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builtbykev 08e5c908e6 Takeable audit: the ledger is contaminated, and I caused it

READ-ONLY. Nothing enforced or fixed; the five challengers untouched.

VERDICT: gaps exist, and one is LIVE CONTAMINATION of the ledger -- the
exact table every accruing holdout resolves against. book, locked_odds and
the takeable flag ITSELF are being stamped from books you cannot bet: DFS
dabble (707 rows, 24% of all rows), offshore bovada (214), onexbet (42),
exchange kalshi (7, mean |odds| 1120).

0% before 2026-08-01. 47.9% on 08-01. 42.5% on 08-02. It began the day I
widened the books for display.

LEAK LOCATED, not inferred: recordPipelineGrades indexes byKey over the
FULL display-widened props list, then prefers that prop -- book:
(prop && prop.book) || g.book, and locked_odds/takeable both fall back to
oddsForSide(prop). The grade is computed on a MODEL book and the ledger row
is then re-stamped from whatever book indexed first. The takeable flag is
therefore not merely mislabelled: it is computed FROM the contaminated
price, so it is wrong on its own terms.

The served grade path is clean TODAY (428 grades, 100% MODEL books), so
dedupeProps' gate works. But MODEL_BOOKS is NOT a subset of TAKEABLE_BOOKS
-- pinnacle is model-eligible and correctly not takeable -- so the
projection may anchor to a reference line by design. Harmless while
pinnacle returns nothing; live again when it recovers.

BLAST RADIUS bounded but growing: 47 contaminated rows have already
settled (21% of settled rows since 08-01) and ~700 are still pending and
will settle into the holdouts. The damage is mostly ahead of us, which is
what makes this urgent rather than historical.

NOT VERIFIED and not claimed either way: whether the stored `line` is also
contaminated. It traces to the graded prop, but I did not check it
end-to-end; the enforcement order should.

The prediction-vs-reference distinction HOLDS and must not be collapsed:
the prediction target must be takeable, while fair_prob / consensus / edge
stay reference. The bug is not the three-way split -- it is that one write
path ignores it.

Stack sequenced in the plan: (a) takeable enforcement, (b) structural
Number(null)===0 guard (hits will re-trigger it -- its 0.5 lines make P(0)
the whole game), (c) hits. Carry-forward: tb-v1 verdict, the third
pre-registered branch, and the 100s Cloudflare timeout vs a ~115s snapshot.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QJs13VsyiSKYQP6rj3NNmc

2026-08-02 14:09:14 -04:00

6.2 KiB

Raw Blame History

TAKEABLE-ENFORCEMENT AUDIT

Date: 2026-08-02 · READ-ONLY — nothing enforced, built or fixed. The five accruing challengers were not touched.

VERDICT: 🔴 GAPS EXIST, AND ONE IS LIVE CONTAMINATION OF THE LEDGER

The ledger — the exact table every accruing holdout resolves against — is stamping book, locked_odds and the takeable flag itself from books you cannot bet: DFS pick'em, offshore, and exchanges.

0% before 2026-08-01. 47.9% on 08-01. 42.5% on 08-02.

I caused this. It started the day I widened the books for display.

Enforcement is the next order, ahead of hits.

PER-PATH ANCHOR REPORT

path	anchors to	takeable?
PROJECTION	`g.line` via `dedupeProps` → `MODEL_BOOKS`	⚠️ model-gated, not takeable-gated
GRADE	same	⚠️ same — clean in practice today
CHALLENGERS (arch-v1, tb-v1, proj-v1.1)	read off the grade	✅ inherit the grade's anchor
LEDGER	`prop.book` / `oddsForSide(prop)` over the full widened props list	🔴 CONTAMINATED
DISPLAY / RANKING	`takeablePWin` → `isTakeable(price)`	⚠️ gate is correct, but applied to a contaminated price

The grade path is clean today, but not by construction

Served snapshot, 428 grades: draftkings 422, fanduel 6 — 100% MODEL books. dedupeProps' MODEL_BOOKS filter works.

