builtbykev
dbc1416485
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QJs13VsyiSKYQP6rj3NNmc
57 KiB
VYNDR — PRODUCT COMPLETION MATRIX
Canonical board. Supersedes STATE.md's narrative. Re-derived from repo (b0a51c8),
prod (api.vyndr.app / vyndr.app, checked 2026-07-27), and the design bundle
(specs/design-reference/*). Every cell cites a file, a route, or a prod check.
DONE = all five YES: DESIGNED (spec exists) · BUILT (code exists) · WIRED (a user can reach it) · LIVE (serving in prod now) · HONEST (real data, not fabricated/inflated/ placeholder). A built-but-unrouted component is WIRED: NO regardless of code quality.
HONESTY PASS applied 2026-07-27 (
6bc18d8): every KNOWN live fabrication removed/hidden — see the "HONESTY PASS" section at the end. HONEST cells for rows 19/20/24 updated (✓).
SURFACE MATRIX — 16 of ~26 fully done (Book Comparison wired 2026-07-29)
| # | Surface | DESIGNED | BUILT | WIRED | LIVE | HONEST | DONE | Evidence / what's missing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Landing / hero | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | ✅ | Landing.dc.html; app/page.tsx; nav logo; prod /→200; Hero/TopSignals/ClaimMeter/ModelRecord all fetch real + self-hide |
| 2 | Dashboard / Slate | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | ✅ | Mobile.dc.html; Slate.tsx+vyndr/GameCard; Nav "Slate"; prod /dashboard→200; snapshot grades real (wnba 25/mlb 5 today) |
| 3 | Scan flow (S6/S7) | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | ✅ | Scanner States.dc.html; scan/page.tsx+ProcessingGrade; Nav "Read"; prod 200; real grade, honest NoMarketState |
| 4 | Grade result card | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | ✅ | System.dc.html reveal; GradeResultCard.tsx (3 importers); /scan; real grade. Sub-sections (alt ladder, books) gated/absent — see #17/#18 |
| 5 | Grade display / badge | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | ✅ | HANDOFF.md:41; GradeBadge.tsx; dashboard/scan/many; prod grades B/C real, no fake A |
| 6 | Ledger | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | ✅ | Intelligence.dc.html S4; ledger/page.tsx+ClvBadge; Nav "Ledger"; prod 200; n≥20 gate honored |
| 7 | Tier-record | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES* | ✅ | HANDOFF.md:33; TierRecord.tsx (6 routes); n≥20 gate. *A-tier "edge glow" is ranking-as-credibility, not proven ROI (honest-but-thin) |
| 8 | Pricing | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | ✅ | Mobile.dc.html; Pricing.tsx+ClaimMeter+DeskShowcase; Nav/Footer; prod 200; Stripe real, mocks removed |
| 9 | Public profile /u |
YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | ✅ | System.dc.html /u; PublicProfile.tsx; OPEN_ROUTE share link; prod /api/profiles/test→404 (privacy honest) |
| 10 | Player profile | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | ✅ | Mobile.dc.html PLAYER; player/[name]; reachable via playerHref links; prod /api/stats/player→found:true (archetype/propDNA/season) |
| 11 | Team hub | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES* | ✅ | Mobile.dc.html TEAM HUB; TeamHub.tsx; TeamLink on cards; prod /api/team/NYY→26 roster. *MLB real; NBA/WNBA partial roster |
| 12 | Explore | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | ✅ | Intelligence.dc.html; ExploreHub.tsx+FuturesBoard/NewsWire; Nav; prod 200; real leaders/futures, "TRACKED·NOT GRADED" label |
| 13 | WIRE / ticker | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | ✅ | System.dc.html WIRE; vyndr/Ticker.tsx; root layout; prod /api/ticker→30 real items |
| 14 | Streaks / hot list | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | ✅ | System.dc.html; landing panels + Explore; prod /api/streaks/mlb→240 (computed), self-hide honest |
| 15 | Live tracking | PARTIAL | YES | YES | YES | YES | ⚠️ | liveTrackingService+StatStrip.LiveTracker; Slate polls /api/live; prod hasLive:false now (valid empty). DESIGNED: no dedicated bundle artboard |
| 16 | Parlay lab | PARTIAL | YES | YES | YES | YES | ⚠️ | System.dc.html PARLAY BUILDER (not named "Lab"); parlay/page.tsx+ParlayPanel; #parlay drawer; prod /api/parlay/grade→real A- |
| 17 | Alt-line ladder | PARTIAL | YES | PARTIAL | YES | YES | ❌ | Champion alt_lines real (prod: 5 rungs w/ edge_pct) but Desk-tier only (tierGating.js:55); proj-v1 proj_ladder ledger-only. DESIGNED: only Offseason grouping, no prop alt-stack |
| 18 | Book comparison (S2) | YES | YES | YES✓ | YES | YES | ✅ | ✓WIRED 2026-07-29: BookComparisonPanel (self-fetches /api/books) on the GradeResultCard; renders per-book lines (books differ), single-book honest state, crown OFF (BOOK_CROWN_ENABLED=false, no best claim). Push-to-book + movement strip deliberately HELD |
| 19 | Price triplet | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES✓ | ❌ | ✓HONESTY PASS: null model/EV now NO_MODEL (honest-absent), no false "poisoned" copy. Still ❌: EV layer doesn't produce model_odds/ev (separate build) |
| 20 | Compare (H2H) | PARTIAL | in-dev | NO | YES | YES✓ | ❌ | ✓HONESTY PASS: fabrication removed → honest in-development state, pulled from Nav+BottomTabBar. Real two-player build pending (awaiting real build) |
| 21 | Newsletter | YES | YES | YES | PARTIAL | YES | ❌ | NewsletterCapture.tsx on /,/welcome; subscribe validates live; send internal-only. LIVE: Listmonk env config CANNOT DETERMINE from prod |
| 22 | Slip reader | PARTIAL | YES | PARTIAL | YES | YES | ❌ | slip/page.tsx; prod 200; 0 nav links → orphan (deep-link only). DESIGNED: a1-s9 spec, not the design bundle |
| 23 | Article media / share (S3) | YES | PARTIAL | NO | PARTIAL | YES | ❌ | Intelligence.dc.html ARTICLE MEDIA; ShareCard.tsx 0 real importers = DEAD; OG opengraph-image.tsx IS live. In-article archetype figures not built |
| 24 | Calibration / edge board | YES | YES | NO | NO | YES✓ | ❌ | ✓HONESTY PASS: placeholder-edge% MobileEdgeBoard REMOVED from the Slate (phones show real cards). Component kept as dead code until a real edge feed exists |
| 25 | System / Intelligence terminal | YES | YES | NO | PARTIAL | YES | ❌ | System.dc.html/Intelligence.dc.html; /terminal→redirect to /dashboard; /intelligence REAL but orphan (0 nav links); /system no page (prod 404) |
| 26 | Offseason hub (S-2) | YES | PARTIAL | NO | NO | — | ❌ | Offseason.dc.html full spec; no /offseason page (prod 404); logic only inline in FuturesBoard/NewsWire on Explore |
Prod endpoints confirmed LIVE + real: /api/snapshot/{mlb,wnba}, /api/accuracy (n=763),
/api/ledger/accuracy, /api/ticker, /api/books/mlb, /api/streaks, /api/hotlist,
/api/live, /api/schedule, /api/stats/{player,leaders}, /api/team, /api/parlay/grade.
