builtbykev
ced40421ed
FAILs were false
PHASE 0 — the gate at 1f40014 was mine and was an incoherent pair. A 1-SE
informativeness bar with a ZERO-reversal rule: at exactly 1 SE a stable
stat's drop reverses with prob Phi(-1)=0.1587, so on four informative
drops P(>=1 reversal | perfectly stable) = 1 - 0.8413^4 = 0.50. It failed
stable stats half the time by construction. And the pooled n*=70
mis-credited EVERY stat -- too low for hits (own 77) and runs (81), too
high for total_bases (60) and rbi (54).
PHASE 1, blind. Per-stat (g, sigma_row): hits -0.01288/0.11251, TB
-0.01380/0.10680, rbi -0.00884/0.06459, runs -0.00902/0.08080. All four
clear z=1.96 at full n, so none is NO-EFFECT. Committed k=1 with per-stat
n* and a binomial cutoff holding FP at 0.004-0.031.
THE FINDING THAT DOMINATES: the test has no power. Against a strong
instability (date-to-date SD equal to the effect) it detects a failure
1.4%-9.3% of the time, and across every k from 1.0 to 2.0 the best any
stat reaches is 0.337. A gate that cannot fail cannot pass, so
LODO_POWER_FLOOR=0.50 makes UNTESTABLE structural -- "could not test" can
never read as "passed".
PHASE 2/3 cold, at each stat's OWN n*:
hits 5 informative, 0 reversals, cutoff 2, power 0.093 UNTESTABLE
TB 5 informative, 0 reversals, cutoff 2, power 0.093 UNTESTABLE
rbi 4 informative, 1 reversal, cutoff 2, power 0.045 UNTESTABLE
runs 3 informative, 2 reversals, cutoff 2, power 0.014 UNTESTABLE
Setting the power floor aside entirely, NOT ONE STAT EXCEEDS ITS CUTOFF.
PHASE 4 — rbi's FAIL was false, as the order suspected. So was RUNS' --
which the order did not anticipate, having classified it DATE-DRIVEN on a
244-row reversal; two reversals in three drops does not clear a cutoff of
2. TB's PASS was vacuous: the test could not have failed it. hits' own n*
is LARGER than the pooled one (77 vs 70), and it remains untestable.
PHASE 5 — deploy basis is now the date-clustered CI alone:
hits CI [-0.0139,-0.0097], 4 date clusters relabelled ci_only
TB CI [-0.0061,-0.0045], 2 date clusters RELABELLED, kept
rbi CI [-0.0092,-0.0010], 2 date clusters NEWLY DEPLOYED
runs no fittable map at its split REFUSE, no CI either
Every deployed stat carries calibration_basis ci_only_lodo_untestable and
auto-demotion is the SOLE stability guard, not a backstop to a passed
test. Stated plainly: those intervals rest on 2-4 date clusters, which is
thin, and it is now the only support. rbi gains chainAcross stackability;
its bands rebuilt on p_win_calibrated (425 rows) are every-archetype
base_rate. runs is queued for the low-param calibrator for the ordinary
reason -- no fittable map -- not on the date-driven finding, which was an
artefact.
PHASE 6 — the deploy set was set by a coin-flip-power ruler; it is now set
by a per-stat power-coherent pre-committed test whose first act was to
report that it cannot evaluate anything. The audit was permitted to wound
the live deploy and did: total_bases lost its LODO claim. Standing
question unchanged -- 18 archetype slots across three deployed stats, every
one a single band indistinguishable from base rate.
Blind ordering held. p_win never mutated. No Bonferroni slot. Counter and
frozen clusters verified file-by-file.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01W1sivYNqY2TS5ftykmHBU9