vyndr/scripts/stagea-gate-run.js

#!/usr/bin/env node
'use strict';

/**
 * stagea-gate-run — RUN THE SKILL FEATURES THROUGH THE GATE, THEN THE COUNTER.
 *
 * The original sin was never that the challengers were badly built. It was that
 * every one of them was measured WITHOUT a validation gate, so "it didn't work"
 * and "it was never allowed to prove it works" were indistinguishable. This runs
 * the gate that spec'd for exactly this (n>=500, |r|>=0.15, p<0.05, Bonferroni)
 * over the real skill features, and only then does the head-to-head.
 *
 * THREE MEASUREMENTS, in the order that makes each one meaningful:
 *
 *   1. RAW SIGNAL — corr(feature, outcome). Does this skill input relate to
 *      whether the prop hit at all?
 *   2. MARGINAL CONTRIBUTION — corr(feature, counter residual). This is the one
 *      that matters: a feature can correlate with the outcome purely because the
 *      counter already knows it. Only the part the counter MISSES is new
 *      information, and that is what earns a place. Both go through the gate.
 *   3. HEAD-TO-HEAD — the value projection vs the live counter on listed-line
 *      accuracy, paired bootstrap, out-of-sample.
 *
 * OUT-OF-SAMPLE: skill profiles are the frozen 2026-07-21 aggregate; only games
 * AFTER that date are scored, so no profile contains the game it predicts.
 *
 * BONFERRONI DENOMINATOR is the number of features tested in this sweep — not 1.
 * Testing many and reporting the best without correction is how the S78 residual
 * scan produced six "findings" when chance alone predicts three or four.
 *
 *   SUPABASE_URL=... node scripts/stagea-gate-run.js
 */

require('dotenv').config();
const { createClient } = require('@supabase/supabase-js');
const cv = require('../src/services/model/correlateValidator');
const sk = require('../src/services/model/skillProjection');
const reg = require('../src/services/model/featureRegistry');
const mlb = require('../src/services/adapters/mlbStatsAdapter');
const { knownRate, knownNumber } = require('../src/utils/known');

const SB_URL = process.env.SUPABASE_URL;
const SB_KEY = process.env.SUPABASE_SERVICE_ROLE_KEY || process.env.SUPABASE_SERVICE_KEY;
const PAGE = 1000;
const GAMES_SO_FAR = Number(process.env.STAGEA_GAMES_SO_FAR || 103);

const r4 = (v) => (v == null || !Number.isFinite(v) ? null : Math.round(v * 10000) / 10000);
const mean = (a) => (a.length ? a.reduce((x, y) => x + y, 0) / a.length : null);
const brier = (ps, ys) => (ps.length ? ps.reduce((s, p, i) => s + (p - ys[i]) ** 2, 0) / ps.length : null);

function makeRnd(seed) {
  let s = seed >>> 0;
  return () => { s ^= s << 13; s >>>= 0; s ^= s >>> 17; s ^= s << 5; s >>>= 0; return s / 4294967296; };
}
function corrOf(xs, ys) { return cv.pearson(xs, ys).r; }

function bootstrapDiff(rows, keyA, keyB, iters = 4000, seed = 20260803) {
  if (rows.length < 30) return null;
  const rnd = makeRnd(seed);
  const n = rows.length;
  const diffs = [];
  for (let it = 0; it < iters; it += 1) {
    const ys = []; const a = []; const b = [];
    for (let i = 0; i < n; i += 1) {
      const r = rows[Math.floor(rnd() * n)];
      ys.push(r.won); a.push(r[keyA]); b.push(r[keyB]);
    }
    const ca = corrOf(a, ys); const cb = corrOf(b, ys);
    if (ca == null || cb == null) continue;
    diffs.push(ca - cb);
  }
  if (diffs.length < 100) return null;
  diffs.sort((x, y) => x - y);
  const q = (p) => r4(diffs[Math.floor(p * (diffs.length - 1))]);
  const ci = [q(0.025), q(0.975)];
  return {
    point: r4(corrOf(rows.map((r) => r[keyA]), rows.map((r) => r.won))
      - corrOf(rows.map((r) => r[keyB]), rows.map((r) => r.won))),
    ci95: ci, ci_excludes_zero: ci[0] > 0 || ci[1] < 0,
  };
}

