builtbykev
36014c7c30
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VsztNChZ7vEvSR61AuMhD1
21 KiB
VYNDR — PRODUCT COMPLETION MATRIX
Canonical board. Supersedes STATE.md's narrative. Re-derived from repo (b0a51c8),
prod (api.vyndr.app / vyndr.app, checked 2026-07-27), and the design bundle
(specs/design-reference/*). Every cell cites a file, a route, or a prod check.
DONE = all five YES: DESIGNED (spec exists) · BUILT (code exists) · WIRED (a user can reach it) · LIVE (serving in prod now) · HONEST (real data, not fabricated/inflated/ placeholder). A built-but-unrouted component is WIRED: NO regardless of code quality.
HONESTY PASS applied 2026-07-27 (
6bc18d8): every KNOWN live fabrication removed/hidden — see the "HONESTY PASS" section at the end. HONEST cells for rows 19/20/24 updated (✓).
SURFACE MATRIX — 16 of ~26 fully done (Book Comparison wired 2026-07-29)
| # | Surface | DESIGNED | BUILT | WIRED | LIVE | HONEST | DONE | Evidence / what's missing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Landing / hero | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | ✅ | Landing.dc.html; app/page.tsx; nav logo; prod /→200; Hero/TopSignals/ClaimMeter/ModelRecord all fetch real + self-hide |
| 2 | Dashboard / Slate | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | ✅ | Mobile.dc.html; Slate.tsx+vyndr/GameCard; Nav "Slate"; prod /dashboard→200; snapshot grades real (wnba 25/mlb 5 today) |
| 3 | Scan flow (S6/S7) | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | ✅ | Scanner States.dc.html; scan/page.tsx+ProcessingGrade; Nav "Read"; prod 200; real grade, honest NoMarketState |
| 4 | Grade result card | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | ✅ | System.dc.html reveal; GradeResultCard.tsx (3 importers); /scan; real grade. Sub-sections (alt ladder, books) gated/absent — see #17/#18 |
| 5 | Grade display / badge | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | ✅ | HANDOFF.md:41; GradeBadge.tsx; dashboard/scan/many; prod grades B/C real, no fake A |
| 6 | Ledger | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | ✅ | Intelligence.dc.html S4; ledger/page.tsx+ClvBadge; Nav "Ledger"; prod 200; n≥20 gate honored |
| 7 | Tier-record | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES* | ✅ | HANDOFF.md:33; TierRecord.tsx (6 routes); n≥20 gate. *A-tier "edge glow" is ranking-as-credibility, not proven ROI (honest-but-thin) |
| 8 | Pricing | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | ✅ | Mobile.dc.html; Pricing.tsx+ClaimMeter+DeskShowcase; Nav/Footer; prod 200; Stripe real, mocks removed |
| 9 | Public profile /u |
YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | ✅ | System.dc.html /u; PublicProfile.tsx; OPEN_ROUTE share link; prod /api/profiles/test→404 (privacy honest) |
| 10 | Player profile | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | ✅ | Mobile.dc.html PLAYER; player/[name]; reachable via playerHref links; prod /api/stats/player→found:true (archetype/propDNA/season) |
| 11 | Team hub | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES* | ✅ | Mobile.dc.html TEAM HUB; TeamHub.tsx; TeamLink on cards; prod /api/team/NYY→26 roster. *MLB real; NBA/WNBA partial roster |
| 12 | Explore | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | ✅ | Intelligence.dc.html; ExploreHub.tsx+FuturesBoard/NewsWire; Nav; prod 200; real leaders/futures, "TRACKED·NOT GRADED" label |
