vyndr/tests/unit/shadowAccrual.test.js

'use strict';

/**
 * A7 — does the shadow EVIDENCE actually accrue, on the scheduled path?
 *
 * A6 measured the shadow firing in a hand-run script. That proves the resolver
 * works; it does not prove a scheduled snapshot writes anything. This drives the
 * REAL `gradeAndCacheSlate` -> onGraded -> rowsFromSides chain with injected
 * deps and asserts a `would_fire` block lands on the retention row.
 *
 * The distinction matters: A5 found factors that were built, correct, and never
 * invoked. Evidence that is generated but never persisted is the same failure
 * one layer along.
 */

const gradeSlate = require('../../src/services/gradeSlateService');
const retention = require('../../src/services/retentionService');
const ff = require('../../src/services/model/factorFreeze');
const hf = require('../../src/services/model/hitsFactors');
const { nameKey } = require('../../src/utils/playerName');

const JUDGE = nameKey('Aaron Judge');

const SPRAY = {
  as_of_date: '2026-08-10', player_key: JUDGE,
  pull_gb: 0.30, straight_gb: 0.20, oppo_gb: 0.10,
  pull_air: 0.20, straight_air: 0.10, oppo_air: 0.10,
};
const OAA = {
  '3B': { oaa: 2 }, SS: { oaa: 1 }, LF: { oaa: 0 }, '1B': { oaa: 0 },
  '2B': { oaa: 1 }, RF: { oaa: -1 }, CF: { oaa: 0 },
};
const SPLITS = { vl: { pa: 120, atBats: 110, hits: 33 }, vr: { pa: 300, atBats: 280, hits: 70 } };

/** The LIVE context: no opponent, no pitcher — the measured production state. */
const liveCtx = () => ({
  spray: SPRAY, positionOaa: null, bats: 'R', throws: null,
  pitcherHardHit: null, platoonSplits: SPLITS, archetype: 'BOMBER', as_of: null,
});
/** The SHADOW context: same indexes, joined through the resolved keys. */
const shadowCtx = () => ({ ...liveCtx(), positionOaa: OAA, throws: 'L', pitcherHardHit: 0.45 });

const KEYS = {
  opponent: 'Boston Red Sox', opposing_pitcher: 'Chris Sale',
  source: 'lineup_context+schedule', refused: null,
};

/** A resolver with A6's signature: keys omitted = live, keys supplied = shadow. */
const resolver = (prop, sport, keys) => (keys ? shadowCtx() : liveCtx());

const PROP = {
  player: 'Aaron Judge', stat_type: 'hits', line: 0.5, book: 'draftkings',
  over_odds: -120, under_odds: 100, game_time: '2026-08-10T23:05:00Z',
};

/** A grader that runs the REAL engine freeze/shadow logic in miniature. */
function fakeGrade(base) {
  const legacy = {
    player: base.player, stat_type: base.stat_type, line: base.line,
    direction: base.direction, grade: 'B', confidence: 70, p_win: 0.55,
  };
  // This mirrors analyzeViaEngine1's A5/A6 block exactly.
  if (String(base.stat_type).toLowerCase() === 'hits' && base.factor_context) {
    const live = hf.adjustProbability(0.55, base.factor_context);
    if (live.p_adjusted != null && live.factors_fired > 0) legacy.p_win = live.p_adjusted;
    let shadow = null;
    const keys = base.matchup_keys || null;
    if (keys && (keys.opponent || keys.opposing_pitcher) && typeof base.factor_context_resolver === 'function') {
      const sc = base.factor_context_resolver(base, base.sport, keys);
      if (sc) shadow = ff.shadowBlock(sc, hf.hitsFactorMultiplier(sc), keys);
    }
    legacy.factor_inputs = ff.freeze(base.factor_context, base, shadow);
  }
  return legacy;
}

async function runSlate(opts = {}) {
  const collected = [];
  await gradeSlate.gradeAndCacheSlate('mlb', [PROP], {
    grade: fakeGrade,
    factorContext: resolver,
    matchupKeys: opts.matchupKeys !== undefined ? opts.matchupKeys : (() => KEYS),
    cacheSet: async () => {},
    onGraded: (base, sides) => {
      collected.push(...retention.rowsFromSides(base, sides, {
        snapshotId: 's1', capturedAt: '2026-08-10T14:00:00Z', sport: 'mlb', gameDate: '2026-08-10',
      }));
    },
    ...opts.slate,
  });
  return collected;
}

