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vyndr/specs/vyndr-roadmap.md
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builtbykev d10bb4cce2 Session 59: Addendum + work-order 1.6 + Phase 2 + Phase 3 (2352 tests) 
Overnight sprint for the Saturday 10 AM ET deploy gate — day one of the
public ledger record locks against freshly posted lines.

Task A — ledger team/opponent (migration 020, applied at 0 rows):
  populated in both write paths from the real feed; opponent only when the
  player's team matches a game participant (never guessed). Roadmap: Phase
  4.5 WNBA ESPN-boxscore settlement (due ~Jul 24) + Phase 5 per-tier
  calibration logged.

Task B — work-order 1.6 CLOSED (canonical player keys):
  - searchPlayer resolves via nameKey; the old matcher deleted accents
    ("Sanchez" with acute -> "snchez") and substring-guessed onto the WRONG
    player (the mismatched last-10 bug). Ambiguous -> null, never guess.
  - Slate JOIN INVARIANT: a graded prop whose player's real team isn't in
    the game is dropped (TB player can't render under MIL@PIT) — locked by
    tests that fail the suite on regression.
  - grades:{sport} TTL 2h -> 6h (expired between 5h cron gaps — the real
    cause of /team "No active props" for slate players).

Task C — Phase 2 slate UX: tabs are THE filter (URL ?sport=, deep-linkable,
  duplicate legacy tablist removed); cards cap at 6 graded props sorted
  A+->F with ALL N READS in-place expander; waiting states show the real
  next pipeline run ("Grades post ~6:00 PM ET").

Task D — Phase 3 mobile P0: root cause of vanished 390px nav was HIDE_ON
  including '/' (landing had zero navigation) — fixed; html/body overflow-x
  contained; GAME LINES collapses to best-line summary + "N BOOKS" expander
  below 640px; venue drops before time/pitchers ever truncate.

Live verification: raw ESPN today STILL returns the Jun 13 NYK@SA Finals
game without a date pin; the pinned fetch returns 0 games, 0 off-date.

Backend 2327 -> 2352 tests (202 suites), web build exit 0.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-10 22:24:47 -04:00

7.6 KiB
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VYNDR Master Roadmap — Generated 2026-07-10 (Session 56)

The foundation document. Derived from the Session-56 data audit (specs/propline-audit.md, verified against live MLB Stats / ESPN / Odds APIs). Every session after this references it. Update it as sessions ship.

Current coverage (verified 2026-07-10)

Sport Odds props Grading Features (l5/l20) Outcomes settled Status
MLB ✅ PropLine + odds-api ✅ ✅ real (statsapi) ✅ (S55, expanded S56) LIVE
WNBA ✅ odds-api/PropLine ✅ ⚠️ Python offline → thin ❌ PARTIAL
Soccer ✅ odds-api only (no PropLine) ⚠️ extractor only ⚠️ ❌ PARTIAL
NBA ⚠️ summer league only ✅ ⚠️ offline ❌ OFF-SEASON (Oct)
NFL ⚠️ preseason ⚠️ mapped, not e2e ❌ ❌ PRE-SEASON (Sep)
NHL ❌ off-season ⚠️ mapped ❌ ❌ DARK (Oct)

The core product is MLB. It is the only sport that is live end-to-end (odds → grade → real features → settled accuracy). Everything else is a build-out target.

Gap analysis (from the audit)

  1. Outcome settlement is MLB-only — WNBA/NBA/soccer grades never settle, so the accuracy record (the S55 trust engine) only reflects MLB. Highest-value gap. Needs the ESPN box-score settle path (espnStatsAdapter already parses the shape for season avgs).
  2. NBA/WNBA features depend on an offline Python nba_api service — l5/l20 are often empty; only season avgs survive (ESPN fallback). Needs an ESPN game-log feature path so intel populates without the Python service.
  3. Soccer has no PropLine source — odds-api backup only; no SPORT_KEYS entry. Soccer grading isn't wired into the snapshot pipeline end-to-end.
  4. NFL mapped but not graded end-to-end — markets normalize, but no feature/ outcome path. Wire before September.
  5. RBI silent-failure (rbis/rbi) — FIXED S56.
  6. Under-requesting MLB markets — FIXED S56 (6 → 12 markets).
  7. No pipeline alerting / retry / missed-cron — FIXED S56.
  8. No live calibration — the accuracy record exists but doesn't yet feed back into grade confidence (spec 2.3 from S55).
  9. batter_strikeouts (batter Ks) mapped but not feature/settle-wired.

