Audit the LODO instrument: it cannot evaluate any stat, and both prior

FAILs were false

PHASE 0 — the gate at 1f40014 was mine and was an incoherent pair. A 1-SE
informativeness bar with a ZERO-reversal rule: at exactly 1 SE a stable
stat's drop reverses with prob Phi(-1)=0.1587, so on four informative
drops P(>=1 reversal | perfectly stable) = 1 - 0.8413^4 = 0.50. It failed
stable stats half the time by construction. And the pooled n*=70
mis-credited EVERY stat -- too low for hits (own 77) and runs (81), too
high for total_bases (60) and rbi (54).

PHASE 1, blind. Per-stat (g, sigma_row): hits -0.01288/0.11251, TB
-0.01380/0.10680, rbi -0.00884/0.06459, runs -0.00902/0.08080. All four
clear z=1.96 at full n, so none is NO-EFFECT. Committed k=1 with per-stat
n* and a binomial cutoff holding FP at 0.004-0.031.

THE FINDING THAT DOMINATES: the test has no power. Against a strong
instability (date-to-date SD equal to the effect) it detects a failure
1.4%-9.3% of the time, and across every k from 1.0 to 2.0 the best any
stat reaches is 0.337. A gate that cannot fail cannot pass, so
LODO_POWER_FLOOR=0.50 makes UNTESTABLE structural -- "could not test" can
never read as "passed".

PHASE 2/3 cold, at each stat's OWN n*:

  hits  5 informative, 0 reversals, cutoff 2, power 0.093  UNTESTABLE
  TB    5 informative, 0 reversals, cutoff 2, power 0.093  UNTESTABLE
  rbi   4 informative, 1 reversal,  cutoff 2, power 0.045  UNTESTABLE
  runs  3 informative, 2 reversals, cutoff 2, power 0.014  UNTESTABLE

Setting the power floor aside entirely, NOT ONE STAT EXCEEDS ITS CUTOFF.

PHASE 4 — rbi's FAIL was false, as the order suspected. So was RUNS' --
which the order did not anticipate, having classified it DATE-DRIVEN on a
244-row reversal; two reversals in three drops does not clear a cutoff of
2. TB's PASS was vacuous: the test could not have failed it. hits' own n*
is LARGER than the pooled one (77 vs 70), and it remains untestable.

PHASE 5 — deploy basis is now the date-clustered CI alone:

  hits  CI [-0.0139,-0.0097], 4 date clusters   relabelled ci_only
  TB    CI [-0.0061,-0.0045], 2 date clusters   RELABELLED, kept
  rbi   CI [-0.0092,-0.0010], 2 date clusters   NEWLY DEPLOYED
  runs  no fittable map at its split            REFUSE, no CI either

Every deployed stat carries calibration_basis ci_only_lodo_untestable and
auto-demotion is the SOLE stability guard, not a backstop to a passed
test. Stated plainly: those intervals rest on 2-4 date clusters, which is
thin, and it is now the only support. rbi gains chainAcross stackability;
its bands rebuilt on p_win_calibrated (425 rows) are every-archetype
base_rate. runs is queued for the low-param calibrator for the ordinary
reason -- no fittable map -- not on the date-driven finding, which was an
artefact.

PHASE 6 — the deploy set was set by a coin-flip-power ruler; it is now set
by a per-stat power-coherent pre-committed test whose first act was to
report that it cannot evaluate anything. The audit was permitted to wound
the live deploy and did: total_bases lost its LODO claim. Standing
question unchanged -- 18 archetype slots across three deployed stats, every
one a single band indistinguishable from base rate.

