builtbykev
708f0fde5c
Report-only. Nothing built, reconnected, or promoted. Premise corrected again: the three-layer engine is BUILT but NOT WIRED and NOT DEPLOYED (0 python refs in every grade-path file, 0 python in Dockerfile; there is no engine1Adapter). So no posterior/CI/similarity prior exists to inventory or diff. Measured against the collapse that actually exists instead. THREE collapses, not one: (A) estimateProbability's components discarded at analyzeViaEngine1:521-524; (B) THE SEVERE ONE - p_win never reaches the grade at all (engine1.js has zero probability references), so the probability is excluded from grading rather than collapsed into it; (C) grade_thresholds.json (probability->grade) read backwards to manufacture confidence. Market-efficiency scaling is never computed - a gap, not a collapse. MEASURED on 354 settled rows carrying the served letter and the locked pre-game p_win (forward, not lookahead). Grade->outcome point-biserial r: champion letter 0.0050 (p~0.93, null) vs probability letter 0.1313 (p~0.013). Per sport: MLB champ 0.0686 n.s. vs prob 0.2356 (p~0.0004); WNBA champ -0.0986 vs prob -0.1258 - BOTH INVERSE. The served letter is inverted between its only two populated tiers (B 52.4% n=168 vs C 56.9% n=174). Verdict: costly on MLB, and un-collapsing does NOT help WNBA -> the challenger must be MLB-FIRST. Five falsifiable mapping rules specced, incl. R2 (uncertainty grades down) stated explicitly and droppable if it fails. Hard requirement on the next order: persist per-row n, SE and pre-adjustment p, or R2/R4 can never be adjudicated (not stored today). Re-adjudication list flagged incl. proj-v1.1's NOT PROVEN verdict (judged against the collapsed champion, so not final) and ROI-by-grade (with B/C inverted, the MLB-C +4.57% segment is likely an artifact of a meaningless letter). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QJs13VsyiSKYQP6rj3NNmc