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report: full-output grade mapping spec + collapse cost measured

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Report-only. Nothing built, reconnected, or promoted.

Premise corrected again: the three-layer engine is BUILT but NOT WIRED and NOT
DEPLOYED (0 python refs in every grade-path file, 0 python in Dockerfile; there
is no engine1Adapter). So no posterior/CI/similarity prior exists to inventory
or diff. Measured against the collapse that actually exists instead.

THREE collapses, not one: (A) estimateProbability's components discarded at
analyzeViaEngine1:521-524; (B) THE SEVERE ONE - p_win never reaches the grade
at all (engine1.js has zero probability references), so the probability is
excluded from grading rather than collapsed into it; (C) grade_thresholds.json
(probability->grade) read backwards to manufacture confidence.
Market-efficiency scaling is never computed - a gap, not a collapse.

MEASURED on 354 settled rows carrying the served letter and the locked pre-game
p_win (forward, not lookahead). Grade->outcome point-biserial r: champion letter
0.0050 (p~0.93, null) vs probability letter 0.1313 (p~0.013). Per sport: MLB
champ 0.0686 n.s. vs prob 0.2356 (p~0.0004); WNBA champ -0.0986 vs prob -0.1258
- BOTH INVERSE. The served letter is inverted between its only two populated
tiers (B 52.4% n=168 vs C 56.9% n=174).

Verdict: costly on MLB, and un-collapsing does NOT help WNBA -> the challenger
must be MLB-FIRST. Five falsifiable mapping rules specced, incl. R2
(uncertainty grades down) stated explicitly and droppable if it fails.

Hard requirement on the next order: persist per-row n, SE and pre-adjustment p,
or R2/R4 can never be adjudicated (not stored today).

Re-adjudication list flagged incl. proj-v1.1's NOT PROVEN verdict (judged
against the collapsed champion, so not final) and ROI-by-grade (with B/C
inverted, the MLB-C +4.57% segment is likely an artifact of a meaningless
letter).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QJs13VsyiSKYQP6rj3NNmc
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Kev
2026-07-30 23:47:11 -04:00
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@@ -426,3 +426,33 @@ are absent entirely.
Recovery is dependency-ordered in the map: decide the grading basis → pick a runtime (recommend porting
Bayesian to Node) → wire Layer 2 → reconnect Layer 3 forward → Layer 1 → per-sport efficiency →
challenger promotion → sport-as-module → NFL/CFB. MLB is specced as the reference module.
---
# FULL-OUTPUT GRADE MAPPING + COLLAPSE COST — 2026-07-30 (report-only) → `specs/full-output-grade-mapping.md`
Track-B 1 of 3. The three-layer engine is **BUILT but NOT WIRED and NOT DEPLOYED** (re-verified), so no
posterior/CI is produced today. Measured instead against the collapse that actually exists — three of
them: estimator components dropped; **`p_win` excluded from the grade entirely** (the severe one — the
letter is a factor index with zero probability input); and `grade_thresholds.json` read backwards to
manufacture `confidence`. Market-efficiency scaling is never computed at all.
**THE MEASUREMENT (354 settled rows, locked pre-game p_win — forward, not lookahead):**
| basis | ALL (n=354) | MLB (n=224) | WNBA (n=130) |
|---|---|---|---|
| champion letter → outcome r | **0.0050** (p≈0.93, null) | 0.0686 (n.s.) | −0.0986 |
| probability letter → outcome r | **0.1313** (p≈0.013) | **0.2356** (p≈0.0004) | **−0.1258** |
**The served letter is INVERTED between its only two populated tiers — B 52.4% (n=168) vs C 56.9%
(n=174).** Probability letters spread 30.8%→70.0%, use 10-11 of 11 letters (champion uses 3-4), and
split ROI −1.42% (A-family n=78) vs −26.62% (C-/D/F n=51).
**Verdict: costly on MLB, and un-collapsing does NOT help WNBA** (both correlations inverse there) —
so the full-output challenger must be **MLB-FIRST**. Five falsifiable mapping rules are specced (R2
"uncertainty grades down" stated explicitly and droppable if it fails). **Hard requirement on the build
order: persist per-row `n`, `SE`, and pre-adjustment `p`** — without them R2/R4 can never be adjudicated.
**Re-adjudication flagged:** p_win→CLV, the skew audit, **proj-v1.1's "NOT PROVEN" (judged against the
collapsed champion — not final)**, the C1 takeable floor, the calibration curves, and **ROI-by-grade —
with B/C inverted, "MLB-C +4.57%" is likely an artifact of a meaningless letter.**