Blind ordering held. p_win never mutated. No Bonferroni slot. Counter and
frozen clusters verified file-by-file.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01W1sivYNqY2TS5ftykmHBU9

src/services/snapshotService.js

@@ -276,27 +276,37 @@ async function loadPitcherArsenals(sport) {
 }
 
 /**
- * Stats whose calibration passed leave-one-date-out and may serve a calibrated
- * number. PROVISIONAL: auto-demoted the first time the held-out interval stops
- * excluding zero or the favourite over-prediction flips sign.
+ * Stats that may serve a calibrated number, and ON WHAT BASIS.
  *
- * Gated at LODO_MIN_HELD_ROWS = 70, which is POWER-DERIVED and pre-committed:
- * below ~70 held rows a date's Brier delta cannot be told from a coin flip, so a
- * "reversal" there carries no information.
+ * ── LODO CANNOT EVALUATE ANY OF THEM ─────────────────────────────────────
+ * The LODO gate was audited and rebuilt as a coherent pair (per-stat
+ * informativeness bar + binomial reversal cutoff at FP <= 0.05). At this date
+ * count its POWER against a strong date-driven instability is 0.093 / 0.093 /
+ * 0.045 / 0.014 — it would miss a real failure more than nine times in ten. A
+ * gate that cannot fail cannot pass, so every stat is UNTESTABLE-BY-LODO and
+ * none of these deploys claim LODO stability.
  *
- * hits was WITHDRAWN at 6ae11f1 and is RESTORED here. That is not a reversal of
- * the earlier call — it was correct on the instrument available then, which
- * admitted 20- and 25-row dates as evidence. With the threshold derived from
- * power rather than chosen, hits reverses on nothing. The restoration came
- * through the gate, not around it.
+ * The previous zero-reversal rule was incoherent: at a 1-SE bar a stable stat
+ * reverses on ~16% of drops, so demanding zero failed stable stats ~50% of the
+ * time. Re-read under the binomial cutoff, NEITHER rbi (1 reversal) NOR runs
+ * (2) exceeds its cutoff of 2 — both prior FAILs were false.
  *
- * rbi and runs remain ABSENT, and their failures are NOT underpowered: each
- * reverses on a date comfortably above the threshold (rbi 2026-08-01 n=99; runs
- * 2026-08-01 n=86 and 2026-08-05 n=244). Those are DATE-DRIVEN failures — no
- * threshold and no further accrual rescues them, and isotonic is fitting
- * day-structure. Routed to the low-parameter calibrator queue.
+ * ── SO THE DEPLOY BASIS IS THE DATE-CLUSTERED CI ALONE ───────────────────
+ * hits, total_bases and rbi each have a point-in-time held-out interval
+ * excluding zero. That is the ONLY support they have, and it is thin — the
+ * interval rests on 4, 2 and 2 date clusters respectively. Auto-demotion is
+ * therefore the sole stability guard, not a backstop to a passed test.
+ *
+ * runs is absent: no isotonic map was fittable at its point-in-time split, so it
+ * has no CI support to stand on either.
  */
-const CALIBRATION_DEPLOYED = Object.freeze(['hits', 'total_bases']);
+const CALIBRATION_DEPLOYED = Object.freeze(['hits', 'total_bases', 'rbi']);
+/** Why each deployed stat is allowed to serve. Not one of them is LODO-stable. */
+const CALIBRATION_BASIS = Object.freeze({
+  hits: 'ci_only_lodo_untestable',
+  total_bases: 'ci_only_lodo_untestable',
+  rbi: 'ci_only_lodo_untestable',
+});
 
 async function runSnapshot(sport, opts = {}) {
   const sp = String(sport || '').toLowerCase();
@@ -759,6 +769,7 @@ async function runSnapshot(sport, opts = {}) {
             g.calibrated = out.calibrated;
             g.calibration_reason = out.reason;
             g.calibration_status = 'provisional';
+          g.calibration_basis = CALIBRATION_BASIS[stat] || null;
             if (out.calibrated) marked += 1;
           }
           console.log(`[calibration] ${sp} ${stat} (PROVISIONAL) — ${marked} stackable; fit n=${calibrator.fit_n} through ${calibrator.fitted_through}`);
@@ -881,5 +892,6 @@ module.exports = {
   pushTickerItems,
   ACTIVE_SPORTS,
   CALIBRATION_DEPLOYED,
+  CALIBRATION_BASIS,
   __internals: { propKey, gradedAtFor, indexOdds, lastName, isTopGrade, DELTA_NOISE, DELTA_MOVE, TICKER_CAP },
 };