MODEL MATRIX — champion serves; every challenger is ledger-only
| Component | EXISTS | PROVEN | PROMOTED (serving) | USED (a surface reads it) | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Champion (engine1) | YES | PARTIAL→promising | YES | YES | analyzeViaEngine1.js; enriched→snapshot/grades. SKEW AUDIT 2026-07-29: on takeable MLB overs (n=62) champion p_win→CLV partial r=0.375, SIG p≈0.003; SURVIVES the mechanical baseline (no-edge CLV +1.5pt n=20 vs high-edge +8.6pt n=37 → +7.1pt marginal). De-vig clean (same-book pairing); close well-defined (DK/MGM r=0.92). PROMISING, NOT confirmed (thin n; lock-staleness check BLOCKED; 1 sig result among many) |
| arch-v1 | YES | NO | NO | NO | challengerProjection.js; rides withChallenger→ledger only (:693). "measured, never served" (ledgerService.js:251) |
| contact-v1 | YES | NO | NO | NO | contactChallenger.js; ledger col p_win_contact only |
| proj-v1 / v1.1 | YES | NO (tested 2026-07-29) | NO | NO | projectionChallenger.js (MLB-batting only). PROOF ORDER verdict: NOT PROVEN on n=45 takeable MLB overs — edge-CLV partial-r (controlling price) = 0.245 (n.s.); ~half the raw signal is the shared −fair_prob_lock term (mechanical); and the CHAMPION out-predicts it (champ partial-CLV 0.380 sig, champ-edge→hit 0.25 vs proj 0.12). Ledger-only |
| Champion alt-ladder | YES | NO | YES | Desk-only | analyzeViaEngine1.js:486; real re-grades ±1 line; gradeAdapter.js:100 maps to card Desk-gated |
proj-v1 proj_ladder |
YES | NO | NO | NO | distribution.js:100; ledger-only, reaches no card |
| Price gate / EV | YES | PARTIAL | PARTIAL | PARTIAL | fields on enriched; hero gates on isTakeable+ev_pct (heroPropService.js:78). But prod grades show ev_pct/p_win/model_odds/value/takeable = NULL — built, served-schema, not producing |
Ladder question (Phase 2.6) — VERIFIED: proj-v1.1 DOES compute rungs above the line
projection/distribution.js:100 ladder() computes P(stat ≥ k) for a fixed rung set
k = 1..LADDER_MAX (default 4), independent of the listed line — so for a line of 1.5
(tradedRung=2) it emits rungs 1 (below), 2 (at), 3 and 4 (ABOVE), each a real
negative-binomial survival prob (projectionChallenger.js:183,200). "Ladder-up works"
— sole cap is LADDER_MAX=4. BUT proj_ladder is ledger-only and reaches no user
surface. So "ladder up from the listed line to find value" is computed and never wired.
HONEST-STATE SUMMARY
3.7 — What a PAYING USER sees right now that is not true
/compare— fabricated grades, nav-linked + public. Hardcoded Jokić A+ / Wembanyama A + fake "VYNDR VERDICT" (compare/page.tsx:10-62). No data behind it. The single worst live lie.- FAQ — phantom processor. "We use NexaPay" (
FAQ.tsx:28); every legal/pricing page says Stripe. Also founder price inconsistency ($24.99 vs $19.99). - FAQ + Features — Brier/CLV over-claim. "Brier score and CLV… published / from day one · Public accuracy by tier" (
FAQ.tsx:498,Features.tsx:323). No Brier surfaced anywhere; CLV held.CANNOT DETERMINEa live Brier surface — because none exists. - Mobile edge board — placeholder edge%.
MobileEdgeBoard.tsx:44renders a miscalibrated edge feed, masking >40% to "—". The numbers ≤40% still come from a placeholder pipeline. Live on mobile Slate. - Price triplet / EV markers advertised-and-absent. Grade schema carries
ev_pct/p_win/model_odds/value/takeable; all NULL on live grades — the "model price" leg and VALUE marker don't render though the design promises them.
Not inflated (verified honest): grades are B/C only with A/D/F below n≥20 → pct:null everywhere; AccuracyBadge/ModelRecord/TierRecord/ledger all honor the n≥20 gate and self-hide. Hit-rate (59%, n=763) shows without ROI/CLV (CLV frequently null) — thin, not false.
3.8 — The graveyard (built, no user can reach it)
BookComparison.tsx— 0 importers. Backend/api/booksis live + honest; nothing renders it. (S2 headliner.)ShareCard.tsx— 0 real importers (S3 share cards).components/GameCard.tsx(legacy) — type-only import; superseded byvyndr/GameCard.- proj-v1
proj_ladder— the above-line probability ladder; computed, ledger-only, never served. - arch-v1 + contact-v1 — challengers, ledger-only, never served ("measured, never served").
TerminalTemplates.tsx— all SAMPLE data;/terminalredirects → effectively unrouted.DemoScan.tsx— defined, never rendered./intelligence— REAL signals feed, but 0 nav links (orphan; reachable only by typing the URL)./soccer,/marketplace— REAL pages, 0 nav links (orphans)./notifications—RouteStub, unreachable.- Offseason hub — full design spec, no page built (prod
/offseason→404).
FULLY DONE (all five YES) — 15
Landing · Dashboard/Slate · Scan flow · Grade result card · Grade badge · Ledger ·
Tier-record · Pricing · Public profile /u · Player profile · Team hub · Explore ·
WIRE/Ticker · Streaks/Hot list · Live tracking.
NEAREST TO DONE (one column from YES) — the shortlist a single order could finish
| Surface | The one gap | Finish move |
|---|---|---|
| Book comparison (S2) | WIRED: NO | Route BookComparison.tsx onto the card from the live /api/books store (crown stays off — measured flat). Backend already shipped. |
| Parlay lab | DESIGNED: PARTIAL | Accept the System "PARLAY BUILDER" spec as the lab spec (functionally live) — a doc call, not a build. |
| Compare (H2H) | HONEST: NO | Replace the hardcoded SAMPLE with a real two-player fetch, or pull it from nav until real. |
| Price triplet | HONEST: PARTIAL | Make the price-aware EV layer actually produce p_win/ev_pct/model_odds on served grades (built, not firing). |
| Newsletter | LIVE: PARTIAL | Confirm/enable Listmonk env (config CANNOT DETERMINE from outside). |
| Slip reader | WIRED: PARTIAL | Add one nav/More-sheet link (page is live + honest). |
| Calibration / edge board | HONEST: NO | Fix the placeholder edge% feed (backend), or hide the board until real. |
Two-plus columns out (bigger builds): Alt-line ladder (design + wire the served
probability ladder), System/Intelligence terminal (wire the orphan /intelligence),
Article media/S3 (build in-article figures; ShareCard dead), Offseason hub
(no page at all).
Tags: all cells VERIFIED against repo/prod/bundle except — Newsletter LIVE (Listmonk env) and a live Brier surface = CANNOT DETERMINE (none found). Nothing BLOCKED.