async function page(sb, table, select, apply) {
  const out = [];
  for (let from = 0; ; from += PAGE) {
    const { data, error } = await apply(sb.from(table).select(select)).range(from, from + PAGE - 1);
    if (error) throw error;
    if (!data || data.length === 0) break;
    out.push(...data);
    if (data.length < PAGE) break;
  }
  return out;
}

async function opposingStarters(dates) {
  const m = new Map();
  for (const d of dates) {
    let games = [];
    try { games = await mlb.getScheduleWithPitchers(d); } catch { games = []; }
    for (const g of games) {
      if (!g.home || !g.away) continue;
      if (g.home.probablePitcher) m.set(`${d}|OPP:${g.home.team}`, g.home.probablePitcher.id);
      if (g.away.probablePitcher) m.set(`${d}|OPP:${g.away.team}`, g.away.probablePitcher.id);
    }
  }
  return m;
}

/** `playerKey|date` → opponent faced. The ledger's team/opponent are NULL. */
async function opponentByPlayerDate(players) {
  const map = new Map();
  for (const [key, name] of players) {
    try {
      const found = await mlb.searchPlayer(name);
      if (!found || !found.id) continue;
      const log = await mlb.getPlayerGameLog(found.id);
      for (const g of log || []) {
        if (g && g.date && g.opponent) map.set(`${key}|${String(g.date).slice(0, 10)}`, g.opponent);
      }
    } catch { /* no log → no pitcher for those rows */ }
  }
  return map;
}

async function main() {
  if (!SB_URL || !SB_KEY) throw new Error('SUPABASE_URL / service key required');
  const sb = createClient(SB_URL, SB_KEY, { auth: { persistSession: false } });

  const statcast = await page(sb, 'statcast_aggregates', '*', (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb'));
  const freezeDate = statcast.reduce((mx, r) => (String(r.updated_at) > mx ? String(r.updated_at) : mx), '').slice(0, 10);
  const batters = new Map(); const pitchersById = new Map();
  for (const r of statcast) {
    if (r.role === 'pitcher' && r.source_id != null) pitchersById.set(Number(r.source_id), sk.fromStatcastRow(r));
    if (r.player_key && r.role === 'batter') {
      const prev = batters.get(r.player_key);
      if (!prev || Number(r.sample_pa || 0) > Number(prev.rawPa || 0)) {
        batters.set(r.player_key, Object.assign(sk.fromStatcastRow(r), { rawPa: Number(r.sample_pa || 0) }));
      }
    }
  }

  const led = await page(sb, 'ledger_entries',
    'player_key, player_name, stat, line, side, outcome, game_date, p_win, quarantine_reason',
    (q) => q.eq('sport', 'mlb').is('user_id', null)
      .in('stat', ['hits', 'total_bases'])
      .in('outcome', ['hit', 'miss']).not('p_win', 'is', null));

  const clean = led.filter((r) => !(r.quarantine_reason || '').startsWith('nontakeable_book')
    && String(r.game_date) > freezeDate);

  const dates = [...new Set(clean.map((r) => r.game_date))].sort();
  const starters = await opposingStarters(dates);
  const players = new Map();
  for (const r of clean) if (!players.has(r.player_key)) players.set(r.player_key, r.player_name);
  const oppByPlayerDate = await opponentByPlayerDate(players);

  const allowed = reg.candidateFeatures('mlb');
  const rows = [];
  for (const r of clean) {
    const bat = batters.get(r.player_key);
    if (!bat) continue;
    const faced = oppByPlayerDate.get(`${r.player_key}|${r.game_date}`) || null;
    const pit = faced ? pitchersById.get(Number(starters.get(`${r.game_date}|OPP:${faced}`))) || null : null;
    const paRate = bat.rawPa > 0 ? Math.min(5.2, Math.max(2.0, bat.rawPa / GAMES_SO_FAR)) : null;
    const under = String(r.side).toLowerCase() === 'under';
    const won = r.outcome === 'hit' ? 1 : 0;
    const champ = Number(r.p_win);

