builtbykev
7b85934dc3
The platoon test's n=452 described how much of the JOIN survived, not how much data exists. There are 1,266 clean settled hits rows and zero quarantined ones. platoon_splits had been ingested from tonight's lineups only (315 players), so any hitter who settled a prop without appearing in an ingest-day lineup was silently absent from every test. Backfilled all 380 hitters (81 fetched, 0 unresolved). Re-ran on 1,059 rows, up from 452. THE DEMOTION IS THE HEADLINE. pitcher_contact_profile, the strongest proven factor in the programme (-0.0064, CI [-0.0113,-0.0014]), roughly halved to -0.0034 on more than double the sample and its corrected interval now spans zero. The Bonferroni denominator also rose to 55, which widens every interval -- but a denominator cannot move a point estimate, and that halved on its own. platoon and platoon_severity now clear the bar and are NOT promoted. Upper bound -0.0001, on season-to-date splits that contain the games they predict: measured contamination is 4.5% median, 12.4% at p90, 137% worst. I had assumed ~1%. They stay CANDIDATE pending point-in-time splits. GAME-LEVEL IS A DIFFERENT PROBLEM. game_context held zero weather rows ever -- not because the fetcher was wrong (it correctly targets Open-Meteo's archive) but because ledger_entries keys a game as mlb:2026-08-03:Away@Home and game_context keys it as mlb:823437. Every lookup missed and NULL columns read as honest absence. Third occurrence of that class. Fixed the join: 96/101 settled games now carry actual archived weather, park dimensions backfilled 15 -> 30 venues. But 928 total_bases rows sit on 47 games at 17.6 rows per game. Park and weather assign one value per game, so resampling rows would have manufactured a pass. factorGate now resamples clusters when rows carry one and judges sample against effective_n; unclustered rows keep the original path byte-for-byte. Verdict: 47 clusters < 500, and the point estimate is +0.0011 -- worse, not merely unproven. Weather needs ~57 more days. Park dimensions need never: there are 30 ballparks in MLB, so a venue-constant factor can never reach 500 independent units. That bar was built for player-level factors and does not transfer. Wind is refused. We have speed and bearing for all 96 games; we lack park orientation, and 220 degrees is blowing out at one park and in at another. Using speed alone would assert an effect while discarding the sign that decides what it is. Counter and frozen clusters untouched. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01W1sivYNqY2TS5ftykmHBU9
2 lines
54 KiB
JavaScript
2 lines
54 KiB
JavaScript
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es{constructor(e,t){super(({request:a})=>{let s=e.getUrlsToPrecacheKeys();for(let r of function*(e,{directoryIndex:t="index.html",ignoreURLParametersMatching:a=[/^utm_/,/^fbclid$/],cleanURLs:s=!0,urlManipulation:r}={}){let i=new URL(e,location.href);i.hash="",yield i.href;let n=((e,t=[])=>{for(let a of[...e.searchParams.keys()])t.some(e=>e.test(a))&&e.searchParams.delete(a);return e})(i,a);if(yield n.href,t&&n.pathname.endsWith("/")){let e=new URL(n.href);e.pathname+=t,yield e.href}if(s){let e=new URL(n.href);e.pathname+=".html",yield e.href}if(r)for(let e of r({url:i}))yield e.href}(a.url,t)){let t=s.get(r);if(t)return{cacheKey:t,integrity:e.getIntegrityForPrecacheKey(t)}}},e.precacheStrategy)}},eb=class{_precacheController;constructor({precacheController:e}){this._precacheController=e}cacheKeyWillBeUsed=async({request:e,params:t})=>{let a=t?.cacheKey||this._precacheController.getPrecacheKeyForUrl(e.url);return a?new Request(a,{headers:e.headers}):e}},ev=class{_urlsToCacheKeys=new Map;_urlsToCacheModes=new Map;_cacheKeysToIntegrities=new Map;_concurrentPrecaching;_precacheStrategy;_routes;_defaultHandlerMap;_catchHandler;_requestRules;constructor({precacheEntries:e,precacheOptions:t,skipWaiting:a=!1,importScripts:s,navigationPreload:r=!1,cacheId:n,clientsClaim:o=!1,runtimeCaching:l,offlineAnalyticsConfig:h,disableDevLogs:u=!1,fallbacks:d,requestRules:f}={}){const{precacheStrategyOptions:p,precacheRouteOptions:m,precacheMiscOptions:w}=((e,t={})=>{let{cacheName:a,plugins:s=[],fetchOptions:r,matchOptions:i,fallbackToNetwork:n,directoryIndex:o,ignoreURLParametersMatching:l,cleanURLs:h,urlManipulation:u,cleanupOutdatedCaches:d,concurrency:f=10,navigateFallback:p,navigateFallbackAllowlist:m,navigateFallbackDenylist:w}=t??