| 13 | WIRE / ticker | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | ✅ | System.dc.html WIRE; vyndr/Ticker.tsx; root layout; prod /api/ticker→30 real items |
| 14 | Streaks / hot list | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | ✅ | System.dc.html; landing panels + Explore; prod /api/streaks/mlb→240 (computed), self-hide honest |
| 15 | Live tracking | PARTIAL | YES | YES | YES | YES | ⚠️ | liveTrackingService+StatStrip.LiveTracker; Slate polls /api/live; prod hasLive:false now (valid empty). DESIGNED: no dedicated bundle artboard |
| 16 | Parlay lab | PARTIAL | YES | YES | YES | YES | ⚠️ | System.dc.html PARLAY BUILDER (not named "Lab"); parlay/page.tsx+ParlayPanel; #parlay drawer; prod /api/parlay/grade→real A- |
| 17 | Alt-line ladder | PARTIAL | YES | PARTIAL | YES | YES | ❌ | Champion alt_lines real (prod: 5 rungs w/ edge_pct) but Desk-tier only (tierGating.js:55); proj-v1 proj_ladder ledger-only. DESIGNED: only Offseason grouping, no prop alt-stack |
| 18 | Book comparison (S2) | YES | YES | YES✓ | YES | YES | ✅ | ✓WIRED 2026-07-29: BookComparisonPanel (self-fetches /api/books) on the GradeResultCard; renders per-book lines (books differ), single-book honest state, crown OFF (BOOK_CROWN_ENABLED=false, no best claim). Push-to-book + movement strip deliberately HELD |
| 19 | Price triplet | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES✓ | ❌ | ✓HONESTY PASS: null model/EV now NO_MODEL (honest-absent), no false "poisoned" copy. Still ❌: EV layer doesn't produce model_odds/ev (separate build) |
| 20 | Compare (H2H) | PARTIAL | in-dev | NO | YES | YES✓ | ❌ | ✓HONESTY PASS: fabrication removed → honest in-development state, pulled from Nav+BottomTabBar. Real two-player build pending (awaiting real build) |
| 21 | Newsletter | YES | YES | YES | PARTIAL | YES | ❌ | NewsletterCapture.tsx on /,/welcome; subscribe validates live; send internal-only. LIVE: Listmonk env config CANNOT DETERMINE from prod |
| 22 | Slip reader | PARTIAL | YES | PARTIAL | YES | YES | ❌ | slip/page.tsx; prod 200; 0 nav links → orphan (deep-link only). DESIGNED: a1-s9 spec, not the design bundle |
| 23 | Article media / share (S3) | YES | PARTIAL | NO | PARTIAL | YES | ❌ | Intelligence.dc.html ARTICLE MEDIA; ShareCard.tsx 0 real importers = DEAD; OG opengraph-image.tsx IS live. In-article archetype figures not built |
| 24 | Calibration / edge board | YES | YES | NO | NO | YES✓ | ❌ | ✓HONESTY PASS: placeholder-edge% MobileEdgeBoard REMOVED from the Slate (phones show real cards). Component kept as dead code until a real edge feed exists |
| 25 | System / Intelligence terminal | YES | YES | NO | PARTIAL | YES | ❌ | System.dc.html/Intelligence.dc.html; /terminal→redirect to /dashboard; /intelligence REAL but orphan (0 nav links); /system no page (prod 404) |
| 26 | Offseason hub (S-2) | YES | PARTIAL | NO | NO | — | ❌ | Offseason.dc.html full spec; no /offseason page (prod 404); logic only inline in FuturesBoard/NewsWire on Explore |
Prod endpoints confirmed LIVE + real: /api/snapshot/{mlb,wnba}, /api/accuracy (n=763),
/api/ledger/accuracy, /api/ticker, /api/books/mlb, /api/streaks, /api/hotlist,
/api/live, /api/schedule, /api/stats/{player,leaders}, /api/team, /api/parlay/grade.
