vyndr/specs/accrual-watch-and-resumption.md

The accrual watch — the program is idle on modeling, and that is correct

PHASE 0 — live-surface integrity

check	result
Grade bands not derived from the retired champion	PASS — gradeBands is required by no serving code. Built across several orders, never wired. No stale band can reach a user because none reaches a user at all.
No withdrawn-map leak	PASS — CALIBRATION_DEPLOYED is [] and the calibrate loop iterates it, so calibrate() is never called. The only p_win_calibrated assignment sits inside that empty loop. Served p_win is repaired-champion raw.
Refusals on the repaired reference	PASS — projectionFor reads l20_avg, which mlbGameLogFeatures now builds from fullLog.
Factors still fire post-repair	PASS — the repair moved the base they adjust, so sign was re-verified across it: at base 0.35/0.50/0.65/0.80, defence lowers, pitcher-contact raises, platoon raises at every point. Firing check only; not a lift re-measurement.

One defect found, and it was mine

The grade card rendered "Last 20 games average: X" from l20_avg — a field that, after the repair, holds a full-season average. The number moved and the label did not, so the surface asserted a window that no longer existed. Fixed to "Season average"; trapDetection's L20 explanations likewise.

Same class as everything else tonight, one layer out: a correct-looking string describing data that moved underneath it.

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PHASE 1 — the existence risk, resolved

Nineteen commits (7b85934 → 2391574) were local-only with no push credentials. Three retrievable artifacts now exist:

artifact	path	size
session bundle	~/vyndr-session-2026-08-07.bundle	244K
full-history bundle (self-contained)	~/vyndr-full-history-2026-08-07.bundle	6.8M
patch series (20 files)	~/vyndr-session-patches/	1.5M

Use the full-history bundle — the session bundle verifies as requiring ref 6452926…, so it only applies onto a repo that already has this history. The full-history one clones standalone:

git clone ~/vyndr-full-history-2026-08-07.bundle vyndr-recovered

This is the top non-accrual action item. Copy one of these off the machine.

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PHASE 2 — the accrual watch

repaired champion marker: engine1@2026-08-07-fullwindow
eligible rows: 0 | eligible dates: 0
blocked: no settled rows yet carry the repaired champion marker

item	need	have	status
calibration re-fit	10 dates	0	WAITING
hits factor lift	10 dates	0	WAITING
prior verdict re-audit	14 dates	0	WAITING
rbi lineup-slot gate	14 dates	0	WAITING

Zero is the correct starting line: the repair ships in this session's commits, so no settled row can carry the marker yet.

These are ATTEMPT floors, not TRUST floors

Reaching 10 dates means "the calibration re-fit can now be measured." It does NOT mean the re-fit is trustworthy. We lived this distinction the hard way tonight: date-block CIs on 2–4 clusters, a LODO gate with 1.4–9.3% power, and a ≥40 date-cluster bar that was correct as a promotion bar and wrong as a deploy bar. A 10-date map is thin. It deploys PROVISIONAL with auto-demotion, like everything else, and its interval will still be wide.

No future session may read "threshold met" as "answer certified."

Real-time estimates

Roughly one MLB slate per day, but per-stat settled volume differs — hits props are far more numerous than rbi, and a "date" only counts once its props settle.

item	dates	realistic wall-clock
calibration re-fit, hits lift	10	~2 weeks
verdict re-audit, rbi gate	14	3+ weeks (rbi accrues slowest)

The wait is designed, not a stall. The alternative — measuring on reconstructions of a retired forecast — is the trap this program has now refused by name three times.

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PHASE 3 — the pre-registered resumption order

Triggered purely by eligible-date thresholds. No re-litigation, no re-deciding:

1. @10 dates — calibration re-fit on the repaired champion. Low-parameter, LODO where powered, PROVISIONAL, auto-demotion armed, shadow duel restarts on the repaired forecast. The favourite-longshot bias must be re-measured, not assumed to have survived the repair.
2. @10 dates — hits factor composed-lift re-measure. The 1.39% figure is void — measured on the broken baseline. Direction unknown.
3. @14 dates — prior factor verdict re-audit. Every null and every THEATER was scored against a champion worse than a frequency table. Not pre-priced; some may pass, some may still fail.
4. @14 dates — rbi lineup-slot / RISP through the two-part gate. World A ~90%, within-role residual 0.01908 real, lineup_context prod-verified (S89).

FIRST TRIGGER: when reAuditEligibility.assess() reports 10 eligible calibration dates, the next order is the calibration re-fit.

Until then the program is honestly IDLE on modeling. That is the correct state, not a gap to fill.

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Invariants

No measurement on reconstructions — held. Phase 0 verified live integrity and factor firing; it did not re-measure lift or re-fit calibration. Serving change for the label fix, fingerprinted. p_win never mutated. No Bonferroni slot.