{};return{precacheStrategyOptions:{cacheName:c(a),plugins:[...s,new 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a&&(i[e]=a)})(e)})({prefix:n}),a?self.skipWaiting():self.addEventListener("message",e=>{e.data&&"SKIP_WAITING"===e.data.type&&self.skipWaiting()}),o&&self.addEventListener("activate",()=>self.clients.claim()),e&&e.length>0&&this.addToPrecacheList(e),w.cleanupOutdatedCaches&&(e=>{self.addEventListener("activate",t=>{t.waitUntil(g(c(e)).then(e=>{}))})})(p.cacheName),this.registerRoute(new e_(this,m)),w.navigateFallback&&this.registerRoute(new ei(this.createHandlerBoundToUrl(w.navigateFallback),{allowlist:w.navigateFallbackAllowlist,denylist:w.navigateFallbackDenylist})),void 0!==h&&("boolean"==typeof h?h&&ew({serwist:this}):ew({...h,serwist:this})),void 0!==l){if(void 0!==d){const e=new eg({fallbackUrls:d.entries,serwist:this});l.forEach(t=>{t.handler instanceof Z&&!t.handler.plugins.some(e=>"handlerDidError"in e)&&t.handler.plugins.push(e)})}for(const e of l)this.registerCapture(e.matcher,e.handler,e.method)}u&&(self.__WB_DISABLE_DEV_LOGS=!0)}get precacheStrategy(){return this._precacheStrategy}get routes(){return this._routes}addEventListeners(){self.addEventListener("install",this.handleInstall),self.addEventListener("activate",this.handleActivate),self.addEventListener("fetch",this.handleFetch),self.addEventListener("message",this.handleCache)}addToPrecacheList(e){let t=[];for(let a of e){"string"==typeof a?t.push(a):a&&!a.integrity&&void 0===a.revision&&t.push(a.url);let{cacheKey:e,url:s}=ec(a),r="string"!=typeof a&&a.revision?"reload":"default";if(this._urlsToCacheKeys.has(s)&&this._urlsToCacheKeys.get(s)!==e)throw new l("add-to-cache-list-conflicting-entries",{firstEntry:this._urlsToCacheKeys.get(s),secondEntry:e});if("string"!=typeof a&&a.integrity){if(this._cacheKeysToIntegrities.has(e)&&this._cacheKeysToIntegrities.get(e)!==a.integrity)throw new l("add-to-cache-list-conflicting-integrities",{url:s});this._cacheKeysToIntegrities.set(e,a.integrity)}this._urlsToCacheKeys.set(s,e),this._urlsToCacheModes.set(s,r)}t.length>0&&console.warn(`Serwist is precaching URLs without revision info: ${t.join(", ")}
|
|
This is generally NOT safe. Learn more at https://bit.ly/wb-precache`)}handleInstall(e){return this.registerRequestRules(e),y(e,async()=>{let t=new eo;this.precacheStrategy.plugins.push(t),await el(this._concurrentPrecaching,Array.from(this._urlsToCacheKeys.entries()),async([t,a])=>{let s=this._cacheKeysToIntegrities.get(a),r=this._urlsToCacheModes.get(t),i=new Request(t,{integrity:s,cache:r,credentials:"same-origin"});await Promise.all(this.precacheStrategy.handleAll({event:e,request:i,url:new URL(i.url),params:{cacheKey:a}}))});let{updatedURLs:a,notUpdatedURLs:s}=t;return{updatedURLs:a,notUpdatedURLs:s}})}async registerRequestRules(e){if(this._requestRules&&e?.addRoutes)try{await e.addRoutes(this._requestRules),this._requestRules=void 0}catch(e){throw e}}handleActivate(e){return y(e,async()=>{let e=await self.caches.open(this.precacheStrategy.cacheName),t=await e.keys(),a=new Set(this._urlsToCacheKeys.values()),s=[];for(let r of t)a.has(r.url)||(await e.delete(r),s.push(r.url));return{deletedCacheRequests:s}})}handleFetch(e){let{request:t}=e,a=this.handleRequest({request:t,event:e});a&&e.respondWith(a)}handleCache(e){if(e.data&&"CACHE_URLS"===e.data.type){let{payload:t}=e.data,a=Promise.all(t.urlsToCache.map(t=>{let a;return a="string"==typeof t?new Request(t):new Request(...t),this.handleRequest({request:a,event:e})}));e.waitUntil(a),e.ports?.[0]&&a.then(()=>e.ports[0].postMessage(!0))}}setDefaultHandler(e,t="GET"){this._defaultHandlerMap.set(t,ea(e))}setCatchHandler(e){this._catchHandler=ea(e)}registerCapture(e,t,a){let s=((e,t,a)=>{if("string"==typeof e){let s=new URL(e,location.href);return new es(({url:e})=>e.href===s.href,t,a)}if(e instanceof RegExp)return new en(e,t,a);if("function"==typeof e)return new es(e,t,a);if(e instanceof es)return e;throw new l("unsupported-route-type",{moduleName:"serwist",funcName:"parseRoute",paramName:"capture"})})(e,t,a);return 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