppressed', async () => {
    for (const s of ['home_runs', 'stolen_bases', 'triples']) {
      const out = await analyzeViaEngine1({ player: 'X', stat_type: s, line: 0.5, direction: 'under' });
      expect(out.grade).toBeNull();
      expect(out.suppressed).toBe(true);
    }
  });

  test('a NON-rare under (hits) is unaffected — still grades', async () => {
    mockComputeReturn.current = feat(1.2, 0.5, 'under');
    const out = await analyzeViaEngine1({ player: 'X', stat_type: 'hits', line: 0.5, direction: 'under' });
    expect(out.engine_grade).toBe('B');
    expect(out.suppressed).toBeUndefined();
  });

  test('a rare stat at a 1.5 line (not 0.5) is unaffected', async () => {
    mockComputeReturn.current = feat(1.2, 1.5, 'under');
    const out = await analyzeViaEngine1({ player: 'X', stat_type: 'home_runs', line: 1.5, direction: 'under' });
    expect(out.engine_grade).toBe('B');
  });

  test('JUICE GUARD — a heavily-juiced side is refused for ANY stat, via price', async () => {
    // hits is NOT a rare-event stat, but the book pricing it -800 means no edge.
    const out = await analyzeViaEngine1({ player: 'X', stat_type: 'hits', line: 1.5, direction: 'under', under_odds: -800 });
    expect(out.grade).toBeNull();
    expect(out.suppressed_reason).toBe('juiced_no_edge');
  });

  test('JUICE GUARD — a normally-priced play still grades', async () => {
    mockComputeReturn.current = feat(1.4, 0.5, 'over');
    const out = await analyzeViaEngine1({ player: 'X', stat_type: 'hits', line: 0.5, direction: 'over', over_odds: -130 });
    expect(out.engine_grade).toBe('B'); // -130 is fine → real read
  });
});

// ── board layer: collectBreadth drops no-model rows ─────────────────────────
const { collectBreadth } = require('../../web/src/lib/marketBreadth');

describe('collectBreadth drops null-model rows (suppressed markets off the board)', () => {
  const books = [{ book: 'dk', line: 0.5 }, { book: 'fd', line: 0.5 }];
  test('a prop with no model (refused/ungraded) is not ranked onto the board', () => {
    const rows = collectBreadth([
      { player: 'Real', stat: 'hits', side: 'over', line: 1.5, books: [{ book: 'dk', line: 1.5 }, { book: 'fd', line: 1.5 }], modelValue: 2.1 },
      { player: 'Suppressed', stat: 'doubles', side: 'over', line: 0.5, books, modelValue: null },
    ], 6);
    expect(rows.map((r) => r.player)).toEqual(['Real']); // the null-model doubles is gone
  });
});