builtbykev
7a925f43eb
Steps 1-6 — make "real opportunities at takeable prices" the engine, not a filter. 1. DE-VIG (src/utils/devig.js): two-way multiplicative de-vig strips the vig and returns fair prob + fair price per side + the overround. One side missing → fair UNAVAILABLE (null), never faked. Method noted in code + the `devig_method` field. 2. EV (devig.evPct): ev_pct = model prob × decimal − 1 at the graded side's ACTUAL price. This is the ranking signal now, replacing raw |model−consensus|. 3. TAKEABLE gate (src/config/valueEngine.js, TAKEABLE_ODDS_CEILING −160 .. +200, env-tunable): promoted surfaces only (hero/featured/alerts). The full board still shows everything; Parlay Lab exempt; JUICE_ODDS_FLOOR (−400) stays the absolute backstop underneath. Strict null-guard (Number(null)===0 would have made a missing price "takeable"). 4. VALUE flag: passes BOTH gates (takeable AND ev_pct ≥ VALUE_EV_THRESHOLD). Grade = read quality; value = the price pays you. Shipped in payloads. 5. HERO v2 (heroPropService): highest ev_pct among takeable A/B reads — a huge gap on a −900 line is trivia, not an opportunity. 6. VALUE TRIPLET: book_odds · fair_odds · model_odds on every read (snapshot, hero, scan — they all spread the grade). Handoff documents the fields; the rendering is Session-2 Design's job. All wired in analyzeViaEngine1's existing p_win/kelly block (real quantile probability × real book odds, or nothing). 33 new tests; suite 276/3306 green. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
50 lines
1.9 KiB
JavaScript
50 lines
1.9 KiB
JavaScript
'use strict';
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/**
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* Value engine config (Model Train, steps 3-4).
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*
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* Product doctrine (Kev): VYNDR PROMOTES bets people actually take — roughly the
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* -160 to +200 band — that ALSO carry a genuine vig-free edge. Not
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* plus-money-only, not heavy chalk.
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*
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* The TAKEABLE gate applies to PROMOTED surfaces only (daily hero, featured /
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* top-of-board, future alerts). The full board still shows every graded read.
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* Parlay Lab is EXEMPT (juiced legs combine into takeable payouts).
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* JUICE_ODDS_FLOOR (-400, in rareEventMarkets) stays the absolute refusal
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* backstop UNDERNEATH this — those reads are never graded at all.
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*
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* All thresholds are env-tunable.
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*/
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// The promotable price band. Ceiling = most-juiced favorite we'll promote;
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// max = longest dog we'll promote.
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const TAKEABLE_ODDS_CEILING = Number(process.env.TAKEABLE_ODDS_CEILING || -160);
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const TAKEABLE_ODDS_MAX = Number(process.env.TAKEABLE_ODDS_MAX || 200);
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// A read is VALUE only when its EV clears this (a real edge, not rounding).
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const VALUE_EV_THRESHOLD = Number(process.env.VALUE_EV_THRESHOLD || 2);
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/** Is an American price inside the takeable band (default -160..+200)?
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* Strict on input — null/''/undefined are NOT takeable (Number(null) === 0
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* would otherwise land a missing price inside the band). */
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function isTakeable(american) {
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if (american == null || american === '') return false;
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const a = Number(american);
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if (!Number.isFinite(a)) return false;
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return a >= TAKEABLE_ODDS_CEILING && a <= TAKEABLE_ODDS_MAX;
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}
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/** A read carries VALUE when it's takeable AND its EV clears the threshold —
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* "the price pays you to take it", distinct from grade ("read quality"). */
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function isValue(american, evPct) {
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return isTakeable(american) && Number.isFinite(evPct) && evPct >= VALUE_EV_THRESHOLD;
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}
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module.exports = {
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TAKEABLE_ODDS_CEILING,
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TAKEABLE_ODDS_MAX,
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VALUE_EV_THRESHOLD,
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isTakeable,
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isValue,
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};
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