HONESTY PASS — applied 2026-07-27 (commit 6bc18d8, deployed)
Removed/hid every KNOWN live fabrication. REMOVE/HIDE only — no grade, snapshot, scorer, pipeline, or real feature touched. Updated HONEST cells:
| Item | Was | Now |
|---|---|---|
| /compare (row 20) | HONEST: NO — hardcoded Jokić A+/Wembanyama A + fake VERDICT, nav-linked | Honest in-development state; removed from Nav + BottomTabBar. Real two-player build pulled, awaiting real build. |
| Pricing (founder copy) | $34.99 desk / struck $19.99 / FAQ $24.99 — wrong | Founder Desk $44.99 (matches lib/checkout.js), Analyst $14.99; struck "regular" numbers removed; DeskShowcase $34.99→$44.99. First-100 counter is REAL (ClaimMeter→Stripe). No "first 50" desk claim (no such counter). |
| FAQ processor | "NexaPay" | Stripe (verified live: Next→Express→checkout.stripe.com). nexapay.ts + its webhook route were PURGED 2026-07-27 (NexaPay Purge order) — cross-project contamination, never a real VYNDR path. Provider-side env/keys + the orphaned user_profiles.nexapay_customer_id column flagged for Kev. |
| FAQ + Features "Brier/CLV published from day one" | INFLATED (not surfaced) | Removed. Returns when Brier/CLV are actually surfaced. Backend Brier compute untouched. |
| Calibration / edge board (row 24) | HONEST: NO — MobileEdgeBoard placeholder edge% (masked >40%) | Removed from the Slate; phones show the real game cards. Component kept as dead code (hidden, not deleted) until a real edge feed exists. |
| Price triplet (row 19) | HONEST: PARTIAL — null model/EV rendered "MODEL READ WITHHELD · poisoned" (false quarantine) | New NO_MODEL honest-absent state: MODEL "—" / "NOT PRICED", no verdict. Fixes grade card + LiveHeroProp. EV layer still doesn't produce values (separate build). |
KEPT ON THE BOARD (real work to finish — NOT cut)
- Article media / S3 (row 23) — real feature + free SEO/distribution. Finish, don't delete. Only the false "Brier/CLV" claim about it was corrected.
- Newsletter / THE WIRE (row 21, 13) — real. Capture live, honest.
FUTURE MODEL INPUT (logged only — not built this order)
- News / line-movement signal — injuries, scratches, lineups, weather move props before books reprice. Wire later as a model input. This is ADDITIVE to the media surfaces, not a replacement for them.
KNOWN HONESTY GAPS (not fixed this order — logged, not fabrication)
- Hit rate 59% (n=763) shown without ROI/CLV — thin, not false. ROI/CLV surfacing is a later build.
- "0 pushes = mis-scoring" — RETIRED 2026-07-29 as a false alarm (premise re-verified, report-only). The displayed hit/miss denominators are NOT corrupted by a hidden push bug: the feed is still 100% half-numbers (0 whole lines in 117,970 captured market lines / 6,050 snapshots / 1,141 ledger rows / 173 lock_lines), all 992 settled actuals are integers, and the smallest actual-vs-line gap in the whole ledger is 0.5. Expected pushes = exactly 0. See the verdict block below.
- CLV instrument REPAIRED 2026-07-28 (commit
6552281). Was: 59 usable closing_prob. Now: 406 (MLB 248, WNBA 158) — the collapse wasattachClosingProb's.limit(50000)/no-ORDER-BY read + write-oncemarket_unavailable, NOT capture (95% per-prop coverage) or the join (0 key mismatches). CLV finding, straight: MLB unders lag the close (mean −9.1 prob-pts, 74% lose); MLB overs +2.0; WNBA flat. → the +4.57% MLB-C and over/under asymmetry are substantially stale-line artifacts. This UNBLOCKS the proof order (proj-v1.1), which gates promoting p_win/ev to served grades.
Honest state after this order: "no KNOWN live fabrications" — not "provably none." The audit was thorough (repo + prod), but absence of a claim of falsehood is not a proof of universal truth.
proj-v1.1 TAKEABLE-EDGE PROOF — verdict 2026-07-29 (report-only, read-only)
N-gate PASSED: overlap = 45 (settled ∩ proj-v1.1 ∩ MLB over ∩ CLV close ∩ fair_prob_lock ∩ takeable −160..+200). The CLV repair is what made n≥30 reachable. Edge basis = proj_p_over_line − proj_book_implied (de-vigged fair, VERIFIED not raw book).
VERDICT: NOT PROVEN. proj-v1.1's takeable-edge does NOT beat the champion or clearly beat the close on MLB overs.
- Phase 1 buckets (descriptive; only the neg bucket clears ≥15): 6%+ edge (n=11) shows hit 70% / fair-ROI +0.57 / CLV +12.95pts — but even negative-edge rows show +2.7pt CLV (whole over-side is elevated = the stale-high concern).
- Phase 2 partial correlation (the real test): raw r(edge,CLV)=0.455 → partial r(edge,CLV | price)=0.245, n.s. at n=45 (t≈1.64, p≈0.11). ~half the raw signal is the shared −fair_prob_lock term (mechanical). proj predicts the close itself only weakly (partial r(proj,close|lock)=0.281, n.s.).
- Phase 2.6 champion comparison (same 45 rows): the CHAMPION out-predicts proj-v1.1 — champ-edge→hit r=0.250 vs proj 0.120; champ partial-CLV=0.380 (SIGNIFICANT, p≈0.01) vs proj 0.245 (n.s.). Positive-edge fair-ROI comparable (proj +0.39 n=19, champ +0.34 n=26).
- Shown, not judged: MLB unders (n=20) CLV −9.34pts, r(edge,CLV)=−0.03 (contaminated, zero signal); WNBA — proj-v1.1 does not run (MLB-batting only), N/A.
Conditional dependency (moot): the verdict was to be conditional on the under-capture audit clearing the over-side. It's moot — proj-v1.1 fails Phase 2.6 (loses to the champion) BEFORE the audit applies, so NOT PROVEN regardless. The stale-high concern is corroborated (whole-over-side baseline +CLV; half of proj's signal mechanical).
Notable: the one statistically-defensible edge signal here is the CHAMPION's p_win predicting CLV on takeable MLB overs (partial 0.380, p≈0.01) — NOT proj-v1.1. That champion signal is itself still audit-gated (if MLB overs are whole-side stale-high, even it is suspect).
What accrues a re-test: ~20-25 more settled takeable MLB-over rows (to test proj's residual ~0.245 partial against zero), AND proj-v1.1 must demonstrate it beats the champion — which it currently does not. Promotion stays HELD.
OVER-SIDE SKEW AUDIT — verdict 2026-07-29 (report-only, read-only)
Gates the champion's over-CLV signal (partial r=0.375, p≈0.003, n=62 takeable MLB overs — 0.2 CONFIRMED).
THE THREE NUMBERS (Phase 4), n at each:
- Mechanical baseline CLV (champ-edge ≤ 0, "no edge"): +1.51 pts (n=20)
- Champion high-edge CLV (champ-edge ≥ 0.05): +8.64 pts (n=37)
- DIFFERENCE = the real edge: +7.14 pts
VERDICT: SURVIVES BASELINE. The marginal (+7.1) is ~5× the mechanical floor (+1.5) and the price-controlled partial correlation stays significant. The skew is essentially ONE-SIDED (unders lag −7.0 overall; overs carry only a small +1.5 floor, NOT the +7 a symmetric two-sided over-skew would show). De-vig is CLEAN (analyzeViaEngine1.js:539 pairs over+under from the same book/fetch — no fresh/stale pairing). Close is well-defined (draftkings vs betmgm over-prob r=0.921, n=151).