But MODEL_BOOKS ⊄ TAKEABLE_BOOKS. MODEL_BOOKS contains pinnacle, which isTakeableBook correctly excludes — it is a reference book, not a US retail one. So the projection may anchor to a reference line by design.

Currently harmless (pinnacle has returned 0 props since 07-31) and therefore exactly the kind of latent gap that bites when the feed recovers.

THE CONTAMINATION, LOCATED

ledgerService.recordPipelineGrades:

const byKey = indexProps(oddsProps);              // ← the FULL, display-widened list
const prop  = byKey[`${nameKey(player)}|${stat}`]; // ← first match wins
...
locked_odds: locked.odds != null ? String(locked.odds) : oddsForSide(prop, side),
takeable:    takeableFor(locked.odds != null ? locked.odds : oddsForSide(prop, side)),
book:        (prop && prop.book) || g.book || null,

The grade is computed on a MODEL book, then the ledger row is re-stamped from whatever book happened to index first in the widened list.

Books actually stamped on ledger rows since 2026-08-01

book	rows	role	settled
draftkings	518	✅ takeable	49
dabble	707	🔴 DFS pick'em	44
betmgm	348	✅ takeable	126
hardrockbet	298	✅ takeable	0
bovada	214	🔴 reference/offshore	3
onexbet	42	🔴 excluded	0
pinnacle	36	🔴 reference	0
kalshi	7	🔴 exchange — mean \|odds\| 1120	0

dabble alone is 24% of all rows. kalshi's mean absolute price of 1120 is a self-evident tell: no US bettor is taking that as the anchor of a graded prop.

What is confirmed contaminated, and what is not

Confirmed: book, locked_odds, and takeable — the flag is computed from the contaminated price, so it is not merely mislabelled, it is wrong on its own terms.

Not confirmed: line. It comes from locked.line/g.line, which trace to the graded (model-book) prop. I did not verify it end-to-end and am not claiming it is clean. The enforcement order should check it.

Blast radius on the accruing verdicts — bounded, but growing

	settled rows since 08-01
clean-book	178
contaminated-book	47 (21%)

Most contaminated rows have not settled yet — 707 dabble rows are pending and will settle into the holdouts tonight and tomorrow. The damage is mostly ahead of us, which is what makes this urgent rather than merely historical.

PREDICTION-TARGET vs REFERENCE-RULER — the distinction holds

Do NOT over-enforce takeable onto the reference ruler. They answer different questions and collapsing them would break market measurement:

quantity	must be	current	correct?
the line the model projects against	TAKEABLE	model-gated	⚠️ gap
the price the row is scored on (`locked_odds`)	TAKEABLE	contaminated	🔴 gap
`fair_prob` / consensus / `edge` diagnostics	REFERENCE (incl. exchanges, pinnacle)	reference	✅ correct — leave alone

bookRoles' three-way split is right and must not be collapsed. The bug is not the split — it is that one write path ignores it.

SEQUENCED STACK

(a) 🔴 TAKEABLE ENFORCEMENT — next order. Index the ledger's prop lookup over takeable books only, verify line end-to-end, decide whether pinnacle may anchor a projection (it may price the ruler, but should it price the target?), and decide what to do with the ~1,031 already-contaminated rows: re-stamp, or tag and exclude from holdouts. Do not silently pool them.

(b) Structural Number(null) === 0 guard. Six occurrences, the most recent in my own new module yesterday. A shared unknown-vs-zero helper. hits will re-trigger it — its 0.5 lines make P(0) the whole game, and a null rate read as zero is maximally wrong exactly there.

(c) hits fix — built on both invariants above, not before them.

Carry-forward: the tb-v1 verdict (accruing, slower clock) · the third pre-registered branch (improves ranking but stays low → promote and recalibrate) · the 100s Cloudflare origin timeout on a ~115s snapshot (the work completes server-side, but the trigger returns 524 — worth a flag before it is mistaken for a failure).

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