MODEL MATRIX — champion serves; every challenger is ledger-only
| Component | EXISTS | PROVEN | PROMOTED (serving) | USED (a surface reads it) | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Champion (engine1) | YES | PARTIAL→promising | YES | YES | analyzeViaEngine1.js; enriched→snapshot/grades. SKEW AUDIT 2026-07-29: on takeable MLB overs (n=62) champion p_win→CLV partial r=0.375, SIG p≈0.003; SURVIVES the mechanical baseline (no-edge CLV +1.5pt n=20 vs high-edge +8.6pt n=37 → +7.1pt marginal). De-vig clean (same-book pairing); close well-defined (DK/MGM r=0.92). PROMISING, NOT confirmed (thin n; lock-staleness check BLOCKED; 1 sig result among many) |
| arch-v1 | YES | NO | NO | NO | challengerProjection.js; rides withChallenger→ledger only (:693). "measured, never served" (ledgerService.js:251) |
| contact-v1 | YES | NO | NO | NO | contactChallenger.js; ledger col p_win_contact only |
| proj-v1 / v1.1 | YES | NO (tested 2026-07-29) | NO | NO | projectionChallenger.js (MLB-batting only). PROOF ORDER verdict: NOT PROVEN on n=45 takeable MLB overs — edge-CLV partial-r (controlling price) = 0.245 (n.s.); ~half the raw signal is the shared −fair_prob_lock term (mechanical); and the CHAMPION out-predicts it (champ partial-CLV 0.380 sig, champ-edge→hit 0.25 vs proj 0.12). Ledger-only |
| Champion alt-ladder | YES | NO | YES | Desk-only | analyzeViaEngine1.js:486; real re-grades ±1 line; gradeAdapter.js:100 maps to card Desk-gated |
proj-v1 proj_ladder |
YES | NO | NO | NO | distribution.js:100; ledger-only, reaches no card |
| Price gate / EV | YES | PARTIAL | PARTIAL | PARTIAL | fields on enriched; hero gates on isTakeable+ev_pct (heroPropService.js:78). But prod grades show ev_pct/p_win/model_odds/value/takeable = NULL — built, served-schema, not producing |
Ladder question (Phase 2.6) — VERIFIED: proj-v1.1 DOES compute rungs above the line
projection/distribution.js:100 ladder() computes P(stat ≥ k) for a fixed rung set
k = 1..LADDER_MAX (default 4), independent of the listed line — so for a line of 1.5
(tradedRung=2) it emits rungs 1 (below), 2 (at), 3 and 4 (ABOVE), each a real
negative-binomial survival prob (projectionChallenger.js:183,200). "Ladder-up works"
— sole cap is LADDER_MAX=4. BUT proj_ladder is ledger-only and reaches no user
surface. So "ladder up from the listed line to find value" is computed and never wired.
HONEST-STATE SUMMARY
3.7 — What a PAYING USER sees right now that is not true
/compare— fabricated grades, nav-linked + public. Hardcoded Jokić A+ / Wembanyama A + fake "VYNDR VERDICT" (compare/page.tsx:10-62). No data behind it. The single worst live lie.- FAQ — phantom processor. "We use NexaPay" (
FAQ.tsx:28); every legal/pricing page says Stripe. Also founder price inconsistency ($24.99 vs $19.99). - FAQ + Features — Brier/CLV over-claim. "Brier score and CLV… published / from day one · Public accuracy by tier" (
FAQ.tsx:498,Features.tsx:323). No Brier surfaced anywhere; CLV held.CANNOT DETERMINEa live Brier surface — because none exists. - Mobile edge board — placeholder edge%.
MobileEdgeBoard.tsx:44renders a miscalibrated edge feed, masking >40% to "—". The numbers ≤40% still come from a placeholder pipeline. Live on mobile Slate. - Price triplet / EV markers advertised-and-absent. Grade schema carries
ev_pct/p_win/model_odds/value/takeable; all NULL on live grades — the "model price" leg and VALUE marker don't render though the design promises them.
Not inflated (verified honest): grades are B/C only with A/D/F below n≥20 → pct:null everywhere; AccuracyBadge/ModelRecord/TierRecord/ledger all honor the n≥20 gate and self-hide. Hit-rate (59%, n=763) shows without ROI/CLV (CLV frequently null) — thin, not false.