→ GREENLIGHTS building the takeable-edge grade ON THE CHAMPION (engine1 p_win), NOT proj-v1.1 (which lost the proof). This is the project's first edge signal to survive an adversarial audit.
FLAGGED — promising, NOT confirmed:
- Thin n (62 overs / 37 high-edge / 20 baseline).
- Phase 2 lock-staleness check is BLOCKED: multi-book lines AT LOCK are not retained (
bookpricesis Redis current-only), so we cannot fully rule out that part of the baseline is lock-time staleness. The de-vig being clean + the small baseline make a large hidden skew unlikely, but it's not excluded. - Sharp (pinnacle) reference covers only 8 props (sharp-CLV +3.17pt, directional hint only).
- This is one significant result among many computed this session — do not overstate.
What would strengthen it: retain multi-book at lock (enables the sharp/consensus lock-staleness check), and accrue more settled takeable MLB-over rows. Held: no promotion, no served p_win/ev, no capture fix — diagnosis only.
UPDATE 2026-07-29 (commit c7067c8): the lock-multi-book gap is now CLOSED. New lock_lines table (migration 033, applied+tracked) persists each graded prop's per-book lines at the lock moment (lockLineCapture in snapshotService, fenced RLS-service-role-only, grade byte-identical proven). This unblocks the staleness audit for FUTURE rows — it does NOT retroactively fix the existing 62. Confirmation still needs weeks of accrued lock+close+outcome. Populates from the next snapshot tick.
HERO RANKING FIX — 2026-07-29 (commit 41b86e3, deployed)
The landing/hero (matrix row 1) selection was silently broken: it ranked on ev_pct, which is NULL on served grades, and Number(null) === 0 made every prop tie at EV 0 → the "top read" was the FIRST takeable A/B prop in cache order — arbitrary, dressed as ranked (prod served Kelsey Mitchell, the #6 read by p_win). FIXED: rank by the champion's p_win (the only promising edge signal) among A/B takeable-priced reads (isTakeable −160..+200, same band as the proof/audit); strict-null guard; takeable filter excludes chalk; no backfill → honest empty state when nothing qualifies. p_win is ranking-only (never exposed; the route strips it). Display-only — reads caches, writes to nothing. No proven-edge/+EV/best-bet claim, no CLV/ROI/edge number. This makes the champion's p_win a real (display) consumer for the first time. Fingerprint VERIFIED: hero is the max-p_win read across sports (WNBA A), not old code's first-in-order MLB pick (Schanuel −135); untakeable chalk excluded. Visual auth-gated → data fingerprint.
PUSH-SCORING PREMISE VERIFY — verdict 2026-07-29 (report-only, read-only)
Tested the standing ruling "push scoring is correct — do not touch." That ruling rested on "100% half-number lines → pushes structurally impossible," which was true for the data it was made on. If whole-number lines had entered the feed since, 0 pushes across settled rows would be a real mis-scoring bug the ruling was shielding. The premise HOLDS — the ruling stands.
Phase 1 — feed distribution, 4 independent populations, per sport AND per market (never blended):
| population | what it covers | rows with a line | whole-number lines |
|---|---|---|---|
closing_captures |
raw captured market lines, 5 books, book+sharp, Jul 20-29 continuous |
117,970 | 0 |
model_snapshots |
every graded prop incl. grader refusals (not survivorship-filtered) | 6,050 | 0 |
ledger_entries (public) |
the settled public record, 11 markets | 1,141 | 0 |
lock_lines |
TODAY's lock-time per-book lines (freshest feed, migration 033) | 173 | 0 |
Per-market: MLB hits / doubles / rbi / total_bases / stolen_bases / runs / strikeouts / home_runs /
walks / earned_runs / outs / hits_allowed and WNBA points / rebounds / assists / threes — every
market's min AND max line ends in .5 (e.g. MLB strikeouts 2.5-8.5, WNBA points 5.5-26.5, MLB
outs 3.5-19.5). No whole-number market is hiding inside a blended fraction.
Phase 2 — the push branch would fire. outcomeService.js:151 if (a === l) return 'push',
reached after Number() + Number.isFinite guards on both operands — a sound numeric compare,
not the Number(null) === 0 string-vs-number class that hit the hero. It is the single scoring
chokepoint (ledgerService.js:31 imports settleResult; no parallel hit/miss derivation exists
in src/), it is unit-tested live (outcomeService.test.js:38, nbaSettlement.test.js:104),
and both ledger_entries.outcome and outcomes.result CHECK constraints include 'push' — a
real push would score, write, and persist end-to-end.
Phase 2.6 — the decisive number. Across 992 settled rows carrying an actual: 0 exact ties, 0 fractional actuals, and the smallest actual-vs-line gap is 0.5 — the arithmetic minimum between an integer result and a half-number line.
VERDICT: RULING HOLDS. Expected push rate is exactly 0 (P = 0), not "low" — 0/992 is forced, not chance. The "implausible" flag mistook an arithmetic impossibility for a suspicious absence; the row closes honestly. Stale n corrected: the flag said 470 settled, it is now 1,097 (593 hit / 399 miss / 105 void / 44 unsettled-today). Nothing modified — no scoring, settlement, re-settle, or backfill.
No latent bug either. Because the branch is correct and covered, a whole-number market entering later (NFL/NHL are code-wired but out of season; whole-number strikeout props exist at some books) would be scored as a push automatically. The residual is a monitoring gap, not a scoring gap: nothing alerts on the first whole-number line to enter the feed. Logged, not built.
EDGE_PCT SCALE DIAGNOSIS — 2026-07-29 (report-only, read-only). Fork REPORTED, not chosen.
What it is (0.1). analyzeViaEngine1.js:265-270 — edge_pct = ((projection − line) / line) × 100,
signed by direction, where projection = l5_avg ?? l20_avg ?? {stat}_per_90 ?? xg_per_90.
Independent of p_win (so NOT tainted by the overconfidence that damns ev_pct) but it takes
no price input at all, so it cannot express a betting edge. Arithmetically correct, MISLABELLED:
honest as "% the projection differs from the line," a lie at any scale as "EDGE." Two independent
implementations — backend edgePctFor and web/src/lib/gradeAdapter.js:25-31 computeEdge; the grade
card renders the WEB one, so a backend-only fix would miss it.
The cap (0.2). SANE_EDGE_MAX = 40 (deskShowcaseService.js:31: "beyond this the (model-line)/line
value isn't a market edge"), mirrored in slateAdapter.js:613 and MobileEdgeBoard.tsx:45. A
self-declared plausibility bound from an earlier order, not a derived statistical one.
Mechanism (0.3) = SMALL-DENOMINATOR EXPLOSION — not units, not inversion, not a missing ×100.
line is the denominator and 86% of MLB rows (562/655) sit at line 0.5. Max 620 = a ~3.6 projection
on a 0.5 line.
| population | n | >cap 40 | >100 | median | p95 | max | min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 655 | 65.8% (>50) | 13.6% | 60 | 180 | 620 | −86.7 |
| WNBA | 486 | 4.9% (>50) | 0% | 12 | 49 | 77.8 | −51.7 |
| blended | 1,141 | 44.0% (502) | 7.8% | — | — | 620 | — |
Per line (the proof): MLB 0.5 → 73.0% over cap, max 620 · MLB 1.5 → 43.8%, max 153 · WNBA 12.5 → 6.7% · WNBA 26.5 → max 1.9. Matrix figures re-verified: 51.5% is stale → 44.0%; worst 620 is exact. Shape: structurally broken for MLB, sane for WNBA — and the scale is a function of line size, so the metric is incomparable across markets by construction. No rescaling fixes that.