describe('the shadow accrues through the REAL slate path', () => {
  it('a graded hits row lands with would_fire on it', async () => {
    const rows = await runSlate();
    expect(rows.length).toBeGreaterThan(0);
    const row = rows.find((r) => r.factor_inputs);
    expect(row).toBeDefined();
    expect(row.factor_inputs.would_fire).not.toBeNull();
    expect(row.factor_inputs.would_fire.factors_fired).toBeGreaterThan(0);
    expect(row.factor_inputs.would_fire.keys.opponent).toBe('Boston Red Sox');
  });

  it('the row also carries the LIVE refusal — both states, side by side', async () => {
    const rows = await runSlate();
    const fi = rows.find((r) => r.factor_inputs).factor_inputs;
    expect(fi.position_oaa).toBeNull();                     // what the grade saw
    expect(fi.throws).toBeNull();
    expect(fi.would_fire.shadow_inputs.throws).toBe('L');   // what it would have
  });

  it('would_fire stays RE-DERIVABLE from what is stored beside it', async () => {
    const rows = await runSlate();
    const fi = rows.find((r) => r.factor_inputs).factor_inputs;
    const re = hf.hitsFactorMultiplier({
      spray: fi.spray, bats: fi.bats,
      platoonSplits: fi.platoon
        ? { vl: { pa: fi.platoon.vl.pa, atBats: fi.platoon.vl.ab, hits: fi.platoon.vl.hits },
          vr: { pa: fi.platoon.vr.pa, atBats: fi.platoon.vr.ab, hits: fi.platoon.vr.hits } }
        : null,
      positionOaa: fi.would_fire.shadow_inputs.position_oaa,
      throws: fi.would_fire.shadow_inputs.throws,
      pitcherHardHit: fi.would_fire.shadow_inputs.pitcher_hard_hit,
    });
    expect(re.multiplier).toBe(fi.would_fire.multiplier);
  });

  it('THE SERVED GRADE IS UNTOUCHED — p_win is the unadjusted forecast', async () => {
    const rows = await runSlate();
    for (const r of rows) expect(Number(r.p_win)).toBe(0.55);
  });

  it('no matchupKeys resolver => no would_fire, and the grade is the same', async () => {
    const rows = await runSlate({ matchupKeys: null });
    const fi = rows.find((r) => r.factor_inputs).factor_inputs;
    expect(fi.would_fire).toBeNull();
    for (const r of rows) expect(Number(r.p_win)).toBe(0.55);
  });

  it('refused keys => no shadow fire, never a guess', async () => {
    const refused = { opponent: null, opposing_pitcher: null, source: null, refused: 'no_lineup_row' };
    const rows = await runSlate({ matchupKeys: () => refused });
    expect(rows.find((r) => r.factor_inputs).factor_inputs.would_fire).toBeNull();
  });
});

describe('the scheduled path carries the shadow (not just a hand-run script)', () => {
  const src = require('fs').readFileSync(
    require('path').join(__dirname, '..', '..', 'src/services/snapshotService.js'), 'utf8');

  it('runSnapshot builds the key index and passes it to the grader', () => {
    expect(src).toMatch(/matchupKeys/);
    expect(src).toMatch(/gradeAndCacheSlate\(sp, props, \{\s*\n\s*factorContext,\s*\n\s*matchupKeys,/);
  });

  it('the index is built BEFORE the grade call, not after', () => {
    expect(src.indexOf('FIX A6 — THE JOIN KEYS')).toBeLessThan(src.indexOf('await deps.gradeAndCacheSlate('));
  });

  it('runAllSnapshots (the cron entrypoint) routes through runSnapshot', () => {
    expect(src).toMatch(/async function runAllSnapshots/);
    expect(src).toMatch(/runSnapshot\(/);
  });

  it('a key-resolve failure degrades to no-shadow, never breaking the slate', () => {
    const i = src.indexOf('FIX A6 — THE JOIN KEYS');
    const block = src.slice(i, i + 1600);
    expect(block).toMatch(/catch \(e\)/);
    expect(block).toMatch(/matchupKeys = null|no key index/);
  });
});