3.8 — The graveyard (built, no user can reach it)
BookComparison.tsx— 0 importers. Backend/api/booksis live + honest; nothing renders it. (S2 headliner.)ShareCard.tsx— 0 real importers (S3 share cards).components/GameCard.tsx(legacy) — type-only import; superseded byvyndr/GameCard.- proj-v1
proj_ladder— the above-line probability ladder; computed, ledger-only, never served. - arch-v1 + contact-v1 — challengers, ledger-only, never served ("measured, never served").
TerminalTemplates.tsx— all SAMPLE data;/terminalredirects → effectively unrouted.DemoScan.tsx— defined, never rendered./intelligence— REAL signals feed, but 0 nav links (orphan; reachable only by typing the URL)./soccer,/marketplace— REAL pages, 0 nav links (orphans)./notifications—RouteStub, unreachable.- Offseason hub — full design spec, no page built (prod
/offseason→404).
FULLY DONE (all five YES) — 15
Landing · Dashboard/Slate · Scan flow · Grade result card · Grade badge · Ledger ·
Tier-record · Pricing · Public profile /u · Player profile · Team hub · Explore ·
WIRE/Ticker · Streaks/Hot list · Live tracking.
NEAREST TO DONE (one column from YES) — the shortlist a single order could finish
| Surface | The one gap | Finish move |
|---|---|---|
| Book comparison (S2) | WIRED: NO | Route BookComparison.tsx onto the card from the live /api/books store (crown stays off — measured flat). Backend already shipped. |
| Parlay lab | DESIGNED: PARTIAL | Accept the System "PARLAY BUILDER" spec as the lab spec (functionally live) — a doc call, not a build. |
| Compare (H2H) | HONEST: NO | Replace the hardcoded SAMPLE with a real two-player fetch, or pull it from nav until real. |
| Price triplet | HONEST: PARTIAL | Make the price-aware EV layer actually produce p_win/ev_pct/model_odds on served grades (built, not firing). |
| Newsletter | LIVE: PARTIAL | Confirm/enable Listmonk env (config CANNOT DETERMINE from outside). |
| Slip reader | WIRED: PARTIAL | Add one nav/More-sheet link (page is live + honest). |
| Calibration / edge board | HONEST: NO | Fix the placeholder edge% feed (backend), or hide the board until real. |
Two-plus columns out (bigger builds): Alt-line ladder (design + wire the served
probability ladder), System/Intelligence terminal (wire the orphan /intelligence),
Article media/S3 (build in-article figures; ShareCard dead), Offseason hub
(no page at all).
Tags: all cells VERIFIED against repo/prod/bundle except — Newsletter LIVE (Listmonk env) and a live Brier surface = CANNOT DETERMINE (none found). Nothing BLOCKED.