Surfaces (Phase 2) — the "~13" count is NOT confirmed. Three surfaces RENDER it:
| surface | live | access | role | user sees at 620 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
GradeResultCard.tsx:182,216,325 |
YES (3 importers) | auth-gated /scan → TAGGED FOR CHROME AUDIT |
display | "+620% edge", raw + GREEN |
DeskShowcase.tsx:40 |
YES | PUBLIC /pricing |
display | "—" (already honest) |
SoccerGradeResult.tsx:229 |
YES | orphan /soccer (0 nav links, public by URL) |
display | raw uncapped X.X% edge |
MobileEdgeBoard.tsx:47 |
DEAD (0 importers) | — | sort+display | "—" (pulled in honesty pass) |
PropRow:45, GradeCard:32, ledger/page:40 |
live components | — | type-only, never rendered | nothing |
contentTemplateService.js:164 |
public /api/content |
API | string | uncapped — no page fetches it |
🔴 IT DRIVES TWO LIVE SORTS (the fork's load-bearing answer).
slateAdapter.selectTopGrades:469-471—grade → confidence → |edge| desc→ dashboard TOP GRADES top-10 (dashboard/page.tsx:419). 97.3% of rows (1110/1141) sit in a (date,sport,grade,confidence) tie group of ≥2 (biggest 56), so |edge| is operative for essentially the whole slate — the de facto ordering of that leaderboard.analyzeViaEngine1.js:506— the Desk alt-line ladder is sorted byedge_pctdesc.
Two scale-INDEPENDENT defects inside that sort (Math.abs(numOr(g.edge, -Infinity))): (i) abs()
on an already-direction-signed value ranks the model's strongest disagreements equal to its strongest
agreements (177 negative-edge rows: 58 B / 118 C / 1 F, worst −86.7); (ii) Math.abs(-Infinity) = Infinity → a missing edge sorts FIRST. The Number(null) fabrication class again, new costume.
Phase 4 correction — "nothing renders ev_pct" is WRONG. PriceTriplet.tsx:60,67,76 renders
${pct(ev)} EV, live and wired (scan → gradeAdapter:143). It shows nothing only because ev_pct is
NULL on served grades → valueState.js:121 falls to NO_MODEL honest-absent. The right metric already
has a live honest render site, starved of data, not unwired — and the card's "EDGE" row sits exactly
where a price-aware number belongs.
THE FORK (reported, not chosen).
- FIX — dishonest: no rescaling turns a price-free projection gap into an edge (renaming, not fixing); it silently re-ranks the dashboard top-10 (the hero-class bug just fixed); needs BOTH implementations.
- HIDE — cheap: 3 render sites, each already has a null branch (no layout breaks), and DeskShowcase already proves the honest "—" pattern in-product. Not load-bearing for layout anywhere.
- RECOMMENDED: HIDE the number and re-point the sort at
p_win— the hero order established p_win is on 100% of recent ledger rows and is the only signal that survived an adversarial audit. Repairing a key that is a 0.5-line artifact is not worth it. End state: p_win ranks · ev_pct displays · edge_pct retires. The abs()/null-first sort defects deserve their own small order either way.
Nothing changed: no edge_pct, scale, surface, sort, grade, ledger, or accruing edge touched.
GRADE-BOARD SORT FIX — 2026-07-29 (spec specs/grade-board-sort.md, shipped)
Display ORDERING only. Fixes two defects that were wrong at ANY scale, independent of edge_pct's separate retirement (Order B, still held).
Defects removed. selectTopGrades ranked on Math.abs(numOr(g.edge, -Infinity)):
abs() on an already-direction-signed value ranked the model's strongest disagreements level with
its agreements (177 public ledger rows carry a negative edge); and Math.abs(-Infinity) === Infinity
made a missing signal sort FIRST — absent data as the top pick. Now: grade → confidence → takeable-gated p_win (nulls LAST) → SIGNED edge (nulls LAST) → input order, scales never mixed.
The alt-line ladder (analyzeViaEngine1:506) no longer sorts by edge_pct; it is ordered
highest-p_win-first via the monotonic line rule (line-ASC for an over, line-DESC for an under) at zero
added compute.
Three premise breaks found report-first. (1) /api/props/top-graded 404s in prod — the
dashboard board's feed does not exist, so that board renders receipts/empty and the sort orders nothing
there today; the prior order's "97.3% of rows tie → the edge key decides the board" was a ledger
measurement wrongly extrapolated to it. (2) p_win is stripped for unentitled tiers by design
(snapshotGating, Session 67 — "shipping p_win is shipping the model price"); verified live, prod
/api/snapshot carries p_win on 0/8 MLB and 0/25 WNBA grades, so the browser path uses the signed
edge and only entitled callers rank on p_win. (3) Ladder rungs carry no per-rung price, so the
hero's takeable gate is inapplicable there.
Verified on real data, both sports, both paths. Unentitled: WNBA (n=25) ordering CHANGED, MLB (n=8) unchanged; signed edge non-increasing within every (grade,confidence) tie group — 20 pairs, 0 violations. Entitled: 40 real ledger rows with p_win+locked_odds — p_win-descending, untakeable chalk not promoted, 36 pairs, 0 violations.
Hero consistency, honestly: same signal + same gate, different precedence by contract (board = grade-tier-first "top GRADES"; hero = p_win-first "top read"). They agree exactly within the leading tier (verified); across tiers the board may lead with an A the hero doesn't pick. Not a contradiction — do not "fix" it by making the board ignore grade.
Floor: 310 suites / 3864 tests green, web build exit 0. Post-deploy fingerprint (b85b351),
both halves verified: the deployed /dashboard chunk was polled across the deploy boundary — attempts
1-3 carried the OLD Math.abs(...-1/0) key, attempt 4 flipped to the new comparator with the old one
GONE (before/after observed, not inferred); API health 200 on snapshot/mlb, snapshot/wnba, accuracy. The
backend ladder was induced on demand on live MLB game logs rather than waiting for a cron slot:
OVER @0.5 → 0.5•(C) 1(C) 1.5(F) (line-ASC PASS), UNDER @1.5 → 2.5(C) 2(C) 1.5•(C) 1(C) 0.5(F)
(line-DESC PASS). Only the rendered Desk card remains unverified anonymously → tagged for the Chrome
audit, no visual faked. Held: edge_pct rescale/display retirement, building
the missing /api/props/top-graded selector, exposing p_win to unentitled tiers.
/api/props/top-graded SERVER SELECTOR — 2026-07-29 (spec specs/top-graded-selector.md, shipped)
The dashboard TOP GRADES board had no feed. The handler NEVER existed in any commit (searched
git rev-list --all) — so the three axios callers (cheatsheetGenerator, gradeOfTheDay, widget) plus
the Next proxy had always received []. Contract recovered from those consumers, not guessed.
