vyndr/src/services/model/lowParamService.js

'use strict';

/**
 * lowParamService — the production side of the two-parameter correction.
 *
 * Mirrors calibrationService's interface so the serving path swaps cleanly, but
 * fits a Platt curve instead of an isotonic map. The reason for the swap is
 * capacity, not score: on 19 dates we cannot certify the stability of a map with
 * one free parameter per prediction level, and LODO turned out to have 1.4-9.3%
 * power to tell us otherwise. Two parameters cannot encode "this Tuesday was
 * odd", which is exactly the failure we cannot rule out for isotonic.
 *
 * Stated plainly because it is a judgement rather than a measurement: on the
 * held-out window isotonic scored BETTER than this on hits (+0.0028) and rbi
 * (+0.0042) and tied on total_bases. That window spans 2-4 date blocks, so it is
 * weak evidence either way, and it is consistent with a flexible map having
 * captured structure shared by fit and evaluation periods.
 *
 * Same point-in-time cut as before: fitted ONLY on games that are already over.
 */

const lp = require('./lowParamCalibrator');
const cal = require('./calibration');
const { paginate } = require('../../utils/safePaginate');
const { knownNumber } = require('../../utils/known');

const MIN_FIT = 200;
const HOLDOUT_FRACTION = 0.35;

/** Build from settled rows: fit on the older part, certify bands on the newer. */
function build(rows, opts = {}) {
  const clean = (rows || [])
    .map((r) => ({ p: knownNumber(r.p), won: knownNumber(r.won), date: String(r.date || '') }))
    .filter((r) => r.p !== null && (r.won === 0 || r.won === 1))
    .sort((a, b) => a.date.localeCompare(b.date));
  if (clean.length < (opts.minFit ?? MIN_FIT)) return null;

  const cut = Math.floor(clean.length * (1 - (opts.holdout ?? HOLDOUT_FRACTION)));
  const fitRows = clean.slice(0, cut);
  const certRows = clean.slice(cut);
  if (fitRows.length < (opts.minFit ?? MIN_FIT) || certRows.length < 50) return null;

  const model = lp.fitPlatt(fitRows, opts);
  // A refused fit (inverting or collapsed slope) yields no calibrator at all.
  if (!model || model.refused) return null;

  const corrected = certRows
    .map((r) => ({ ...r, p: lp.applyPlatt(model, r.p) }))
    .filter((r) => knownNumber(r.p) !== null);
  const bands = cal.certifyBands(corrected, {
    tolerance: opts.tolerance ?? 0.05,
    minBin: opts.minBin ?? 40,
  });

  return {
    model,
    bands,
    fit_n: fitRows.length,
    certify_n: certRows.length,
    fitted_through: fitRows[fitRows.length - 1].date,
    shrinkage: model.shrinkage,
    calibrate(p) {
      const raw = knownNumber(p);
      if (raw === null) return { p_raw: null, p_calibrated: null, calibrated: false, reason: 'absent' };
      const c = lp.applyPlatt(model, raw);
      if (c === null) return { p_raw: raw, p_calibrated: null, calibrated: false, reason: 'no_model_value' };
      const inBand = cal.inCertifiedBand(bands, c);
      return {
        p_raw: raw,
        p_calibrated: Math.round(c * 1000) / 1000,
        calibrated: inBand,
        reason: inBand ? null : 'outside_certified_band',
      };
    },
  };
}

function todayEt() {
  return new Intl.DateTimeFormat('en-CA', {
    timeZone: 'America/New_York', year: 'numeric', month: '2-digit', day: '2-digit',
  }).format(new Date());
}

/**
 * The ROW LOAD — exported so the read-integrity harness measures THE REAL
 * FUNCTION rather than a restatement of its query.
 *
 * ── FIX A2 (2026-08-09) — THIS READ WAS 24.8% CORRUPT ────────────────────
 * This is the PRIMARY calibrator (calibrationService is only its shadow), and it
 * carried the byte-identical defect A1 fixed there: an unordered `.range()` walk,
 * plus `if (error || !data) break` swallowing a failed read as end-of-data.
 * Measured on production: 617 of 2,490 rows returned twice, an equal number never
 * returned, with `rows.length` matching the server count exactly.
 *
 * Both are now `safePaginate` on the unique `id`. A throw means the read failed;
 * `null` from `fromLedger` still means "not enough settled history to fit". Those
 * are different states and collapsing them is what hid the defect.
 */
async function loadSettledRows(sb, { sport = 'mlb', stat = 'hits', before = null } = {}) {
  const cutoff = before || todayEt();
  return paginate(
    () => sb.from('ledger_entries')
      .select('id, p_win, outcome, game_date, quarantine_reason')
      .eq('sport', sport).is('user_id', null).eq('stat', stat)
      .in('outcome', ['hit', 'miss']).not('p_win', 'is', null)
      .lt('game_date', cutoff),
    { key: 'id', pageSize: 1000, label: `lowParamService.fromLedger(${sport}/${stat})` },
  );
}

/** Load settled history and build, POINT-IN-TIME (strictly before today). */
async function fromLedger(sb, { sport = 'mlb', stat = 'hits', before = null, ...opts } = {}) {
  if (!sb) return null;
  const cutoff = before || todayEt();
  const rows = await loadSettledRows(sb, { sport, stat, before: cutoff });
  const clean = rows
    .filter((r) => !(r.quarantine_reason || '').startsWith('nontakeable_book'))
    .map((r) => ({ p: Number(r.p_win), won: r.outcome === 'hit' ? 1 : 0, date: String(r.game_date) }));
  const built = build(clean, opts);
  return built ? { ...built, cutoff } : null;
}

module.exports = { build, fromLedger, loadSettledRows, MIN_FIT, HOLDOUT_FRACTION };