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proj-v1 sanity fixes (caught in the real-data induction)

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1. matchupRead fly-ball signal: the batter metrics `gb_pct_bb`/`fb_ld_pct` are
   MISLABELED — they're exit velocities by batted-ball type (Judge fb_ld_pct =
   100.3 mph, not a rate), not ground/fly RATES. Switched fly-ball lean to
   avg_launch_angle (league p10/p50/p90 = 7.1/13.9/20.1°), the correct signal.
2. Absolute rate now fits the FULL season (recency-weighted), not a 20-game
   window: the window under-sampled rare stats — Judge HR projected 0.11 vs his
   0.28 season rate (a fake -32pt edge). Now point=0.27 (matches season); the
   last-5-2x recency lean is preserved.

Post-fix induction (real statsapi logs + real statcast): Judge HR 0.27 (P>=1
0.235 vs book 0.42 -> flags the juiced over), Judge TB P>=2 0.548 vs 0.48
(+6.8pt), thin-hot 3-game P>=1 0.726 / P>=3 0.164 (credible low, thin high),
.300 hitter != 3.0. proj-v1 suites 23/23.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VCNgGSt5qvcLxaeQqa7Zpj
This commit is contained in:
Kev
2026-07-23 04:05:23 -04:00
parent 6386e737b9
commit 316b79733e
3 changed files with 21 additions and 15 deletions
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src/services/projection/matchupRead.js
+10 -9
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@@ -64,28 +64,29 @@ function classifyArsenal(pitchMix) {
}
/**
* hitterProfile(batterRow) — the aggregate tendencies we DO have. gb/fb lean
* comes from gb_pct_bb vs fb_ld_pct in the metrics blob (batted-ball type).
* hitterProfile(batterRow) — the aggregate tendencies we DO have.
*
* FLY-BALL lean comes from avg_launch_angle (league p10/p50/p90 = 7.1/13.9/20.1°
* verified in prod). NOTE: the metrics blob's `gb_pct_bb` / `fb_ld_pct` are
* mislabeled — they are EXIT VELOCITIES by batted-ball type (Judge fb_ld_pct =
* 100.3 mph, not a rate), NOT ground/fly RATES. Launch angle is the correct,
* unambiguous air-vs-ground signal. (Caught in the proj-v1 sanity induction.)
*/
function hitterProfile(row) {
if (!row) return null;
const m = row.metrics || {};
const gb = num(m.gb_pct_bb);
const fb = num(m.fb_ld_pct);
let flyLean = null;
if (gb != null && fb != null && (gb + fb) > 0) flyLean = fb / (gb + fb); // 0..1, high = fly-ball
return {
whiff: num(row.whiff_pct) ?? num(m.whiff_pct),
chase: num(row.chase_pct) ?? num(m.chase_pct),
hard_hit: num(row.hard_hit_pct) ?? num(m.hard_hit_pct),
fly_lean: flyLean, // fraction of batted balls in the air
launch_angle: num(row.avg_launch_angle) ?? num(m.avg_launch_angle), // ° — higher = more air
};
}
// League anchors (2026 percentiles, verified in prod) — the neutral point each
// tendency is measured against, so "high"/"low" means relative to the league.
const ANCHOR = Object.freeze({
arsenal_whiff: 22, hitter_whiff: 24, hard_hit: 38, fly_lean: 0.5,
arsenal_whiff: 22, hitter_whiff: 24, hard_hit: 38, launch_angle: 13.9,
});
// Max single-component lean and total matchup lean — coarse read, small effect.
const COMP_MAX = 0.05;
@@ -118,7 +119,7 @@ function matchupMultiplier({ arsenal, hitter, statType } = {}) {
// fly-ball arsenal lets a fly-ball hitter elevate. DERIVED: sinker share
// vs hitter fly lean.
const groundy = clamp(arsenal.sinker_pct - 0.20, -0.5, 0.6) / 0.6; // >20% sinker = groundy
const flyBat = z(hitter.fly_lean, ANCHOR.fly_lean, 0.2);
const flyBat = z(hitter.launch_angle, ANCHOR.launch_angle, 6); // p90 20° → ~+1, p10 7° → ~-1
const airSuppress = clamp(groundy * Math.max(0, flyBat), -1, 1); // groundy arm vs fly bat → power down
// (3) HARD-CONTACT axis — an arsenal that allows hard contact, faced by a