Blast radius: exclude projection<=0 grades from the public model record

The degraded grades (projection=0 → model_value=0) are already settled in the
append-only ledger and must NOT be deleted (Data Semantics law). But their
hit/miss is noise, not model skill — they never had a real projection. So
getModelAggregate now filters `.gt('model_value', 0)` on both the settled and
pending queries: the rows stay in ledger_entries, but leave the public hit_pct /
CLV / per-tier record. `.gt` also drops NULL model_value. Post-fix no such row
can be written (projection<=0 refuses), so this only sheds the historical set.

This is the functional form of the "marking" the work order asked for — the
degraded locks are effectively marked as non-counting without mutating history.

Test builder mocks gained `.gt`; a lock asserts the filter is applied to both
queries. Suite 269/3253 green, web build exit 0.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

src/services/ledgerService.js

@@ -445,10 +445,17 @@ async function getModelAggregate(opts = {}) {
   const since = new Date(nowMs - AGG_WINDOW_DAYS * 24 * 3600 * 1000).toISOString().slice(0, 10);
 
   let settledQ = sb.from('ledger_entries')
-    .select('outcome, clv_result, clv, player_key, grade');
+    .select('outcome, clv_result, clv, player_key, grade, model_value');
   settledQ = opts.userId ? settledQ.eq('user_id', opts.userId) : settledQ.is('user_id', null);
   settledQ = settledQ
     .not('outcome', 'is', null)
+    // 2026-07 — a grade with a non-positive model_value had NO real projection
+    // (the pre-fix degradation). Those locks are kept in the append-only ledger
+    // but must not count toward the public model record — their hit/miss is
+    // noise, not model skill. `.gt` also excludes NULL model_value. Post-fix no
+    // such row can be written (projection<=0 now refuses), so this only filters
+    // the historical blast radius.
+    .gt('model_value', 0)
     .gte('game_date', since)
     .limit(AGG_FETCH_LIMIT);
   if (opts.sport) settledQ = settledQ.eq('sport', String(opts.sport).toLowerCase());
@@ -460,7 +467,7 @@ async function getModelAggregate(opts = {}) {
   let pendingQ = sb.from('ledger_entries')
     .select('id', { count: 'exact', head: true });
   pendingQ = opts.userId ? pendingQ.eq('user_id', opts.userId) : pendingQ.is('user_id', null);
-  pendingQ = pendingQ.is('outcome', null);
+  pendingQ = pendingQ.is('outcome', null).gt('model_value', 0); // same real-projection filter
   if (opts.sport) pendingQ = pendingQ.eq('sport', String(opts.sport).toLowerCase());
   if (opts.playerKey) pendingQ = pendingQ.eq('player_key', opts.playerKey);
   if (opts.team) pendingQ = pendingQ.eq('team', opts.team);

tests/integration/ledgerRoutes.test.js

@@ -24,6 +24,7 @@ function mockChain() {
     is(col, val) { b._filters.push(['is', col, val]); return b; },
     not(col, op, val) { b._filters.push(['not', col, op, val]); return b; },
     gte(col, val) { b._filters.push(['gte', col, val]); return b; },
+    gt(col, val) { b._filters.push(['gt', col, val]); return b; },
     ilike(col, val) { b._filters.push(['ilike', col, val]); return b; },
     order() { return b; },
     limit() {

tests/integration/profilesRoutes.test.js

@@ -33,6 +33,7 @@ function mockChain(table) {
   b.is = rec('is');
   b.not = rec('not');
   b.gte = rec('gte');
+  b.gt = rec('gt');
   b.order = () => b;
   b.maybeSingle = () => {
     mockState.filters.push([table, b._filters]);

tests/unit/houseProfile.test.js

@@ -32,6 +32,7 @@ function mockChain(table) {
   b.is = rec('is');
   b.not = rec('not');
   b.gte = rec('gte');
+  b.gt = rec('gt');
   b.order = () => b;
   b.maybeSingle = () => {
     mockState.filters.push([table, b._filters]);

tests/unit/ledgerAggregateScope.test.js

@@ -15,6 +15,7 @@ function makeSb(captured, rows) {
       b.is = rec('is');
       b.not = rec('not');
       b.gte = rec('gte');
+      b.gt = rec('gt');
       b.order = () => b;
       b.limit = () => { captured.push(b._filters); return Promise.resolve({ data: rows, error: null, count: 0 }); };
       b.then = (resolve, reject) => {
@@ -37,6 +38,12 @@ describe('getModelAggregate scoping', () => {
     }
     expect(agg.hit_pct).toBeNull();
     expect(agg.min_sample).toBe(ledgerService.MIN_AGG_SAMPLE);
+    // 2026-07 — projection<=0 grades (the degradation blast radius) are excluded
+    // from the public record on BOTH queries (kept in the append-only ledger,
+    // just never counted). `.gt('model_value', 0)` also drops NULL model_value.
+    for (const filters of captured) {
+      expect(filters).toContainEqual(['gt', 'model_value', 0]);
+    }
   });
 
   test('userId scopes BOTH queries to that user and never touches the public scope', async () => {

tests/unit/ledgerService.test.js

@@ -24,6 +24,7 @@ function fakeSb() {
       not() { return b; },
       lt() { return b; },
       gte() { return b; },
+      gt() { return b; },
       in(col, ids) {
         if (b._update) {
           calls.updates.push({ values: b._update, ids });

tests/unit/nbaSettlement.test.js

@@ -154,7 +154,7 @@ describe('ledgerService.settleLedger — WNBA settles vs the ESPN game log', ()
         upsert() { return Promise.resolve({ error: null }); },
         update(v) { b._update = v; return b; },
         select() { return b; }, eq() { return b; }, is() { return b; },
-        not() { return b; }, lt() { return b; }, gte() { return b; }, order() { return b; },
+        not() { return b; }, lt() { return b; }, gte() { return b; }, gt() { return b; }, order() { return b; },
         in(col, ids) {
           if (b._update) { calls.updates.push({ values: b._update, ids }); return Promise.resolve({ error: null }); }
           return terminal();