HONESTY PASS — applied 2026-07-27 (commit 6bc18d8, deployed)
Removed/hid every KNOWN live fabrication. REMOVE/HIDE only — no grade, snapshot, scorer, pipeline, or real feature touched. Updated HONEST cells:
| Item | Was | Now |
|---|---|---|
| /compare (row 20) | HONEST: NO — hardcoded Jokić A+/Wembanyama A + fake VERDICT, nav-linked | Honest in-development state; removed from Nav + BottomTabBar. Real two-player build pulled, awaiting real build. |
| Pricing (founder copy) | $34.99 desk / struck $19.99 / FAQ $24.99 — wrong | Founder Desk $44.99 (matches lib/checkout.js), Analyst $14.99; struck "regular" numbers removed; DeskShowcase $34.99→$44.99. First-100 counter is REAL (ClaimMeter→Stripe). No "first 50" desk claim (no such counter). |
| FAQ processor | "NexaPay" | Stripe (verified live: Next→Express→checkout.stripe.com). nexapay.ts + its webhook route were PURGED 2026-07-27 (NexaPay Purge order) — cross-project contamination, never a real VYNDR path. Provider-side env/keys + the orphaned user_profiles.nexapay_customer_id column flagged for Kev. |
| FAQ + Features "Brier/CLV published from day one" | INFLATED (not surfaced) | Removed. Returns when Brier/CLV are actually surfaced. Backend Brier compute untouched. |
| Calibration / edge board (row 24) | HONEST: NO — MobileEdgeBoard placeholder edge% (masked >40%) | Removed from the Slate; phones show the real game cards. Component kept as dead code (hidden, not deleted) until a real edge feed exists. |
| Price triplet (row 19) | HONEST: PARTIAL — null model/EV rendered "MODEL READ WITHHELD · poisoned" (false quarantine) | New NO_MODEL honest-absent state: MODEL "—" / "NOT PRICED", no verdict. Fixes grade card + LiveHeroProp. EV layer still doesn't produce values (separate build). |
KEPT ON THE BOARD (real work to finish — NOT cut)
- Article media / S3 (row 23) — real feature + free SEO/distribution. Finish, don't delete. Only the false "Brier/CLV" claim about it was corrected.
- Newsletter / THE WIRE (row 21, 13) — real. Capture live, honest.
FUTURE MODEL INPUT (logged only — not built this order)
- News / line-movement signal — injuries, scratches, lineups, weather move props before books reprice. Wire later as a model input. This is ADDITIVE to the media surfaces, not a replacement for them.
KNOWN HONESTY GAPS (not fixed this order — logged, not fabrication)
- Hit rate 59% (n=763) shown without ROI/CLV — thin, not false. ROI/CLV surfacing is a later build.
- CLV instrument REPAIRED 2026-07-28 (commit
6552281). Was: 59 usable closing_prob. Now: 406 (MLB 248, WNBA 158) — the collapse wasattachClosingProb's.limit(50000)/no-ORDER-BY read + write-oncemarket_unavailable, NOT capture (95% per-prop coverage) or the join (0 key mismatches). CLV finding, straight: MLB unders lag the close (mean −9.1 prob-pts, 74% lose); MLB overs +2.0; WNBA flat. → the +4.57% MLB-C and over/under asymmetry are substantially stale-line artifacts. This UNBLOCKS the proof order (proj-v1.1), which gates promoting p_win/ev to served grades.
Honest state after this order: "no KNOWN live fabrications" — not "provably none." The audit was thorough (repo + prod), but absence of a claim of falsehood is not a proof of universal truth.
proj-v1.1 TAKEABLE-EDGE PROOF — verdict 2026-07-29 (report-only, read-only)
N-gate PASSED: overlap = 45 (settled ∩ proj-v1.1 ∩ MLB over ∩ CLV close ∩ fair_prob_lock ∩ takeable −160..+200). The CLV repair is what made n≥30 reachable. Edge basis = proj_p_over_line − proj_book_implied (de-vigged fair, VERIFIED not raw book).
VERDICT: NOT PROVEN. proj-v1.1's takeable-edge does NOT beat the champion or clearly beat the close on MLB overs.
- Phase 1 buckets (descriptive; only the neg bucket clears ≥15): 6%+ edge (n=11) shows hit 70% / fair-ROI +0.57 / CLV +12.95pts — but even negative-edge rows show +2.7pt CLV (whole over-side is elevated = the stale-high concern).
- Phase 2 partial correlation (the real test): raw r(edge,CLV)=0.455 → partial r(edge,CLV | price)=0.245, n.s. at n=45 (t≈1.64, p≈0.11). ~half the raw signal is the shared −fair_prob_lock term (mechanical). proj predicts the close itself only weakly (partial r(proj,close|lock)=0.281, n.s.).
