PREMISE CORRECTION: the per-archetype rescale is not "proven and live on
hits". gradeBands was built, gated and explicitly NOT wired two orders
ago -- no hits archetype slot reached sample, every band came back
base-rate, and only defense_by_direction proved pooled. This applies an
unvalidated-at-archetype-level method to a second stat.
FULL-HISTORY AUDIT: 988 clean settled TB rows (101 quarantined, 948 with
p_win), 341 players, and only 9 DISTINCT GAME DATES. No archetype slot
reaches 500 -- BOMBER 340, GHOST 147, BRUSH 55. Confirmed short on full
history, not a windowed artifact. The 9-date figure matters more than the
row count: ~49 games means any game- or venue-borne factor has almost no
replication here.
THE BASELINE HAD TO CHANGE, to a harder null. TB lines vary (1.5 on 559
rows, 0.5 on 345), so a per-line personal base rate would rest on ~2 rows
per player-line and would have to be invented. The null is the counter's
own p_win, which already prices the line -- beating the champion, not
beating "he's due".
THE UNITS BUG, caught, and it had produced the best result in the
programme. The first run reported barrel_rate at Brier -0.0095, the
largest improvement ever measured here. fromStatcastRow returns
barrel_pct as a FRACTION (0.06) while the raw table stores 0-100, so
(0.06 - 7.8) * 0.018 clamped EVERY row to the maximum negative shift.
That uniform downward push "improved" Brier purely by leaning on the
counter's over-prediction and contained no barrel information at all.
Same family as the S80 trap, inverted. exit_velo was a second bug -- the
column is avg_exit_velo, so it read null on every row and reported n=0. A
zero is a wiring bug until proven an honest absence.
GATE with units fixed, 138 cumulative tests:
barrel_rate n=707 shift 0.0364 brier +0.0036 THEATER
exit_velo n=707 shift 0.0229 brier +0.0022 THEATER
hard_contact_allowed n=707 shift 0.0260 brier +0.0033 THEATER
park_weather_hit_type n=651 36 entities PENDING (k<40)
platoon_severity n=481 PENDING (n<500)
THE PREDICTED INVERSION WENT THE OTHER WAY. BOMBER x barrel_rate is
+0.0114, the single most harmful cell in the table, exactly where the
strongest proof was predicted. GHOST +0.0012. All sample-blocked so not a
verdict, but recorded so it is not claimed later.
AND IT IS NOT DOUBLE-COUNTING -- tested and refuted: corr(barrel, p_win)
= -0.061, the counter is not pricing barrel at all. The duller answer is
corr(barrel, counter RESIDUAL) = -0.012. Barrel is a real skill that
carries no information about what the counter gets wrong at this line.
That also closes the S81 lead: hard_hit r=0.153 at n=295 drifted to 0.135
at n=383 and is THEATER at n=707.
THE REAL FINDING: TB is miscalibrated, not under-factored. mean p_win
0.5698 vs actual 0.5074, bias +0.0624. Held out on a strict time split
(fit < 2026-08-02, eval 651 unseen rows): raw 0.25007, constant de-bias
0.24740 (-0.00267), isotonic 0.24621 (-0.00386). Worth more than any
factor tested and the only intervention pointing the right way -- and
still refused at the corrected bar on 32 clusters. A CANDIDATE, not a
result. It also explains the units bug's fake success exactly: a blanket
downward shift is a crude de-bias.
NO RESCALE. Nothing proved, nothing certified calibrated, no slot at
sample -- every band would be the honest base-rate band gradeBands
already returns by construction.
Counter and frozen clusters byte-identical.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01W1sivYNqY2TS5ftykmHBU9
builtbykev
6a327d9114