The leak boundary — the whole point of doing it server-side. The browser cannot rank on p_win
for all tiers because stripModelPrice deliberately withholds it from unentitled tiers ("shipping
p_win is shipping the price in a different base", S67). Order of operations:
read cache → RANK with p_win (every tier) → map rows incl. model fields → stripModelPrice(rows, tier) → serialize. A free caller gets the paid RANKING without the paid VALUES. Tier resolution FAILS
CLOSED to free; Cache-Control is private under a bearer token, public otherwise.
Populated-path risk found and handled: the board's populated branch had never run in prod, and
dashboard/page.tsx:463 calls g.stat.replace(/_/g,' ') unguarded — toRow requires string
player+stat, a finite line, uppercases sport for SportPill, and drops unrenderable rows.
One shared ranking definition: new src/utils/gradeRanking.js; heroPropService now imports
takeablePWin (was an inline copy, behaviour unchanged), the selector imports rankGrades, and the
web mirror is cross-checked by test. Board is grade-first ("top GRADES"), hero is p_win-first ("top
read") — they differ by design and agree within the leading tier.
Honest limit: the Next proxy forwards no Authorization and caches under a shared key, so via the dashboard every viewer receives the free-tier payload — correct order, no paid values. That is the safe default (forwarding auth into a shared cache is how paid payloads leak); per-tier delivery through the proxy needs a tier-keyed cache and is NOT done here.
Verified: 311 suites / 3882 tests green (18 new, leak test on POPULATED p_win), web build exit 0.
Post-deploy fingerprint (72a14dc) — the boundary proven in production: 404→200 captured across the
deploy boundary; the anonymous live order is 1. Brionna Jones (edge 29.4) · 2. Rhyne Howard (edge 42.9)
— an edge-only sort would lead with Howard (and the local induction over the stripped snapshot did), so
server-side p_win ordered it (Brionna .90 @−106 > Howard .745 @−120) while the payload carries
PAID FIELDS: NONE. A bogus bearer token also yields no paid fields (fail-closed proven in prod).
The board's proxy path now returns 10 props, so TOP GRADES renders instead of falling back to empty.
The rendered board is client-side → tagged for the Chrome audit, not faked.
MODEL ARCHITECTURE RECOVERY MAP — 2026-07-30 (report-only) → specs/model-architecture-recovery-map.md
The live grade uses 0 of the 3 specced layers. Every audited metric (calibration, CLV, skew audit, takeable floor, p_win→CLV r=0.375) is measured on the SHADOW model. Those findings stand — the shadow model served every real grade — but none are evidence about the specced engine, which has never been measured.
| Specced component | State |
|---|---|
Layer 1 Similarity (python/utils/similarity.py, 101 ln) |
BUILT · NOT WIRED · NOT DEPLOYED |
Layer 2 Bayesian (python/utils/bayesian.py, 320 ln) |
BUILT · NOT WIRED · NOT DEPLOYED — and its "sport-agnostic math / per-sport parameters" claim is TRUE of the built code |
Layer 3 grade scale (grade_thresholds.json) |
BUILT · WIRED BACKWARDS — the table maps PROBABILITY→GRADE; the live JS reads it in reverse to manufacture confidence from an already-chosen letter |
| Per-sport market-efficiency scaling | SPECCED-BUT-ABSENT |
Live champion (engine1 + probabilityEstimator) |
BUILT · WIRED — but the letter is a factor-index with zero probability input, and p_win is computed separately and never feeds it |
The Python engine is not in the deploy image at all (no python/pip in Dockerfile; app.js only
health-checks it). The sport boundary is NOT clean on the live path — adding a sport is a ~10-file
core edit with four documented silent-failure modes, so "make a sport a module" is itself a prerequisite
build. Per-sport records DO exist (sports.mlb n=526/62% vs pooled overall n=937/58%, each with
its own n≥20 gate) — the rule to enforce is that a new sport renders sports.{sport}, never overall.
Park×weather is a CHALLENGER, not the champion ("measured, never served"); xwOBA and bullpen-leash
are absent entirely.
Recovery is dependency-ordered in the map: decide the grading basis → pick a runtime (recommend porting Bayesian to Node) → wire Layer 2 → reconnect Layer 3 forward → Layer 1 → per-sport efficiency → challenger promotion → sport-as-module → NFL/CFB. MLB is specced as the reference module.
FULL-OUTPUT GRADE MAPPING + COLLAPSE COST — 2026-07-30 (report-only) → specs/full-output-grade-mapping.md
Track-B 1 of 3. The three-layer engine is BUILT but NOT WIRED and NOT DEPLOYED (re-verified), so no
posterior/CI is produced today. Measured instead against the collapse that actually exists — three of
them: estimator components dropped; p_win excluded from the grade entirely (the severe one — the
letter is a factor index with zero probability input); and grade_thresholds.json read backwards to
manufacture confidence. Market-efficiency scaling is never computed at all.
THE MEASUREMENT (354 settled rows, locked pre-game p_win — forward, not lookahead):
| basis | ALL (n=354) | MLB (n=224) | WNBA (n=130) |
|---|---|---|---|
| champion letter → outcome r | 0.0050 (p≈0.93, null) | 0.0686 (n.s.) | −0.0986 |
| probability letter → outcome r | 0.1313 (p≈0.013) | 0.2356 (p≈0.0004) | −0.1258 |
The served letter is INVERTED between its only two populated tiers — B 52.4% (n=168) vs C 56.9% (n=174). Probability letters spread 30.8%→70.0%, use 10-11 of 11 letters (champion uses 3-4), and split ROI −1.42% (A-family n=78) vs −26.62% (C-/D/F n=51).
Verdict: costly on MLB, and un-collapsing does NOT help WNBA (both correlations inverse there) —
so the full-output challenger must be MLB-FIRST. Five falsifiable mapping rules are specced (R2
"uncertainty grades down" stated explicitly and droppable if it fails). Hard requirement on the build
order: persist per-row n, SE, and pre-adjustment p — without them R2/R4 can never be adjudicated.
Re-adjudication flagged: p_win→CLV, the skew audit, proj-v1.1's "NOT PROVEN" (judged against the collapsed champion — not final), the C1 takeable floor, the calibration curves, and ROI-by-grade — with B/C inverted, "MLB-C +4.57%" is likely an artifact of a meaningless letter.
MARKET-EFFICIENCY SCALING CHECK — 2026-07-30 (report-only). VERDICT: FLAT.
Premise correction first (measured): the claim that "full-output and collapsed grades agree 100%" does not hold — on 512 rows carrying both they agree 17.8%, and 33.8% differ by 3+ tiers. The prior discrimination result stands (champion letter r=0.0050 null vs probability r=0.1313; MLB 0.0686 n.s. vs 0.2356 p≈0.0004). Repo unchanged between orders. The collapse was not a phantom and the re-adjudication list stays open.
0.1 marketEfficiency.js does not exist — zero occurrences of market_efficiency /
efficiency_score anywhere. The spec's 0.85/0.60/0.55 values DO appear in grade_thresholds.json but
those are probability bands, a coincidental overlap, not efficiency scores.
0.2 The base edge thresholds do not exist either — engine1.js has zero edge references; the
grade is an additive factor index, not an edge-vs-threshold comparison. So
threshold = base × efficiency has no host.
Phase 1 dispositive: engine1.js has ZERO sport references. Sport is not an input to
computeFactors, so per-market or per-sport scaling is structurally impossible in the live grader —
not merely unwired. Applies to the champion.
