builtbykev
316b79733e
1. matchupRead fly-ball signal: the batter metrics `gb_pct_bb`/`fb_ld_pct` are MISLABELED — they're exit velocities by batted-ball type (Judge fb_ld_pct = 100.3 mph, not a rate), not ground/fly RATES. Switched fly-ball lean to avg_launch_angle (league p10/p50/p90 = 7.1/13.9/20.1°), the correct signal. 2. Absolute rate now fits the FULL season (recency-weighted), not a 20-game window: the window under-sampled rare stats — Judge HR projected 0.11 vs his 0.28 season rate (a fake -32pt edge). Now point=0.27 (matches season); the last-5-2x recency lean is preserved. Post-fix induction (real statsapi logs + real statcast): Judge HR 0.27 (P>=1 0.235 vs book 0.42 -> flags the juiced over), Judge TB P>=2 0.548 vs 0.48 (+6.8pt), thin-hot 3-game P>=1 0.726 / P>=3 0.164 (credible low, thin high), .300 hitter != 3.0. proj-v1 suites 23/23. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VCNgGSt5qvcLxaeQqa7Zpj