tb-v1 report + plan: diagnosis on trial, branch pre-registered
Firing verified on a real prod snapshot: 10/10 total_bases props carry proj_tb_p_over. The snapshot HTTP call returned 524 (Cloudflare's 100s origin timeout vs a ~115s snapshot) but the work completed server-side -- confirmed from the ledger rather than assumed. Face validity is good and diagnostic: means agree almost exactly with the ladder (1.813 vs 1.833), so this is a SHAPE-ONLY intervention, which is what was intended. Component rates are plausible, and Carroll's triples rate (0.112, far above his peers) is a clean check -- he is a speed player and the model sees it. AN OBSERVATION I AM NOT RESOLVING BY EYE: tb-v1 reads systematically LOWER than the ladder (0.424 vs 0.540 at the same mean). That is the expected DIRECTION, since the NB overstates P(>=2) by treating a home run as four accumulating events -- but whether 0.424 is right or an overcorrection is not knowable from face validity. A ~1.8-TB hitter clearing 1.5 empirically sits nearer 45-50%, between the two. I am not claiming tb-v1 is better; the holdout decides. BRANCH PRE-REGISTERED, before the result, so the verdict cannot be reinterpreted afterward: improves -> family-mismatch HOLDS, similarity stays off the critical path, hits is next; does not improve -> hypothesis WRONG and the mean-weakness/similarity branch REOPENS. Also recorded: I hit Number(null)===0 in my own new module -- a null component rate treated as a measured zero, the difference between "never triples" and "we don't know his triple rate". A test caught it. Sixth appearance of this trap in this codebase, and it caught the person writing the warnings about it. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QJs13VsyiSKYQP6rj3NNmc
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@@ -29,33 +29,27 @@ stay provisional until re-run** · documented ≠ verified.
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## ▶ NEXT EXECUTABLE ORDER
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**TARGETED PER-STAT FIX for `hits` and `total_bases` in proj-v1.1.** Diagnosis:
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`specs/proj-v11-diagnosis.md`.
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**AWAIT the tb-v1 verdict, then `hits`.** `specs/tb-v1-compound.md`.
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The ladder's loss is **concentrated, not systemic**. On matched, direction-aligned
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rows (n=437) the real gap is **0.252 vs 0.352** — not the 0.108 vs 0.331 previously
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reported, which was **unaligned on direction across 31.4% under-graded rows**.
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**tb-v1 is LIVE as a challenger** — total_bases modelled as the compound outcome
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it is (per-component Poisson rates convolved exactly) instead of one negative
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binomial that treats a home run as four events. Firing on **10/10 TB props**;
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means agree with the ladder, **only the shape differs** — the intended
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intervention.
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**`hits` (n=245) and `total_bases` (n=49) are 67% of the sample and carry
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essentially no signal** (0.060 and 0.009). Everything else is fine or better:
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**`walks` 0.519 vs champion 0.544**, and on **`doubles` the ladder's MEAN beats the
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champion's** (0.207 vs −0.062). Priors and plumbing are clean; compression was
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tested and **disproved** (spread ratio 0.80–0.94).
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**The diagnosis is on trial, and the branch is pre-registered:**
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- **tb-v1 improves TB resolution** → family-mismatch **HOLDS**, similarity stays
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**off** the critical path, **`hits` is next** (AB-bounded, mostly 0.5 lines, so
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it rides on P(0)).
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- **tb-v1 does not improve** → hypothesis **WRONG**, the **mean-weakness /
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MLB-similarity branch REOPENS**.
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**Hypothesis to test in that order:** the negative binomial mismatches those two
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stats' structure — `total_bases` is a **weighted sum**, not an event count, and
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`hits` is **bounded by at-bats**, so both violate the unbounded-count assumption
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that `walks`/`runs`/`doubles` satisfy.
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**Verdict n-blocked:** 0 settled TB rows carry tb-v1 yet; first settle is
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tomorrow. `scripts/tb-compound-holdout.sql` is TB-rows-only and direction-aligned.
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> **This diagnosis REMOVES the MLB similarity build from the critical path.** That
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> branch assumed a *global* mean weakness; the mean is fine or better on three of
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> six stat families. Similarity may be worth building later — **on evidence, not
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> on this.**
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**Then:** `archetype_x_archetype` → retire/rewrite `bayesianEngine`.
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**Then:** `archetype_x_archetype` (matchup's upper rung) → retire/rewrite
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`bayesianEngine` (keys on 7 non-live stat names; defaults count stats to Gaussian).
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### FOUR challengers accruing in parallel — do NOT re-run early
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### FIVE challengers accruing in parallel — do NOT re-run early
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Verified firing on a real prod snapshot (293 grades), not inferred:
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| axis | coverage | mean \|nudge\| | holdout query |
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@@ -63,6 +57,7 @@ Verified firing on a real prod snapshot (293 grades), not inferred:
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| **environment** | **84.6%** | 0.057 | *(shares the arch-v1 pattern)* |
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| **matchup** (`batter_own_split`) | **82.9%** | 0.015 | `scripts/matchup-axis-holdout.sql` |
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| **opportunity** | 30.0% | 0.142 | `scripts/opportunity-axis-holdout.sql` |
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| **tb-v1** (compound total_bases) | **10/10 TB props** | *(shape, not a nudge)* | pre-registered: improves → `hits` next; doesn't → similarity reopens |
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| **proj-v1.1** (distribution ladder) | **94.2%** | *(forms the projection, not a nudge)* | 437 settled — aligned gap **0.252 vs 0.352**, concentrated in `hits`+`total_bases` |
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All three orthogonal (r ≈ 0 vs projection, `p_win`, line and each other). Each
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@@ -0,0 +1,139 @@
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# tb-v1 — TOTAL BASES AS A COMPOUND OUTCOME (challenger)
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**Date:** 2026-08-02 · current ladder + champion `p_win` **byte-identical** ·
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ledger-only · **firing verified on a real prod snapshot**.