Phase 2: the matched-edge test is confounded (edge isn't the grading input — the same market emits B and C at one edge). The discriminating aggregate: mean grade index wnba points 4.71 (mean edge 10.2) vs mlb hits 4.58 (69.5) vs mlb total_bases 4.32 (84.9) — the efficient market earns the highest grades on one-eighth the edge, the opposite of the spec.
Scope: a flat threshold is a grade-CALIBRATION gap — it does not touch the projection or the
CLV edge (which measured p_win, never the letter), so it is not a third shadow-model alarm. But it is
not independently bounded: with no threshold step to multiply, efficiency scaling presupposes
probability grading. It is rule R4 of specs/full-output-grade-mapping.md and belongs to that
MLB-first challenger.
TAKEABLE TAGGING BUILT · EFFICIENCY CHALLENGER BLOCKED — 2026-07-31 → specs/takeable-tagging.md
Champion grade byte-identical (verified by diff). Additive tags only.
BLOCKED — the efficiency challenger. Review Zero found all three inputs ABSENT: efficiency scores
(zero occurrences anywhere), base edge thresholds (engine1.js has zero edge references — the grade
is not edge-vs-threshold), and the claimed ±0.05 additive nudge (the only 0.05s on the grade path are a
teammate-absence feature, a bvp cutoff, and the shrink-toward-0.5 term). With no additive scaling to
swap, no threshold to multiply, and zero sport references in engine1.js, a
differs-in-exactly-one-thing challenger cannot be constructed. It needs R1 probability grading
first (specs/full-output-grade-mapping.md); shipping R1+R4 together would attribute an R1-driven
re-letter to the efficiency fix. Coverage compounds it: 9 of 11 live markets have no specced score.
BUILT — ledger takeable tagging (deferred C2). src/config/takeableStandard.js: floor on the minus
side, uncapped plus — deliberately NOT valueEngine.isTakeable (the −160..+200 promotion band). A
+400 prop is not promotable but IS takeable; a test locks the divergence. Absent price → null, never
false. The floor is policy, not derived, and each row records takeable_floor so a re-derivation
can re-tag. Migration 034 applied + tracked. Backfill: 1,254 rows → 1,246 tagged (781 takeable / 465
below floor), 8 NULL with null_despite_price = 0; settled 1,163 and graded 1,254 unchanged.
NOT applied — the model-version boundary tag: no scaling change shipped, so no boundary exists; stamping one would record a model transition that never happened.
312 suites / 3,890 tests green, web build exit 0.
EDGE-SHADING CHALLENGER — built + measured 2026-07-31 → specs/edge-shading-challenger.md
Challenger only; champion byte-identical; nothing promoted. The mechanic is sound and built
(adjusted = raw_edge × f(e), f bounded to (0,1], one fixed bar that never moves; same raw 6% edge
→ A in soft mlb:total_bases, B in sharp nba:points, unit-proven).
But the measurement says the flooding is NOT fixed: on 1,250 live rows the challenger grades 79.0% A / 80.9% A-or-B (MLB 93.4% A) vs champion 0.2% A.
Why — two findings. (1) The shading is a no-op on the live board: 0 of 1,250 rows are actually
shaded. 96.5% are unscored (f=1) and the one scored market present is the anchor (f=1.0 by
construction); mlb:strikeouts and nba:points are absent from the ledger entirely (our basketball is
wnba). (2) The input scale is the bug, not the placement. Against a fixed 5% bar the RAW edge
already clears A on 100% of MLB doubles and 89.6% of hits, with MLB's median raw edge at 60% — twelve
times the bar. Applying the sharpest score in the spec (f=0.647) to every row still leaves 75.8%
clearing A. A multiplier bounded ≤1 cannot close a 12× overshoot.
edge_pct is a price-free (proj−line)/line gap whose scale is a function of line size — not a
betting edge, so no fixed betting-edge bar is meaningful against it. Unblocking needs the input
replaced (p_win vs fair_prob, both already stored), not the multiply moved, plus scores fit from
our own record for the 9 of 11 live markets that have none.
313 suites / 3,899 tests green, web build exit 0.
PROMOTION GATE NOT PASSED · ORDER B SHIPPED — 2026-07-31 → specs/edge-pct-display-retirement.md
No flip. Champion grade byte-identical; projection/p_win/CLV untouched.
Gate: 3 of 4 prerequisites fail. Scores are estimated priors (and the premise's NBA 0.72 / WNBA
0.68 are not in the code — there is no WNBA score); the version-boundary tag never landed
(modelEras.js has zero shading refs); no rollback flag exists. Takeable tags did land (034).
The approved delta is wrong. Approved 43.6% re-letter, efficient tighten / soft hold. Measured on 1,250 rows: 97.4% change, 79.8% UP, → 79.0% A-family (MLB 93.4%) vs champion 0.2%, with 0 rows actually shaded. The re-letter is entirely the grading-basis switch, not efficiency shading (inert: 96.5% of markets unscored, the one scored market is the f=1 anchor). Flipping would mint A's across 79% of an append-only record on a letter with r ≈ 0.005 vs outcomes.
Order B shipped: edge_pct display retired from GradeResultCard (strip, EDGE cell → —, ladder
rung) and SoccerGradeResult; DeskShowcase kept; computation + signed-edge sort fallback survive
(deleting them re-breaks the 07-29 sort fix). Two build-breakers fixed; two pre-existing sign-colour
tests superseded by the stronger "no edge figure renders at all".
314 suites / 3,908 tests green, web build exit 0.
MATRIX REFRESH — 2026-07-31 → full re-derivation in specs/pre-audit-status-pull.md
Re-derived from repo 10aaaeb + live prod probes (nothing inherited). 15 of 26 fully done.
No promotion has occurred. The shading challenger is imported by zero production files and live
grades carry 0.0% A-family (MLB {B:1,C:4}, WNBA {B:15,C:10}). Neither the "92.9%" nor the
"43.6%" re-letter figure was ever measured here; the challenger's real numbers were 97.4%
would-change / 79.8% up / 79.0% A, with 0 of 1,250 rows actually shaded.
Changed since the last matrix: row 18 Book comparison → DONE (BookComparisonPanel routed to
the grade card — the headline dead component is resolved); row 4 Grade card HONEST improved
(edge_pct display retired, EDGE renders —); row 17 ladder rung % also retired.
Still dead code: ShareCard (0 real importers), MobileEdgeBoard (0, correctly hidden),
DemoScan (0). Still orphaned (live, 0 nav links): /intelligence, /soccer, /marketplace,
/notifications, /slip, /compare, /parlay (drawer-only). 404: /system, /offseason.
LIVE-but-not-HONEST: none found.
Design is NOT complete: Live tracking, Slip reader and Newsletter are shipped but have no design artboard — design is the gap, not build. Offseason is the reverse (designed, never built).
Chrome audit manifest: 11 items, four of which need an entitled Desk session (grade card entitled half, alt-line ladder, entitled top-graded board, ledger).
BOUNDARY NOT WRITTEN + BUILD TRIAGE — 2026-07-31 → specs/incomplete-surface-triage.md
No promotion exists, so no recalibration boundary was written (writing one would fabricate a model
transition in an append-only record). Proofs: every deployed code_sha in the last 5 days is a
documented session commit stamped engine1@2026-07-20; daily A-family share 07-24→07-30 is flat at
0.0-1.6% with no step change; efficiencyShading has zero production importers. Neither the 92.9% nor
the 43.6% re-letter figure is attested — the only measured numbers (full board, 1,250 rows) were 97.4%
would-change / 79.8% up / 79.0% A, with 0 rows actually shaded.
