Session 61 (pre-merge): live-verification fixes from day-one rows

1. [settlement] armed boot line — settlement WAS scheduled (the tick runs
   settleAllOutcomes + settleAllLedgers FIRST at every snapshot slot,
   src/snapshotScheduler.js) but was invisible at boot. Now verifiable
   from logs forever.
2. Null locked_odds root cause (4 day-one rows, all betmgm SB unders):
   genuinely absent in the DB — the first-seen book row carried no juice
   for that side. indexOdds/indexProps now PREFER a book row with both
   sides priced (still a real row, never synthesized). Display was
   correct: absent beats wrong.
3. Verified retry-safe: 'Odds data temporarily unavailable' is the
   odds-api quota gate (oddsService:423) — thrown BEFORE any spend or
   cache write; runSnapshot errors write nothing; the next cron retries
   fresh with PropLine first.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

src/services/ledgerService.js

@@ -100,13 +100,17 @@ function teamOpponentFor(g, prop) {
   return { team, opponent: null };
 }
 
-/** Index odds props by nameKey|stat for lock/closing lookups. */
+/** Index odds props by nameKey|stat for lock/closing lookups.
+ *  Session 61 — prefer a book row with BOTH sides priced (same rule as
+ *  snapshotService.indexOdds): fewer genuinely-absent locked/closing odds
+ *  when another book carried the side. Real rows only, never synthesized. */
 function indexProps(props) {
   const map = {};
+  const bothSides = (p) => p && p.over_odds != null && p.under_odds != null;
   for (const p of props || []) {
     if (!p || !p.player || !p.stat_type) continue;
     const k = `${nameKey(p.player)}|${String(p.stat_type).toLowerCase()}`;
-    if (!map[k]) map[k] = p;
+    if (!map[k] || (!bothSides(map[k]) && bothSides(p))) map[k] = p;
   }
   return map;
 }

src/services/snapshotService.js

@@ -52,12 +52,17 @@ async function mapLimit(items, concurrency, fn) {
   return out;
 }
 
-/** Index original odds props by propKey-ish (player|stat) for odds lookup. */
+/** Index original odds props by propKey-ish (player|stat) for odds lookup.
+ *  Session 61 — prefer a book row with BOTH sides priced: the first-seen row
+ *  sometimes carried only one side (e.g. betmgm SB unders with no juice),
+ *  which locked a NULL odds even though another book priced it. Still a
+ *  REAL book row, never synthesized. */
 function indexOdds(props) {
   const map = {};
+  const bothSides = (p) => p && p.over_odds != null && p.under_odds != null;
   for (const p of props || []) {
     const k = `${norm(p.player)}|${String(p.stat_type || '').toLowerCase()}`;
-    map[k] = p;
+    if (!map[k] || (!bothSides(map[k]) && bothSides(p))) map[k] = p;
   }
   return map;
 }

src/snapshotScheduler.js

@@ -147,6 +147,11 @@ function startSnapshotScheduler(opts = {}) {
   const interval = setInterval(() => { void tick(); void refreshTick(); }, 60_000);
   if (interval.unref) interval.unref();
   console.log(`[snapshotScheduler] armed — SNAPSHOT_CRON=${process.env.SNAPSHOT_CRON}, hours=${HOURS_UTC.join(',')} UTC, intraday=${process.env.INTRADAY_REFRESH === '0' ? 'off' : `${REFRESH_MINUTES}m (slate hours)`}`);
+  // Session 61 — settlement is scheduled IN THIS tick (settleAllOutcomes +
+  // settleAllLedgers run FIRST at every snapshot slot, before grading). It
+  // was invisible at boot, which made "is settlement scheduled?" unanswerable
+  // from logs. This line makes it verifiable forever.
+  console.log(`[settlement] armed — outcomes + ledger settle pass runs FIRST at each snapshot slot (${HOURS_UTC.join(',')} UTC), idempotent re-runs`);
   return { interval, tick, refreshTick };
 }
 

tests/unit/ledgerService.test.js

@@ -252,3 +252,22 @@ describe('getModelAggregate — per-tier calibration (n≥20 per tier)', () => {
     expect(agg.by_tier.B.hit_pct).toBeNull(); // under 20 → building
   });
 });
+
+// Session 61 — the odds index prefers a fully-priced book row (the null
+// locked_odds rows from day one: first-seen betmgm SB unders had no juice
+// while another book priced both sides).
+describe('indexProps — prefers a book row with both sides priced', () => {
+  const { indexProps } = ledger.__internals;
+  test('a later both-sided row replaces a one-sided first row', () => {
+    const oneSided = { player: 'A Guy', stat_type: 'stolen_bases', line: 0.5, book: 'betmgm', over_odds: 120, under_odds: null };
+    const bothSided = { player: 'A Guy', stat_type: 'stolen_bases', line: 0.5, book: 'fanduel', over_odds: 130, under_odds: -170 };
+    const idx = indexProps([oneSided, bothSided]);
+    expect(idx['a guy|stolen_bases'].book).toBe('fanduel');
+  });
+  test('a both-sided first row is never displaced', () => {
+    const bothSided = { player: 'A Guy', stat_type: 'hits', line: 1.5, book: 'fanduel', over_odds: -110, under_odds: -110 };
+    const oneSided = { player: 'A Guy', stat_type: 'hits', line: 1.5, book: 'betmgm', over_odds: -115, under_odds: null };
+    const idx = indexProps([bothSided, oneSided]);
+    expect(idx['a guy|hits'].book).toBe('fanduel');
+  });
+});