- Phase 2.6 champion comparison (same 45 rows): the CHAMPION out-predicts proj-v1.1 — champ-edge→hit r=0.250 vs proj 0.120; champ partial-CLV=0.380 (SIGNIFICANT, p≈0.01) vs proj 0.245 (n.s.). Positive-edge fair-ROI comparable (proj +0.39 n=19, champ +0.34 n=26).
- Shown, not judged: MLB unders (n=20) CLV −9.34pts, r(edge,CLV)=−0.03 (contaminated, zero signal); WNBA — proj-v1.1 does not run (MLB-batting only), N/A.
Conditional dependency (moot): the verdict was to be conditional on the under-capture audit clearing the over-side. It's moot — proj-v1.1 fails Phase 2.6 (loses to the champion) BEFORE the audit applies, so NOT PROVEN regardless. The stale-high concern is corroborated (whole-over-side baseline +CLV; half of proj's signal mechanical).
Notable: the one statistically-defensible edge signal here is the CHAMPION's p_win predicting CLV on takeable MLB overs (partial 0.380, p≈0.01) — NOT proj-v1.1. That champion signal is itself still audit-gated (if MLB overs are whole-side stale-high, even it is suspect).
What accrues a re-test: ~20-25 more settled takeable MLB-over rows (to test proj's residual ~0.245 partial against zero), AND proj-v1.1 must demonstrate it beats the champion — which it currently does not. Promotion stays HELD.
OVER-SIDE SKEW AUDIT — verdict 2026-07-29 (report-only, read-only)
Gates the champion's over-CLV signal (partial r=0.375, p≈0.003, n=62 takeable MLB overs — 0.2 CONFIRMED).
THE THREE NUMBERS (Phase 4), n at each:
- Mechanical baseline CLV (champ-edge ≤ 0, "no edge"): +1.51 pts (n=20)
- Champion high-edge CLV (champ-edge ≥ 0.05): +8.64 pts (n=37)
- DIFFERENCE = the real edge: +7.14 pts
VERDICT: SURVIVES BASELINE. The marginal (+7.1) is ~5× the mechanical floor (+1.5) and the price-controlled partial correlation stays significant. The skew is essentially ONE-SIDED (unders lag −7.0 overall; overs carry only a small +1.5 floor, NOT the +7 a symmetric two-sided over-skew would show). De-vig is CLEAN (analyzeViaEngine1.js:539 pairs over+under from the same book/fetch — no fresh/stale pairing). Close is well-defined (draftkings vs betmgm over-prob r=0.921, n=151).
→ GREENLIGHTS building the takeable-edge grade ON THE CHAMPION (engine1 p_win), NOT proj-v1.1 (which lost the proof). This is the project's first edge signal to survive an adversarial audit.
FLAGGED — promising, NOT confirmed:
- Thin n (62 overs / 37 high-edge / 20 baseline).
- Phase 2 lock-staleness check is BLOCKED: multi-book lines AT LOCK are not retained (
bookpricesis Redis current-only), so we cannot fully rule out that part of the baseline is lock-time staleness. The de-vig being clean + the small baseline make a large hidden skew unlikely, but it's not excluded. - Sharp (pinnacle) reference covers only 8 props (sharp-CLV +3.17pt, directional hint only).
- This is one significant result among many computed this session — do not overstate.
What would strengthen it: retain multi-book at lock (enables the sharp/consensus lock-staleness check), and accrue more settled takeable MLB-over rows. Held: no promotion, no served p_win/ev, no capture fix — diagnosis only.
UPDATE 2026-07-29 (commit c7067c8): the lock-multi-book gap is now CLOSED. New lock_lines table (migration 033, applied+tracked) persists each graded prop's per-book lines at the lock moment (lockLineCapture in snapshotService, fenced RLS-service-role-only, grade byte-identical proven). This unblocks the staleness audit for FUTURE rows — it does NOT retroactively fix the existing 62. Confirmation still needs weeks of accrued lock+close+outcome. Populates from the next snapshot tick.