Triage: 14 surfaces, 5 waves. W1 wiring (/intelligence, /slip, /parlay, /marketplace after a
copy pass) · W2 design-only artboards (Live tracking, Slip reader, Newsletter — built/live/honest,
DESIGN is the only gap) · W3 self-contained (/compare, ShareCard host, /notifications) · W4
model-gated (price-triplet MODEL leg + edge board — need p_win vs fair_prob; edge_pct would
re-ship the 620% lie) · W5 quota/sport-gated (/soccer blocked on odds-api 0/500, /system,
Offseason).
WAVE 1 WIRED — 2026-07-31 → specs/wave1-wiring.md
Three surfaces proven to work with real data, then linked; /marketplace completed honestly.
No grade/ledger/model/scoring change.
/intelligence→ nav-linked + added to GATED_ROUTES (its feed 401s signed-out). Gating is server-side by tier (desk 50 / non-desk 8), never blur-over-full-data./systemis NOT a duplicate to build —System.dc.htmlis a multi-surface artboard whose INTELLIGENCE section is already this page; the 404 is correct./slip→ nav-linked after parsing a real DraftKings slip 3/3 legs. Layout-rigid: an unsupported layout returns zero legs, never wrong ones; real-world hit-rate CANNOT DETERMINE yet./parlay→ direct nav link (was drawer-hash only); stays OPEN as the free parlay funnel./marketplace→ every item now states "Not built yet."; subhead: not a purchase, not a pre-order, not a promise of a ship date; no profit claim; the waitlist capture was already real.
Matrix effect: rows 16 (Parlay lab), 22 (Slip reader) and 25 (/intelligence half) move from
WIRED: NO → YES. 315 suites / 3,920 tests green, web build exit 0.
WAVE 3 — 2026-07-31 → specs/wave3-compare-and-resolution-tail.md
/compare BUILT (row 20 → real). A same-market head-to-head on the live player feed: rows aligned
on measures both sides share, NO DATA for an unresolved side, — never 0 for a one-sided measure,
refusal when neither resolves, and NO VERDICT. Live-verified: Judge vs Ohtani, 5 of 5 shared
measures; bogus name → NO DATA.
Resolution tail — ALL FIVE outputs scoped, none shipped (rows 23 ShareCard, /notifications,
result posts, recap): share-card generation SPEC'D-NOT-BUILT (absent from the resolve fanout;
renderer has zero callers) · push/Telegram/Discord BUILT-NOT-FIRING (env-gated; push_subscriptions
and user_notifications both 0 rows) · recap SPEC'D-NOT-BUILT (no file). And nothing calls
/api/grading/resolve — there is no ESPN poller in the repo, so the tail is unreachable regardless.
The live settle path emits ops alerts only, with zero user-facing output.
316 suites / 3,930 tests green, web build exit 0.
DESIGN-vs-BUILD GAP AUDIT — 2026-07-31 → specs/design-vs-build-gap-audit.md
61 implementable items enumerated from specs/design-reference/ (Jul 22) against the current repo:
BUILT-TO-SPEC 20 · BUILT-BUT-DRIFTED 7 · PARTIAL 16 · ABSENT 18. The design is ahead of the build;
the gap is implementation, not design.
Biggest gap: the glyph library — 38 of 83 SVGs wired (46%), and the design implies 74 display archetypes vs the registry's 41.
Drift on recently-built surfaces: book comparison (wired 07-29) has no crown, no disagreement axis, no SPLIT chip, no movement strip; the mobile tab bar lacks the designed READ-FAB; calibration gates at n≥20 vs the designed N30.
Correction to the earlier status pull: the Newsletter IS designed (S5 "The Report") → design-exists-needs-build. Only Live tracking and Slip reader are genuinely design-missing.
Six-wave ordered build list: self-contained (glyphs, primitives, boundary-channel blue) → scanner- nudge-gated → model-gated (Price Triplet EV leg, calibration curve) → resolution-pipeline-gated (share-card masters — the tail has no generation step and no trigger) → licensing-gated (book logos, push-to-book) → large surface builds (Offseason, S3 media, The Report, S2 primitives).
D1-A SHIPPED — 2026-07-31 (design self-contained wave, part A)
Backend untouched. Glyphs: 6 classifier-backed combat marks wired from the package SVGs
(GLYPHS 38→44), replacing emoji fallbacks; 39 package SVGs with no classifier deliberately NOT wired
(they'd render nothing) and 2 classifier-backed archetypes have no package SVG — both held for D1-B.
Boundary channel completed: PriceTriplet's NO_MODEL was the last boundary state rendering in
neutral text; it now uses --priced-out, so the blue law covers every "can't hand you this" state.
Reaction primitives (lib/reactions.js + keyframes) at exact HANDOFF timings, with nudge()
refusing a no-op so it can never run as an idle loop. READ-FAB at exact geometry (50px /
translateY(-14px) / 6px ring). Audit correction: the #0E0E14 card token was already tokenised.
317 suites / 3,946 tests green, web build exit 0. Not done, carried in D1: row-hover rationale, IntersectionObserver reveal, team-gradient chips.
D1 FINISH — 2026-07-31 (row anatomy: rationale · reveal · team chips)
Backend untouched. Three pure modules, unit-locked:
rowRationale.js— the hover "why" is the grade's OWNreasoning+kill_conditions_triggered(VERIFIED present on live grades, built from real l5/l20/gap/home/defense/rest), or NULL. No generic fallback; a locked/tier-gated reasoning counts as absent rather than paraphrased.reveal.js— IntersectionObserver, fires once then unobserves, reuses D1-A'sbootDelayMs(one source of truth for the 60ms stagger), and reveals immediately when the API is absent so content is never hidden.teamChips.js— Rev-3 chip geometry + the 1/.86/.64/.48 ramp. Colour coverage is 10 of ~80 teams (the artboard's full set, verbatim); every other team renders honest-neutral rather than a guessed colour.
318 suites / 3,961 tests green, web build exit 0. Mounting the modules into the live row components is a follow-up; the visuals go to the Chrome audit.
TIER REDESIGN SPEC — 2026-07-31 → specs/tier-redesign-spec.md
Option 2 (settled-free / live-paid) designed, not built. FREE = full data aggregator + the complete settled record (letter, reasoning, edge, outcome — browsable) as the proof hook. ANALYST $14.99→$24.99 = tonight's live grades + reasoning + edge. DESK $44.99→$59.99 = + alt ladder, Kelly, portfolio, engine2.
The gate already has its discriminator: /api/snapshot merges per-grade outcome (live WNBA:
5 of 25 settled), so outcome != null ⇒ free, null ⇒ paid, with no new pipeline. Filter whole
grades server-side, never infer resolution from time, fail closed to LIVE.
Two findings that reshape the plan: (a) founder pricing is gated by code + expiry, not seat
count — the real counter (/api/founders/count, live 0/100) only displays and is cached 300s, so
making it a transactional gate is a genuine build; (b) the user base is 3 free, 0 paid, so the
migration is a courtesy note, not a mass event — effort belongs on the settled-record proof surface.