Session plan (priority-ordered)

Session Focus Ships Scope
57 WNBA/NBA outcome settlement ESPN box-score settle path in outcomeService → accuracy for basketball; WNBA goes fully live M
58 ESPN game-log features l5/l10/l20 for NBA/WNBA without the Python service → real intel on basketball grade cards M
59 Soccer end-to-end soccer into the snapshot pipeline (odds-api source), feature extractor wired, ESPN settle L
60 Live calibration accuracy record feeds grade-confidence adjustment (under/over-confident tiers nudge); "Model health: Calibrated/Learning" indicator M
61 NFL pre-season prep NFL feature + settle path (ESPN NFL boxscore) so Week 1 (Sep) is live L
62 Prop breadth batter_strikeouts, triples, pitcher walks; NBA pra/turnovers requested; WNBA extra markets S
63 Accuracy depth per-archetype hit rates, per-stat hit rates, player-level record ("VYNDR on Judge: 12-5"); ledger UI M
64 NBA regular-season readiness verify NBA pipeline for the Oct tip-off; depth-chart/cascade live M

Scope key: S ≈ ½ session, M ≈ 1 session, L ≈ 1–2 sessions.

NOTE (Session 58): the numbered plan above predates the overhaul work order. The work order's phases (0 = kill the lies ✅ S57, 1 = truth infrastructure ✅ S58, 2 = slate UX, 3 = mobile, 2.5 below, 4 = scan/ parlay, 5 = records, 6 = landing/content) take sequencing priority; the table's items slot in where they don't conflict.

Phase 2.5 — Intraday line refresh + directional movement (LOGGED Session 58)

Authoritative scope from the Phase 1 GO prompt. Build after Phase 3 (mobile), before Phase 4. During slate hours (~noon–midnight ET):

  • Lightweight ODDS-ONLY refresh every 15–30 min (no full re-grade run). Recompute the signed delta per graded prop RELATIVE TO THE GRADED SIDE — direction is the signal, not magnitude alone.
  • Moved WITH the grade (market chasing our number): PropRow badge STEAM ▲ +N. Good for the record; entry edge compressed. No re-grade.
  • Moved AGAINST the grade ≥ 1.0 (or odds-equivalent): auto re-grade THAT PROP ONLY.
    • Grade holds → badge VALUE ▲ better entry (better number, same read).
    • Grade drops → update the grade with revised_from_grade set (column already exists in ledger_entries) + a visible revision marker (original grade struck through — the ledger UI already renders it). Revisions are ALWAYS public — never silently regrade, per Ledger ethos.
  • All displayed lines remain real book values from the refresh — the refresh CAPTURES market numbers, never computes them.
  • After ship: drop SNAPSHOT_EXPECTED_INTERVAL to the refresh cadence — the HeartbeatBar SYNC badge (normal <1.5x · amber ≥1.5x · STALE ≥3x) goes genuinely live with zero further UI changes.

Phase 4.5 — WNBA settlement via ESPN box scores (DUE DATE, not "roadmap")

Logged Session 59. Pending-forever WNBA ledger rows are honest but become a credibility hole past ~2 weeks of accumulation. Due: within 2 weeks of day one of the public record (by ~Jul 24 2026). Scope: ESPN box-score settle path in outcomeService + ledgerService defaultGetPlayerStats (WNBA branch) so WNBA rows settle nightly like MLB. Build right after Phase 4 (scan/parlay polish).

Phase 5 addition — calibration by grade tier (logged Session 59)

Once settles mature: the MODEL tab shows A-tier hit% vs B-tier hit% SEPARATELY (same n≥20 rule PER TIER — a tier below threshold shows "building", never a %). The separation between tiers is the proof the grades mean something. ledger_entries.grade already carries the tier; this is an aggregate + UI change only.

Stat-type coverage target (fully built)

  • MLB (batters): hits, total_bases, home_runs, rbi, runs, doubles, triples, walks, stolen_bases, batter_strikeouts. (pitchers): strikeouts, earned_runs, hits_allowed, innings_pitched, outs, walks. (Bold-new this session: doubles, triples, outs, runs, walks requested + settleable.)
  • NBA/WNBA: points, rebounds, assists, threes, steals, blocks, turnovers, pra.
  • Soccer: goals, shots, shots_on_target, tackles, cards, corners, saves, passes, clean_sheet.
  • NFL: passing/rushing/receiving yards, receptions, pass/rush/rec TDs, anytime_td, interceptions, kicking_points.

Sport coverage target

  • MLB ✅ live now (settled accuracy).
  • WNBA → live after S57 (settlement) + S58 (features).
  • Soccer → live after S59.
  • NFL → ready for September (S61).
  • NBA → ready for October (S64).
  • NHL → ready for October (fast-follow once NBA path exists; shares ESPN pattern).

Operating invariants (do not regress)

  • Three stat_type whitelists stay in sync: routes/analyze.js, routes/scan.js, python/utils/validation.py.
  • A requested market MUST have a MARKET_MAP entry (else silent zero) AND, if MLB, a MLB_LOG_FIELD entry in BOTH featureCache and outcomeService (else no features / no settlement).
  • The accuracy pill stays HONEST — "LEARNING" below MIN_SAMPLE, never a faked %.
  • Pipeline alerts (ntfy) fire on success/failure/stale/overdue; the status probe (GET /api/internal/snapshot/status) exposes overdue.
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