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Truth-train decisions locked: futures (quota-disciplined), soccer deferred, ESPN gamelog verified

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Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Kev
2026-07-13 18:23:25 -04:00
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@@ -41,7 +41,12 @@ The plumbing is ALREADY sport-agnostic — the ONLY gate is `defaultGetPlayerSta
### WAVE 3 — FUTURES HONESTY LINE
Season-long grading is a different model (projection+roster+schedule, not last-5). The hub SHOWS + TRACKS futures + news + movement honestly, and GRADES only where the model genuinely supports it — "tracked, not graded" everywhere else. The deliberate futures-grading model is a LATER train.
## DECISIONS FOR THE FOUNDER (my recommendations in **bold**)
## DECISIONS — LOCKED (2026-07-13)
- **D1 = BUILD FUTURES, quota-disciplined.** Separate `FUTURES_KEYS` path, 6–12h/daily TTL, offseason-month gated, never touches the daily player-prop budget.
- **D2 = DEFER SOCCER to the end / its own follow-up.** NBA/WNBA are the free high-value wins first; soccer wired when `API_FOOTBALL_KEY` is provided.
- **D3 = ANSWERED (green).** ESPN per-athlete gamelog verified live: NBA returns 73 per-game rows + stat labels; WNBA endpoint 200. Free per-game logs exist → NBA/WNBA can grade. Endpoint: `site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/{nba|wnba}/athletes/{id}/gamelog` → `events[]` + `labels`/`names`.
## ORIGINAL DECISION RECOMMENDATIONS (superseded by LOCKED above)
- **D1 — Futures quota.** Futures spend the already-paid odds-api 500/mo quota, competing with game-prop credits. **Rec: YES but disciplined — futures move slowly, so a 6–12h/daily TTL + offseason-month gating keeps the cost tiny; wire them on a separate `FUTURES_KEYS` path so they never touch the daily player-prop budget.** (Alt: skip futures, ship only the free news wire + line-movement on existing markets.)
- **D2 — Soccer.** Grading + settling soccer both need `API_FOOTBALL_KEY` (free tier, 100/day) which YOU provision (I can't create accounts/keys), plus arming the prefetch. **Rec: defer soccer to the END of the train (or its own follow-up) — it's the only double-blocked, key-gated sport; NBA/WNBA are the high-value free wins. Provide the key when convenient and I'll wire it.**
- **D3 — NBA/WNBA grade source.** Wave 0 hinges on a FREE per-game-log feed. **Rec: verify ESPN's per-athlete gamelog endpoint returns per-game rows FIRST (a spike), before building the featureCache branch — if ESPN only gives season averages, we need another free source or NBA/WNBA can't honestly grade yet.** This is the single technical risk of the whole train; I'll de-risk it in Step 0.5.