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**Gates:** 4,104 tests / 329 suites green · `next build` exit 0 · tb-v1 on
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**10/10 total_bases props** · holdout committed, verdict n-blocked.
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---
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## STEP 0 — COMPONENTS CONFIRMED ON REAL DATA
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statsapi has **no `singles` field**. But on a real 10-game log:
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```
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singles = hits − doubles − triples − homeRuns
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singles + 2·doubles + 3·triples + 4·homeRuns == stored totalBases ✓ exact
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```
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**The decomposition is exact, not an approximation.** Verified before any code
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was written — this fix depended on it.
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---
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## THE MODEL
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Each component gets its own per-game Poisson rate; TB is their weighted sum, and
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the PMF is built by **exact convolution** rather than simulated (TB support is
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small). It inherits the **same combined multiplier** proj-v1.1 computes, so the
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two models differ **only in structure**.
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### Why this is the fix, in one number
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With **identical mean TB of 1.0**:
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| hitter | P(TB≥2) | **P(TB≥4)** |
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|---|---:|---:|
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| pure home-run hitter | 0.221 | **0.221** |
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| pure singles hitter | 0.264 | **0.019** |
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**A 12× difference at the 4-base rung that an NB on TB alone cannot express**,
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because it treats one home run as four independent events. A test asserts this
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separation, and asserts that P(TB≥4) for a pure-HR hitter equals P(at least one
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HR) **exactly**.
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### The approximation, stated
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Components are modelled as **independent** Poissons. They are not: a plate
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appearance that becomes a double cannot also become a single, so they are weakly
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negatively correlated and **independence slightly overstates the tail**. Closer
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to the truth than what it replaces; **not a solved problem**, and labelled
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`independence_caveat: true` on every record.
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---
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## FIRING ON PROD — 10/10 TB PROPS
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| | |
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|---|---:|
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| rows written | 241 |
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| total_bases props | 10 |
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| **with `proj_tb_p_over`** | **10 (100%)** |
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| range / sd | 0.295–0.424 / 0.045 |
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Real records:
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| player | line | ladder mean | **ladder P** | **tb-v1 P** | tb-v1 mean | rates (1B/2B/3B/HR) | games |
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|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|---:|
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| Ketel Marte | 1.5 | 1.813 | **0.540** | **0.424** | 1.833 | .614/.208/.028/.180 | 106 |
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| Corbin Carroll | 1.5 | 1.814 | 0.540 | 0.424 | 1.815 | .468/.206/**.112**/.150 | 107 |
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| Gabriel Moreno | 1.5 | 1.590 | 0.471 | 0.405 | 1.608 | .773/.221/.000/.098 | 84 |
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**The means agree almost exactly** (1.813 vs 1.833) — both use the same rate
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machinery. **Only the shape differs**, which is precisely the intended
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intervention. Carroll's triples rate (0.112, far above the others) is a good
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face-validity check: he is a speed player, and the model sees it.
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### An observation the holdout must settle
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**tb-v1 is systematically LOWER than the ladder** (0.424 vs 0.540 at the same
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mean). That is the expected *direction* — the NB overstates P(≥2) by treating a
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home run as four accumulating events. But **whether 0.424 is right, or an
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overcorrection, is not knowable from face validity.** A ~1.8-TB hitter clearing
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1.5 empirically sits nearer 45–50%, which is between the two.
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**I am not claiming tb-v1 is better. The holdout decides.**
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---
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## HOLDOUT — COMMITTED, VERDICT n-BLOCKED
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`scripts/tb-compound-holdout.sql`, with two guards baked in:
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1. **TB rows ONLY.** total_bases is 49 of 437 settled rows; averaging into other
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stats would hide the effect entirely.
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2. **DIRECTION-ALIGNED.** `p_win` is P(graded side); both projection values are
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P(over). 31.4% of rows are under-graded, and the unaligned comparison is the
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artifact that accounted for **41%** of the ladder's apparent loss.
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**Settled TB rows carrying tb-v1: 0** — it went live today, on games not yet
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played. First settle pass is tomorrow.
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---
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## THE DIAGNOSIS IS ON TRIAL — recorded in advance
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> **If tb-v1 materially improves TB resolution** → the family-mismatch hypothesis
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> **HOLDS**, similarity stays **off** the critical path, and **`hits` is next**
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> (its own order: AB-bounded, mostly 0.5 lines, so it rides on P(0)).
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>
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> **If it does NOT improve** → the hypothesis is **WRONG**, and the
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> **mean-weakness / MLB-similarity branch REOPENS**.
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Written down now, before the result, so the verdict cannot be reinterpreted after
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the fact.
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---
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## A TRAP I HIT IN MY OWN CODE
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`Number(null) === 0` — again, and this time in the new module. A null component
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rate passed a naive finite check and was treated as a **measured zero**. That is
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the difference between *"this player never triples"* and *"we do not know his
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triple rate"*, and it would have silently narrowed the distribution.
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**A test caught it.** Both `tbPmf` and `tbMean` now reject `null`/`''`/boolean
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strictly. Recording it because this is the sixth time this specific trap has
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appeared in this codebase, and it caught the person who has been writing the
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warnings about it.
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## TAGS
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**VERIFIED:** the TB decomposition is exact on real logs · tb-v1 fires on 10/10 TB
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props · means agree with the ladder (shape-only intervention) · component rates
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face-valid (Carroll's triples) · 12× separation at the 4-base rung.
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**NOT CLAIMED:** that tb-v1 is better. n-blocked until TB rows settle.
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**STATED LIMITATION:** component independence overstates the tail.
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