    // The value projection (hits only — TB is refused by design, see skillProjection).
    const proj = r.stat === 'hits'
      ? sk.projectSkill({ batter: bat, pitcher: pit, park: 1, archetype: null,
        statType: 'hits', line: Number(r.line), expectedPa: paRate, allowed })
      : null;

    rows.push({
      stat: r.stat, won, champ,
      skill: proj ? (under ? 1 - proj.p_over_line : proj.p_over_line) : null,
      residual: won - champ,
      had_pitcher: !!pit,
      // Candidate skill features, archetype-relevant, in probability space.
      batter_barrel_pct: knownRate(bat.barrel_pct),
      batter_hard_hit_pct: knownRate(bat.hard_hit_pct),
      batter_exit_velo: knownRate(bat.avg_exit_velo),
      batter_launch_angle: knownRate(bat.avg_launch_angle),
      batter_k_pct: knownRate(bat.k_pct),
      batter_bb_pct: knownRate(bat.bb_pct),
      pitcher_k_pct: pit ? knownRate(pit.k_pct) : null,
      pitcher_hard_hit_allowed: pit ? knownRate(pit.hard_hit_pct) : null,
    });
  }

  const FEATURES = ['batter_barrel_pct', 'batter_hard_hit_pct', 'batter_exit_velo',
    'batter_launch_angle', 'batter_k_pct', 'batter_bb_pct',
    'pitcher_k_pct', 'pitcher_hard_hit_allowed'];

  const perStat = {};
  for (const stat of ['hits', 'total_bases']) {
    const rs = rows.filter((r) => r.stat === stat);
    if (rs.length === 0) continue;
    const tests = FEATURES.length;   // the Bonferroni denominator for THIS sweep
    const gate = {};
    for (const f of FEATURES) {
      const xs = rs.map((r) => r[f]);
      gate[f] = {
        // 1. does it relate to the outcome at all?
        raw_vs_outcome: cv.validateFactor(xs, rs.map((r) => r.won), tests),
        // 2. THE ONE THAT COUNTS — is any of it NEW, i.e. missed by the counter?
        marginal_vs_counter_residual: cv.validateFactor(xs, rs.map((r) => r.residual), tests),
      };
    }
    const passed = FEATURES.filter((f) => gate[f].marginal_vs_counter_residual.validated);
    perStat[stat] = {
      n: rs.length,
      base_rate: r4(mean(rs.map((r) => r.won))),
      bonferroni_tests: tests,
      features_passing_gate_on_marginal: passed,
      gate,
    };
  }

  // HEAD-TO-HEAD — hits only (the value engine covers hits).
  const h2h = rows.filter((r) => r.stat === 'hits' && r.skill != null);
  const ys = h2h.map((r) => r.won);
  const bs = bootstrapDiff(h2h, 'skill', 'champ');

  console.log(JSON.stringify({
    premise_correction: 'statModel.js and correlateValidator.js do not exist in this repo. The gate was implemented to the spec in src/services/python/blueprints/unconventional.py (VALIDATION_REQUIREMENTS); supplementSystems.test.js inlines its own validateFactor and imports no implementation.',
    out_of_sample: `skill profiles frozen ${freezeDate}; only game_date > ${freezeDate} scored`,
    gate_spec: cv.VALIDATION_REQUIREMENTS,
    per_stat_gate: perStat,
    head_to_head_hits: {
      n: h2h.length,
      pitcher_coverage: r4(mean(h2h.map((r) => (r.had_pitcher ? 1 : 0)))),
      base_rate: r4(mean(ys)),
      resolution: { value_engine: r4(corrOf(h2h.map((r) => r.skill), ys)), counter: r4(corrOf(h2h.map((r) => r.champ), ys)) },
      brier: { value_engine: r4(brier(h2h.map((r) => r.skill), ys)), counter: r4(brier(h2h.map((r) => r.champ), ys)) },
      delta: bs,
      verdict: !bs ? 'N-BLOCKED'
        : (bs.ci_excludes_zero && bs.point > 0) ? 'VALUE ENGINE BEATS THE COUNTER'
          : (bs.ci_excludes_zero && bs.point < 0) ? 'LOSES to the counter — iterate, do not promote'
            : 'INCONCLUSIVE — do not promote',
    },
  }, null, 2));
  process.exit(0);
}

main().catch((e) => { console.error(e); process.exit(1); });