in code
PHASE 0 — getStatRows is the single base-rate path, so every branch is
audited, plus the feature builders since l20_avg is the season reference
projectionFor reads:
getStatRows MLB -> estimator base fullLog CORRECT (929fd81)
mlbGameLogFeatures l5/l10/l20 last10 = 10 DEFECTIVE
espnStatsAdapter.parseGameLog slice(0,20) DEFECTIVE
getStatRows NBA/WNBA ESPN branch inherits 20-cap DEFECTIVE via source
getStatRows NBA/WNBA python branch getGameLogs(...,20) dormant (offline)
pitcherEngine / skillProjection statcast profiles N/A
pitcher props via getStatRows MLB fullLog CORRECT
settleSource full log (S64) CORRECT
THE PITCHER ANSWER IS GOOD NEWS: pitcher props run through the same
getStatRows MLB branch, so 929fd81 repaired them too. There is no separate
defective pitcher base-rate path.
THE ONE HIDING IN PLAIN SIGHT: mlbGameLogFeatures carries the comment
"l20 = all available (the season per-game reference projectionFor needs)"
while building from last10 -- so l20_avg was a TEN-GAME AVERAGE WEARING A
SEASON LABEL, feeding both the consistency pull inside the estimator and
projectionFor, which decides refusals. It survived the previous repair
because that fix touched only getStatRows.
PHASE 1 — mlbGameLogFeatures now reads fullLog; espnStatsAdapter drops its
slice(0,20) cap. ZERO new API calls on both: each widens data already
fetched and then discarded, the same shape as the original repair. The
python branch is left alone -- the service is offline in prod and fixing it
would be speculative.
Their before/after resolution is NOT measured, deliberately: the only way
to measure today is to reconstruct the repaired forecast over old rows,
which is the reconstruction-vs-served trap this order refuses. Code fix
now, measurement at accrual.
PHASE 2 — MODEL_VERSION bumped to engine1@2026-08-07-fullwindow, so every
forward snapshot is self-identifying (retentionService already stamps it;
no new plumbing). model/reAuditEligibility.js encodes the rule: isEligible
accepts only the repaired marker, assess counts eligible DATES not rows,
and ACCRUAL is frozen at calibration 10 / hits-lift 10 / verdict-reaudit
14 / rbi-gate 14. A test locks the invisible case -- a MIXED table of 330
rows with 30 repaired returns eligible_dates 3, not 330 rows of false
confidence. Once both generations share a table a naive count would fit a
map on a blend of two forecasters.
PHASE 3 — the board, each consequence labelled: calibration WITHDRAWN
(refits at 10 dates, never on reconstructions); factor verdicts SUSPECT
(all measured against a champion worse than a frequency table, direction
UNKNOWN, not pre-priced, 14 dates); hits factor lift UN-REMEASURABLE (10
dates, factors still wired and transmitting); rbi lineup-slot RE-QUEUED
(14 dates). Pre-registered order: calibration, hits lift, verdict
re-audit, rbi gate.
Then STOP and accrue. Nothing further can be honestly measured until the
board fills with rows the repaired champion produced.
Serving-path changes by design for the MLB feature path and NBA/WNBA logs;
eleven frozen model modules verified unchanged. p_win never mutated. No
Bonferroni slot.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01W1sivYNqY2TS5ftykmHBU9
builtbykev
494c83cf76